So, with the debate tonight, I figured I'd let people know where things stand. This won't be a full update. Not enough has changed for me to do one of those, but I did want to have something to go by because the first debate is tonight.
2 way: +1.5% Trump
5 way: +2.6% Trump
So 3rd party candidates are pushing things one point in Trump's direction.
The tipping point: Pennsylvania (Trump +2.8%)
This gives Biden a 24.2% chance of winning and Trump a 75.8% chance.
What changed? Nothing really. RCP dropped some old polls and it made Trump's advantage go up. This is actually a relatively mild fluctuation, but I did feel a need to update the probability based on that.
If we want a more detailed idea of what's going on with what I consider the hottest swing states:
New Hampshire: Biden +5.3%
Minnesota: Biden +3.0%
Virginia: Biden +2.2%
Maine: Biden +2.0%
Nebraska CD2: Biden +1.0%
Wisconsin: Tie
Michigan: Trump +0.2%
Pennsylvania: Trump +2.8% (Tipping point)
Georgia: Trump +4.0%
Nevada: Trump +4.0%
Arizona: Trump +5.6%
North Carolina: Trump +5.8%
Not as detailed as the chart I normally do, but it gives you an idea. In other words, not a lot has changed, a lot of movement around the edges. Georgia and Nevada are technically lean now, but just barely. Seems more a technicality than anything.
Overall electoral map is largely unchanged minus a couple shading changes that don't mean a ton in practice. 226-302 Trump is where it stands right now given Wisconsin is literally tied. So could mean 236-302 or 226-312 in practice. Still, keep in mind it was +0.1% Trump or something in my previous prediction so this doesn't mean much.
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