Election Update 6/14/24

 So, I lied unintentionally, I wasn't gonna do an update this week, but then I looked at the weather forecast and realized it's gonna be like 90+ degrees next week, and when I do my charts, I gotta do them on my PC which is in an un-air conditioned room, so I'm doing it now. I don't know if I'll be updating coinciding with the sentencing, but after watching how Trump being found a convicted felon has barely moved the polls, I kind of don't care. As such, I'm just gonna update when I update and if it happens to be that week it happens to be that week. Anyway, I do wanna discuss stuff anyway, so let's get into it.

2 way- Trump +0.8%

5 way- Trump +2.9%

Yeah, the 3 and 5 way posting is actually a bit more in favor of Trump. You might wonder why I don't switch to that for the state level polls, and the short answer is that I'm not seeing that significant of a difference for one, and two, there are far more two way polls than 5 way polls. And then there are 3 way polls with only kennedy that are treated entirely separately from the other two. So I'd prefer to just post regular 2 way polls for that for now.

As for the chart:

State	Margin	Z score	% D win	% R win	D EV	R EV
Maine CD1	Biden +12.0%	-3.00	99.9%	0.1%	108	431
Illinois	Biden +9.0%	-2.25	98.8%	1.2%	127	430
New York	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	155	411
Washington	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	167	383
New Mexico	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	172	371
New Jersey	Biden +7.0%	-1.75	96.0%	4.0%	186	366
Colorado	Biden +6.5%	-1.63	94.8%	5.2%	196	352
New Hampshire	Biden +5.3%	-1.33	90.8%	9.2%	200	342
Minnesota	Biden +2.3%	-0.58	71.9%	28.1%	210	338
Virginia	Biden +2.2%	-0.55	70.9%	29.1%	223	328
Maine	Biden +2.0%	-0.50	69.9%	30.1%	225	315
Nebraska CD2	Biden +1.0%	-0.25	59.9%	40.1%	226	313
Wisconsin	Trump +0.1%	+0.03	48.8%	51.2%	236	312
Michigan	Trump +0.3%	+0.08	46.8%	53.2%	251	302
Pennsylvania	Trump +2.3%	+0.58	28.1%	71.9%	270	287
Arizona	Trump +4.6%	+1.15	12.5%	87.5%	281	268
Georgia	Trump +4.8%	+1.20	11.5%	88.5%	297	257
Nevada	Trump +5.3%	+1.33	9.2%	90.8%	303	241
North Carolina	Trump +5.3%	+1.33	9.2%	90.8%	319	235
Florida	Trump +7.6%	+1.90	2.9%	97.1%	349	219
Texas	Trump +9.3%	+2.33	1.0%	99.0%	389	189
Ohio	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	406	149
Iowa	Trump +11.5%	+2.88	0.2%	99.8%	412	132
Alaska	Trump +12.0%	+3.00	0.1%	99.9%	415	126

So yeah, changes. I added Maine CD1 since it was down to 12 points. New Jersey is down to 7. Virginia went down in the "lean" category and is now about as in play as Minnesota or Pennsylvania in the Trump column. I finally got data for Nebraska CD2 from 538 and I have to say I nailed it. I basically inferred the result from the popular vote before. RCP still doesn't have data on it though. Wisconsin and Michigan are practically 50-50. It really comes down to Pennsylvania, which I still have at a 72% chance Trump gets it and a 28% Biden gets it. And that's my prediction for the entire thing. 226-312 Trump again, no real changes. Beyond that, the sun belt got a bit more red, but not a lot. Florida is down to 7.6% which puts it in play. Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska are just there to demonstrate to people how states that used to be swing in the recent past are now hard red, and Washington, New York, New Mexico, Maine CD1 are literally just as in play as they are technically. Crazy map but that's what happens when Biden loses support and you got a third party guy in there like RFK messing with the numbers. 

Honestly, as you can tell, the conviction has little to no impact on the polling. I thought it would shift the race in Biden's favor, but here we are, no, the results are the same. I'm starting to get nervous because Trump is a legitimate threat to democracy if he gets back in again. Wake up, America, don't elect this psychopath.

Anyway I was gonna add a senate forecast but sadly there's still some primaries going on (looking at you, New Jersey) and it messes with my data. So I'll wait until next month. Still, if I had to guess based on right now, it looks like it's gonna go 49-51R. It looks like we're gonna lose the seat in MARYLAND of all places. WHY?! That's normally a super safe blue state? It makes no sense.

Anyway, this map is actually REALLY bad for democrats. There's SEVERAL swing states up for election, and most of them have dems in them. But thankfully, most of them don't seem to hate all dems, they just hate Biden. So the polls are a lot more favorable in the rust belt (with Sherrod Brown even keeping Ohio blue). I guess we're also losing WV because Manchin the DINO is quitting. I know I know, he held the majority, dems love to circlejerk about how its better we have the seat with a traitor in it than a conservative, but still. This is not a good map for us, and it looks like dems will likely lose their majority. How certain am I? Well, Rick Scott is at +5.7% in Florida, that's a Z score of 1.43, and that gives him a 92.4% chance of winning. The other swing state would be a 6.5% lead for Hogan in, again, FRICKING MARYLAND OF ALL PLACES, and that gives the republicans a 94.8% chance of winning THAT seat.

So yeah, right now, we have a 92% shot of losing the senate. We have another 2% shot of a tie, but that's only assuming Kamala Harris is VP. And we could lose the presidency, so...yeah. If trump wins, he's gonna get a house/senate/presidency trifecta. And while we can obstruct in the senate the way he did, I wouldnt be surprised if the GOP just strikes down the filibuster when THEY get power. Because the GOP doesn't care about checks and balances any more. 

We're screwed. We're totally screwed. Hate to be doomer, but I kinda gotta be watching this crap unfold.