So one thing I do wanna focus on compared to my own forecast is their little snake thing. This is essentially mirrored by my own charts that I use to construct my own forecasts. And I wanna focus on where they think the state of the race is. I won't do a full chart but I will kind of list their predictions that exist within 12 points.
NJ- Biden +12
CO- Biden +12
NM- Biden +9
ME- Biden +7
VA- Biden +7
NH- Biden +6
MN- Biden +5
NE2- Biden +4
MI- Biden +2
PA- Biden +2
WI- Biden +1 (tipping point to 270)
AZ- Trump +1
NV- Trump +1
GA- Trump +2
NC- Trump +3
FL- Trump +6
TX- Trump +7
OH- Trump +7
ME2- Trump +7
IA- Trump +8
SC- Trump +9
AK- Trump +12
In general, this little snake mirrors my chart, but generally speaking, they are about 2-3 points more Biden favored than I am by raw polling averages. NJ is actually at Biden +7, i didnt include it yet as i didnt do a new forecast, but I noticed that recently. Will it go +7? No. I mean, I do think the safer states might be a bit too trump leaning like NY and WA and NJ, but at the same time, maybe Biden really is that unpopular and people are just handwaving it away.
Maine, yeah I have that at +2, and I do admit it's one oddball poll that pulled it that far down anyway. There's like one poll that's +11, one is +1, and one is like Trump +6, and it evens out to being like +2 Biden. I could see a +6 or so being more accurate.
So I do admit there are things in my own model that don't make sense for me and it could be a failure of polling. Still, VA +7? Eh, we just has TWO SEPARATE POLLS putting it at a tie and older polls being +3 and +6, this seems baseless and I do think it might be threatened somewhat.
NH +6 makes sense.
MN+5, idk, it's actually only about 2-3 points bluer than Wisconsin which is currently right about even in my own estimation. I think the +2-3 for Biden is actually accurate.
NE2, I dont really know where that goes, but I've been assuming somewhere around tie to Biden +1 generally, and most other forecasts seem to reflect that. So idk. I'd say it's probably close to tilt Biden IMO.
MI +2? Yeah about 3 points too optimistic, I have it around Trump +1.
PA, they're at Trump +2, not Biden +2, this is just wrong. 4 points off.
WI +1 Biden? Eh, that's closer. I have it about tied. And I could actually see it in practice as less stable than MI and PA in practice, it's a weird state like that.
AZ Trump +1? Uh...no, that's like +4-5 Trump and I believe it. It only went blue in 2020 and barely, we're down about 4-5 points from 2020 right now. I dont think people realize that. These guys think this is gonna be a 2020 repeat it seems but narrower, whereas I do think that people are more negative toward Biden.
NV+1 Trump maybe. It did go clinton in 2016, it seems like a wild card. Still, polling seems to indicate around T+5.
GA and NC, both around Trump+5 in practice, again too optimistic, and I do believe that. NC didnt even go Biden last time and GA went Biden by 0.3 points.
I really do believe, regardless of whats going on on the blue side of the aisle, that in the middle and on the red side, yeah they are lowballing Trump's chances.
FL+6, eh could do that, but I currently think +8-9.
TX, no way it's less than +8 for Trump.
Ohio, eh, could be as low as +6ish but I do think given the state of Florida that yeah we lost it.
Iowa seems minimum +8, I do believe the +11 as I see it.
As such, how do I view this?
As far as some left leaning states go, yeah I could see the polls lowballing Biden. However, from anything VA onward? Yeah, I do think VA and MN are possibly threatened here based on previous election cycles. I do think NE2 is a wild card that is tilt Biden. The rust belt can do either way, but I would be inclined to favor Trump slightly. The sun belt, yeah, I don't think that that dems stand a good chance at all. They only get those states or come close in very blue years.
I do believe 538 may be overestimating Biden's chances here. This is more like how the map would make sense in a sane world, but keep in mind where we were in 2020, we thought we would get these massive margins for Biden and then he won by the skin of his teeth. Also consider that incumbents running for reelection normally do worse in their reelection campaign due to how their supporters are less enthusiastic and they shed both less loyal partisans and independents. Biden doesnt have much room to lose supporters. he literally needs to come close to matching 2020 numbers to win, and all indications tell me the country has shifted 4-6 points right since then. And that's what the polls indicate. people just really dont like Biden. And I kinda cant blame them in some ways, but yeah. I think we need to be sounding the alarms here, not just be like "oh it'll even out." It might, but I'll believe it when I see it. I think we are fighting an uphill battle here, I DO think Trump is favored to win, and while I dont think it will necessarily be a blowout, I could see anything from 268-312 being Trump's realistic electoral college count and anything from 226-270 being Biden's. I think it ultimately comes down to the rust belt and Biden is likely to win by the skin of his teeth if at all. Trump is favored, Biden is not.
If I did simulations which I have done from time to time, I would likely come up with something in the 75-90% range for Trump probably based on previous ones I've done. 538's 52-47 model seems to assume the race is closer than it is and that Biden will do 3 points or so better than polls currently indicate. It can happen, but I'm not that optimistic.
We shall see though, won't we?
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