Monday, August 29, 2022

Explaining why "you" are not paying for other peoples' student loans to be forgiven

 So, it's a common right wing talking point these days. You, the epitome of the struggling working class American, making $30k a year in a dead end job, are paying for peoples' student loans when you yourself didn't go to college. It doesn't seem fair, does it?

Well, here's the thing, you're really not. Did your taxes suddenly go up? Are you paying more every month to ensure that my loans, or other peoples' loans, are forgiven? Not really. 

The fact is, Biden just....forgave the loans. And if it comes from anywhere, it's just added to the budget deficit. It's true that in an ideal student loan forgiveness plan, like say, Bernie's, taxes would go up, but he would pay for it with a financial transactions tax on wall street. And while that's not an ideal way to pay for it in my opinion, mainly because the mechanism isn't known to produce a lot of revenue, he could still probably pull it off. 

Biden on the other hand just forgave them via executive fiat. And that just leads to it becoming part of the national debt. And that could lead to inflation. How much inflation? Eh, like 0.15%? So not much compared to inflation overall. Around 1.5% of existing inflation given the rate is near 10%. 

As I said, virtually any idea that helps people leads to some level of inflation. People merely having money to spend causes inflation. The problem is excessive inflation. And while inflation is excessive, this doesn't really move the needle in a significant way either way. You would literally need to pump trillions into the economy to make a significant difference. And even then, we just had that "inflation reduction act" which was basically a glorified climate bill combined with some minor deficit reduction paid for by corporate taxes, so, we can honestly say that this cancels THAT out. 

So basically, if we wanna look at it that way, the money for this is coming from corporate profits. 

The point is, some car mechanic making $30k a year and who likes Trump for some reason isn't gonna be paying for this. At least not in any noticeable or measurable way. I mean 0.15% of 110% (total consumer price index vs last year) is literally 0.00014% of one's entire budget. So if you make $30k a year, you might be paying a grand total of $4.09 in added inflation over the course of the year. That's 7.9 cents a week. Basically a nonissue. 

And while paying anything might be bad out of principle, again, anything good contributes SOME level of inflation to the economy. Merely giving people money to spend causes inflation. And this does give some people money to spend. So yeah. Anything has SOME tradeoff, it's really whether it's worth it for the whole population. And the amount of good that this does for people deep in debt is worth it far more than a couple dollars over the course of a year of expenses does for your typical wage earner.

And that's only because we're not really paying for it via taxes unless we simply just counteracted the reduced inflation from the inflation reduction act. Which, as I said previously, isn't really going to reduce much inflation. So you save $4 and then you lose $4 and it evens out. 

That's basically my best analysis of this. 

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