Election hot takes

 So, I saw a post where people discussed various election hot takes that seem unpopular on those forums, and I figured I'd post mine here given that I've been focusing a lot on election stuff lately on here.

1) Polling is largely accurate

Theres a lot of questions about the polls this time, but outside of some weird results in deep blue states (which could be from a lack of good infrastructure/polling knowledge and HOW to go about polling such states), I think polling is actually accurate. I think Biden is losing. I think he's unpopular. I think if we operate from the assumption that Biden is down 5-6 points nationally, that the current electoral map makes perfect sense.

2) Minnesota, Maine, Virginia, New Hampshire, and NE2 are swing states

People act like the big swing states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Georgia, and don't get me wrong, they all are. But honestly, not enough attention is being given to the fact that the above states are easily just as in range for Trump as the sun belt ones are for Biden. And they are at roughly equal risk of flipping. Biden better watch his flanks. We don't want a 2016 repeat where we lose because those D+2-5 randomly flip for the GOP. It can happen. Again, I believe polling is largely accurate and the map makes sense if you assume it shifted 5-6 points to the right on average.

3) No one gives a #### about Palestine

Leftists will love to claim that Biden is losing specifically because he is "supporting a genocide" in Palestine. Polling says differently. Almost no one cares about Palestine. While it is possible a handful of Arab voters in Michigan could throw a wrench into everything for Biden, outside of that possibility, no one really cares. It's just a tiny vocal minority that is loud on the internet and in protests, but has virtually no widespread support.

4) Polling > Fundamentals

As the polls shift to the right, a lot of establishment liberal types are starting to put their head in the sands and go with fundamentals type models where they rely on things like economic indicators to reassure themselves that things aren't as bad as they seem, and even come off as obnoxiously condescending to people who are more doom  and gloom. 

As someone who has followed polls since 2008, and even reacquainted myself with 2004's polling, I can say that polls largely reflect the outcome. They might get 2-3 states wrong but the general outcome is accurate. Polls have accurately predicted the past 4 out of 5 elections, and honestly, I do think the polls did indicate that Hillary had more problems than people thought she did in 2016. People just get mad polls arent 100% accurate and get  pissy when they're a few points  off but still within the margin of error.

As for fundamentals, while theyre generally  CORRELATED with election results, they only track if people feel them. We had a "strong economy" in 2016 but because people werent feeling it and still felt like they were in the great recession (and i personally rejected the traditional economic indicators entirely), people went for Bernie and Trump, because they were unhappy with the status quo. 

The same applies now, but with inflation. It doesnt matter if the economy is good on paper. With voters, its all vibes. And the vibes are that Biden is old and doesnt know what hes doing, at least things were cheap when the orange loudmouth was in office. 

This is not to say that things can't even up by election day, but I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic that this is the case. I'll believe  it when it happens. As for now, I live in the reality we live in and my opinions will operate from a perspective that "gee, Biden is in trouble."

5) Rust belt polling may be overestimating Biden

In 2020, the sun belt and rust belt got about the same results. We saw Wisconsin and Georgia have similar results. We saw Michigan and Nevada also have similar results. This time, polling only indicates about a 2-4% shift in WI/MI/PA, but in AZ/GA/NV/NC we're seeing a 4-6 point shift. Why the discrepency? It could be that demographically the rust belt is more resilent for the democrats, but keep in mind, in 2016 and 2020, the rust belt polling significantly lowballed Trump's chances and actual results were about 2-4 points off in the democrats' direction. It's possible that Wisconsin, Michigan, and  Pennsylvania all go Trump by 4-6 points rather than  0-2. 

6) Pursuing the sun belt was always ill advised

I'm biased on this one, but say the previous take is wrong and the polls are accurate, what would that prove? That the rust belt is the dems' bread and butter. Really, I miss the obama years in terms of electoral forecasts.  I literally have the same doomerism with 2024  as a democrat as I did as a republican in 2008. The dems  were unstoppable and everyone knew it. And honestly? Where the dems went wrong was they neglected the rust belt and tried to win the sun belt. This watered down the dems' working class ideological message,and replaced it with a more centrist one aimed at upper class suburban voters, and a more "social  justice" oriented one aimed at winning over some demographic  groups while repulsing others. I fundamentally disagree with the dems'whole strategy, although I kind of admit due to the sins of 2016 that we now have to live in an electoral reality where we actually do have to try for states like Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, despite cringing at the thought because the strategies required for winning them are opposed to my ideological  goals. But again, I live in reality, not in fantasy, and we need to all sacrifice and adapt or we will lose  in this modern environment.

Conclusion

And yeah, these are the big electoral hot takes right now that come off as very contrarian in online forums these days. People have some idea that polling is wrong, that fundamentals are more  important than polling, and they cant seem to wrap their heads around how we're losing. They deny the very fact and withdraw into an echo chamber telling them everything will be okay. Well, sorry, I live in reality. And the reality indicates to me that we are in trouble. We can either face that head on, or we can be as out of touch as republicans were in 2012 and democrats were in 2016.