Why I stand by my forecast

 So, I've seen other models come out lately that tend to high ball Biden's chances, and I'm just going to say, I stick by my current model. 

A lot of models, like 538's, tend to assume a lot more variables than I do like weighting polling averages or assuming by "conventional wisdom" that the polls will just automatically narrow. I admit, it's possible, if we're trying to predict how things will be 5 months from now, yes, things can change, and if there is movement in either direction, I would imagine it would trend toward 50/50 odds, rather than even more toward Trump. However, we don't KNOW it WILL happen right now, and the fact that Trump's conviction has given us virtually zero net movement in my model either way, I'm not sure if a shift is happening.

I mean, in 2020, Biden won NARROWLY. If I recall, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia were all within a point. Pennsylvania was at +1.2 Biden. I would honestly expect the results to shift downward from there. Trump was weaker going into his second term, which was why he lost. So was Obama. So was Clinton. Bush, he had 9/11 save him but his victory was narrow too in 2004. You only get people voting like crazy for someone if they are a really charismatic realigning leader that someone likes, like FDR or Reagan, and Biden is neither of those things. There's a reason why outside of realignments there's typically turnover party wise every 8 years. 

It seems perfectly reasonable that given the malaise surrounding Biden that his 2024 numbers are weaker than his 2020 numbers. And I think a 4-6 point shift is feasible. It's kind of high, maybe a 2-3% shift is more what I'd expect going into a reelection, but still, that still would flip it to Trump and lead to a situation just marginally better than we're in now. I'd say right now we're at 4 or so points, maybe 5 in the sun belt, 3 in the rust belt. So, I've always known Biden's reelection chances were gonna be, AT MOST, 50-50. And I did expect a red wave in 2024 back in 2020. Because I did understand Biden had nowhere to go but down.

BUT BUT! THE ECONOMY IS GOOD! Yes by traditional metrics, but traditional metrics dont capture how people FEEL, and maybe those metrics dont lead to a good life. GDP growth is not really a good measure of well being, and I feel that even more strongly after really writing out that summary of the history of capitalism yesterday. Unemployment isnt the problem right now. Inflation is. Inflation IS down, but people are still reeling from what happened in the past 3 years or so, so it doesn't matter. People FEEL like the economy is bad, and it doesnt matter if the numbers are good if people aren't FEELING it. This is also, btw, why dems overestimated their changes in 2016. The economy was "strong" in 2016, but people didn't FEEL like it was strong as they were still reeling from the great recession. And neolibs just don't understand this. Their entire worldview is defined by "the metrics" and they dont seem to realize the country is pushing back AGAINST THEM. They have this weird centrist elitism where they talk down to everyone else and dont understand people both on the right and the left (although admittedly this time it's primarily on the right) are pushing back AGAINST THEM. 

So generally speaking, yeah I do believe the polls. I have considered the idea that yes they can change, and I'll account for that. I have considered that maybe they're ALL doing trafalgar effect style bullcrap (ie, giving trump more points to compensate for perceived bias), and that could make them ALL inaccurate, but honestly, nothing about where we are surprises me and seems unrealistic. Well, ok, maybe washington, new york, and new jersey being swing states, or maine being a mere +2 Biden, but to be fair, that could come from a lack of more regular and rigorous polling. We tend to get that sometimes, and keep in mind, polls can be up to 8 points off in my methodology in the final outcome and still be "technically within margin of error."

Again, if I had to guess there is polling error this time, it probably is in trump's favor, in the way that 2016 and 2020 were in the dems' favor. And if there is a correction back toward the mean, I would see it trending back toward the 50-50 mark, rather than even MORE extreme in trump's direction. I mean, Virginia, Maine, and Minnesota going red seem unthinkable even to me. Let alone stuff like Colorado, New Hampshire, and then going into crap like fricking New Jersey and New York? No. Not gonna happen. Maybe VA/ME/MN but the other stuff? Unlikely. If that's the case then the country REALLY hates democrats and based on mid terms, I dont think they hate them THAT much. That's literal "back to the 1980s" territory where the dems are just being hardcore repudiated on every level and need to really do some soul searching. It also means the GOP has an effective lock on the next party alignment and we are completely and utterly screwed. 

But yeah. As I see it, 72% Trump, 28% Biden. Nothing has changed so far to really impact that percentage. We're STILL at +2.3% Trump in PA and that's STILL the tipping point. I stand by what I have. I will update as needed.