So...I did want to summarize what I learned from this experience of reviewing the past 7 presidential elections.
The ever evolving electoral map
We like to think of realignments as like one and done and then basically the map is static for the next 36 years. No. Each president seems to be their own mini realignment. While we might get a definitive one once in a generation, kinda a shaking an etch a sketch moment like 1932 or 1980, for the most part, much like with evolution, there's micro and macro. Clinton (which i didnt cover) realigned things a bit from the Reagan/Bush years. Bush 2 (where I started chronologically) realigned the clinton map, causing the south to become firmly republican. Obama was able to lock down the rust belt and also start bringing some states over through suburbanization. Clinton attempted to capitalize on suburbanization and alienated Obama's rust belt coalition. Biden had mild success in making the suburbanization work, but Harris didn't.
Trump is likely not a realignment in itself
While I will argue I think 2016 is the 36 year mark of the reagan alignment and the beginning of a transition to the next era, I dont think he's a great realigner, no more than Obama or Bush were. The Trump era of 2016-2028 will likely be its own self contained alignment. if anything, I expect that given the trends we're seeing in 2026 with the senate, that 2028 is gonna blow the map open, allowing for the next president, probably a democrat, to be able to build their own coalition with a mandate to govern.
The abandonment of the rust belt was not necessary, but going back to 2012 might be impossible
This stings for me, but going back to Obama's exact 2012 map, which my own politics is heavily based around, might not be possible. Given the electoral map changes of the 2030 census, we can't win with the rust belt alone, since that would require ohio, which we lost to the republicans. It is possible that georgia is going to drift our way regardless to make up for this, but a sun belt strategy might be necessary to some degree at this point, which i see as ideologically compromising.
At the same time...2028 is gonna blow the map wide open
At the same time, that could end up proving false, because of the self contained nature of Trump's electoral map. The fact is, 2026 and 2028 are looking like 2006 and 2008. The trust in the republican party is eroding, trump's coalition is falling apart, and just like ohio used to lean republican in 2000 and 2004, only to swing left in 2008 and 2012, maybe when the electorate comes down from the highs of trumpism, maybe they'll be open to a progressive left candidate again. It's possible. We'll have to play it by ear.
Always follow the data
Whatever we do, we need to follow the math on this one. So many lost campaigns happen because the candidate has some delusional vision that is out of touch with the electorate. Clinton tried to make the suburban strategy work in 2016, even though the demographics clearly werent there for it. Romney wanted to bring back Bush era electoral maps. Again, we can't just be like "let's make 2008-2012 happen again!" If the math doesnt work, it doesnt work. And as much as I'd like to be an ideologue, in the near future, I feel the need to be a team player for the dems due to the trump threat.
Still, expect 2028 to be SOMETHING like 2008
If I were to look at current political trends and what 2026 and 2028 are going to look like, the closest analogue that I studied is 2008. The republican party's approval is collapsing, we're seeing the rumblings of a massive electoral shift. In 2028, the democrat will almost certainly win, although the electoral strategy the next presidential candidate pursues will determine the trajectory of america for the next 8+ years, and possibly far into the future. 2028 could even become like a full blown realignment if things get TOO bad for trump, although I dont think we're there yet, this is more a 2008 shift than a 1932 one so far, although we still got 2 years to go.
Who should be the next president?
If we want to repeat the 2008 phenomenon, I'm for Abdul El Sayed, actually. He has many parallels to Obama. Some say he cant be elected because he has a funny name. So did Barack Hussein Obama. Some say he's an islamo communist. They said that of Barack Obama. Some say his ties to hasan piker will disqualify them, but what about reverend wright and louis farrakan to Obama? El Sayed has Obama like charisma. He's midwestern mamdani basically. The parallels to Obama are pretty similar. I really think El Sayed can pull it off. I think he would be better than AOC or Ro Khanna due to his charisma.
How elections go
Most videos compressed 7 hours of coverage into 5 hours or so. The first 2 hours are normally BSing with little known at first. By hour 3, we start seeing a winner emerge. By hour 4, it's often clear who wins, and by hour 5, it's normally over.
However, there are elections where this isn't the case. Normally, when the election is close, and the losing side overperforms, it ends up becoming PAINFULLY close, and we might get super messy elections like 2000 and 2020. While most are straightforward, elections like this are nightmarish, because here's the thing. The polls favor one candidate, but the energy goes in favor of the other, and the race becomes tight. We end up having a long drawn out process in 1 or more states that become essential to victory where they end up having to count, and recount, and blah blah blah.
We also saw this in recent primaries like Michigan's senate primary and Wisconsin's gubernatorial one. Basically, El Sayed and Hong were supposed to win, but their opponents overperformed and it ended up being painfully close and taking hours to resolve. Sometimes elections are like that but take DAYS or WEEKS to resolve. Anyway, it's all well and good until the loser decides to incite a mob to storm the capitol over it...
Speaking of which...
So...Trump really is a unique threat to American politics. Things got DARK under him. 2016 we didnt know what we were gonna get but the people have spoken I suppose. by 2020 he was screaming the results were rigged and the chilling stand back and stand by comments to the proud boys will go down in infamy given january 6th. by 2024, it felt like democracy itself was on the ballot and we dont know if we're even gonna make it out of this. So far so good, but I still suspect him to try something.
That said, the trump era is NOT gonna be remembered fondly, we'll be wondering wtf were we thinking, and this will be studied for decades, if not centuries. It's like we're in a mass psychosis right now. Once the fever breaks, and again, to go back to the above, I think it's breaking, we might see a HUGE generational realignment. Like, the 1932 and 1980 types. It's been time for a while, but 2028 might end up being THAT. Again, I'm gonna conservatively say 2008 redux for now, but I really do suspect based on the timing of larger realignments and macro trends that 2028 should be "time." It's been 48 years since 1980. We havent had a full on realignment yet. We're sitting on a ticking time bomb on that one, and if the timing works out as I would suspect, 2028 SHOULD be the year. But we'll see.
Conclusion
But yeah, those are the main takeaways I have. Just a few things I wanted to write down going forward. i dont know how these 2028 predictions and advise will age, they're just some thoughts that I have, but I think at least some of this stuff is valid. idk about abdul el sayed 2028 or 2028 being THE BIG ONE, that remains to be seen and el sayed is a super long shot right now, but yeah. That's how I feel about this. 2028 is at minimum an Obama 2008 style moment for dems, and who knows where it goes from there. But yeah, let's see where this goes.
No comments:
Post a Comment