This is a question that was asked in a subreddit that I frequent and I kind of felt this deserves as a response, as it does kind influence how I think about 2024.
In terms of electoral politics, not at all. While it was still very relevant in 2016 as many of us still felt like we never recovered from the great recession, for better or worse, I do not believe that it's still directly politically relevant. It may have given rise to this populist era of politics that gave rise to Trump and the Bernie wing of the democratic party (as well as Yang and my own takes on things, being more aligned with him), but since 2021, we've been experiencing the EXACT OPPOSITE problem.
I mean, again, keep the phillips curve in mind. Inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. For a while, we had low inflation and lingering unemployment. Then suddenly after COVID we're experiencing inflation and a "worker shortage". It's not that life is any better than it was before COVID, or worse, but the issues are different. I personally decided during the "recession" that economic metrics didnt matter and what makes a good economy is flawed, recognizing that if we did not experience the recession's set of problems, we would be experiencing a different set of problems more reminiscient of the modern day. That the problem WOULD be inflation, and then people complaining about shortages and "no one wants to work any more" and blah blah blah. You can't win in our economy. And I guess that "down on your luck" spirit still remains in our politics as the recession did break the vision of a good economy in our minds where we realize that hey, maybe this system just kinda sucks, but again, American people aren't that deep of thinkers. As some said in that thread, and as a political science professor told me once, they have the memory of a goldfish. And all they can think about right now is INFLATION, INFLATION, INFLATION.
So in a sense, the great recession is finally in the rear mirror, and the economy has "recovered", if anything the economy is too strong, and that's what people complain about. Because now they're being screwed the other way, while still feeling screwed in general. Again, I guess 2008 was indirectly responsible for this era of economic populism with many wanting change, but people havent agreed on what that change should be. If anything, now the country is turning on the left, blaming them for causing the inflation, and calling for economic conservatism. Which is...again, why I'm kinda stepping off the gas in pressuring the dems. And this is also why for the first since since the Bush era that the republicans are leading the polls. Because they're souring on democrats. Because while normal progressive economic policies do tend to resonate when the country is in a "recession mindset" and worried about jobs and joblessness and the like, progressives do bad during periods of high inflation. because their policies are perceived as causing it, and sometimes DO cause it depending on the situation. I think this inflationary cycle was sparked by COVID and supply chain issues, and then driven up by sheer corporate greed, but voters dont know that, and all the GOP has to do is say it's all of the democrats' stimulus, and this is why government doesnt work, and BOOM, we're DONE for a generation.
Heck, that's how we got Reagan and trickle down in the first place. As I see it, there is a once in a generation economic crisis that does scar the people and decide their economic views. For the new deal people it was the great depression. For the boomers, what drove it was actually carter and stagflation. And then in 2008 things swung back due to the great recession, but because dems dropped the ball, trump happened, and then we had the SECOND "once in a generation" crisis with COVID and its associated inflation, now people are swinging back to the right.
And this is also why I have to say, yeah, to some extent politically, the recession era is over. We have a new normal now, COVID kinda set the bar, and right now, that kinda takes the bite out of progressives and their policies. And this is why I've been able to be more lax and lenient in 2024 than I was in 2016 and 2020. Because I kinda recognize that the game has changed, that now we on the left have an uphill battle, and for now, what we need to do is hunker down and survive the conservative onslaught. We are in a very precarious position now and could end up losing to the right for an entire generation again. 2024 could potentially influence our politics well into the 2050s or 2060s. And if the dems end up falling apart NOW, and conservative ideas become popular and the standard bearer for this generation's politics, we are screwed. We're gonna be the so called "moon" party again and never be able to actually accomplish change. We were in trouble before if only because the democrats are an oligarchy and they were artificially stopping the left from gaining the popularity i think they would've otherwise gotten in 2016 and 2020, but now the country IS shifting to the right. And we kinda gotta operate in that environment for better or for worse.
So yeah. The 2008 recession era is over. It's been over since 2020-2021. We're now in the post COVID era, and that's gonna dictate a lot of our policies and economics until we experience the next crisis. Maybe experiencing a recession some time later this decade will shift people back left again. Economics is cyclical. Recessions happen on average once every 5-10 years. We're likely to experience another one for SOME reason by 2030. And maybe by then, left wing economic policy will be back on the table. But for now, the left has to do what it has to do to survive, and if that means moving to the center and backing up the 82 year old "nursing home grandpa", then we gotta do it. We need to understand the predicament that we are in and adjust accordingly. That is all.
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