Okay, so, it's been almost 2 months since my last forecast, and it'll probably be 2 months until the next one (which will be the final one), so it's a perfect time to do a forecast now.
Senate
So now we have 8 races to look at with Ohio in the ring. Both parties have 46 safe states. May the best party win
| State | Margin | SD | % Dem win | % GOP win | Dem senators if dem win | GOP senators if GOP win |
| Arizona | Kelly +8.0% | -2.00 | 97.7% | 2.3% | 47 | 54 |
| Pennsylvania | Fetterman +7.5% | -1.88 | 97.0% | 3.0% | 48 | 53 |
| Wisconsin | Barnes +5.5% | -1.38 | 91.6% | 8.4% | 49 | 52 |
| Georgia | Warnock +4.4% | -1.10 | 86.4% | 13.6% | 50 | 51 |
| New Hampshire | Hassan +4.0% | -1.00 | 84.1% | 15.9% | 51 | 50 |
| Nevada | Cortez Masto +2.3% | -0.58 | 71.9% | 28.1% | 52 | 49 |
| North Carolina | Budd +2.8% | +0.70 | 24.2% | 75.8% | 53 | 48 |
| Ohio | Vance +3.7% | +0.93 | 17.6% | 82.4% | 54 | 47 |
All in all, the democrats have strengthened their hold on the senate. Abortion and Donald Trump's antics are having more of an impact than inflation is it seems. I have the democrats at an 86% chance of winning the senate, with the GOP having only a 14% chance. That's great for the dems, bad for the GOP.
House
As I said, I don't do house forecasts because there's too many races and not enough polling data. But RCP has the GOP at 222 safe seats and the democrats at 181. Given they need 218 seats for the majority, it's over before it started. Most of the time you're in a "lean" category on RCP you're basically at an 8%+ polling average. Which means it's a foregone conclusion and the GOP has likely a 98%+ chance of winning the house, and the dems only have a <2% chance of winning. Yep, we're screwed. Nothing more to see here. Unless there's a massive systemic error here making this way more red than it should be, the house is a lost cause for democrats this election cycle.
Governors
Okay, so now we're up to 10 governor races to look at.
| States | Winner/Margin | SD | % Dem Win | % GOP Win |
| Michigan | Whitmer + 6.5% | -1.63 | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| Pennsylvania | Shapiro +5.2% | -1.30 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
| Maine | Mills +3.5% | -0.88 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| Minnesota | Walz +3.5% | -0.88 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| New Mexico | Lujan Grisham +3.5% | -0.88 | 88.1% | 18.9% |
| Arizona | Hobbs +3.0% | -0.75 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| Wisconsin | Evers +2.5% | -0.63 | 74.6% | 26.4% |
| Nevada | Sisolak +1.7% | -0.43 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| Kansas | Schmidt +4% | +1.00 | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| Georgia | Kemp +4.2% | +1.05 | 14.6% | 85.4% |
Democrats are still dominating but it's tightening in some. The insane polling whitmer had last time is normalizing at a more realistic level. Kansas is now in place. My first reaction was "seriously"? I know there were some polls in Kansas suggesting it would be in play in the presidential and then it went like +12 Trump or something. But then again Kansas is PISSED about the abortion thing. So it could be in play actually.
Banning abortion was really a terrible move for the GOP electorally. They were looking at a historical red wave, and now the democrats are coming out swinging as the swing voters are turned off. The thing is a lot of America is actually fairly socially progressive, but they are so like I am. They hate the woke crap, but on the issues, they'll actually trend left. And while they might not focus a lot on social issues, when those issues come under attack in a real way, they'll suddenly become a lot more blue than they would otherwise be.
The thing is, these issues dont affect a ton of people and arent at the forefront of peoples' minds, but they largely do support them. Democrats kind of took them for granted in 2016 with the whole Hillary holding them hostage to bully people into supporting her thing. But now that her predictions ended up happening, yeah, it's creating a blue wave that's really bruising and bloodying the GOP here.
This should be THE election for them. It's their time in the cycle to shine, much like 2010 and 2014. Instead they're just...failing. Hard.
Honestly, it looks like this blue wave is sustaining itself. This won't be my last forecast before the election, I plan to look at it again in late October or early November again, but given my first prediction was in June, we're now at half time, and the democrats are sustaining their leads. They still look like they're gonna lose the house in an apocalyptic way, but they should hold on to most senate positions and governorships to the point they should gain ground if anything.
So, looks like we're going toward split government in 2022, with the GOP exploiting the massive house districts with their rural populations, but losing actual statewide elections.
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