So...uh, this is short. It includes a line item description of what's included, allowing me to discuss it quickly. I'm gonna be focusing on that, but I will quote other stuff.
Democratic presidential candidate and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has proposed a climate change plan with an end goal of getting to net zero carbon emissions across the electrical system, transportation, and industry by 2050. He would seek to accomplish this through a tax on carbon emissions and a variety of policies to invest in clean energy development and adoption. His primary offsets mentioned in connection with the plan are the elimination of fossil fuel tax subsidies and the increase in royalty rates for fossil fuel production on public lands.
So, it meets the IPCC standards then. Also, like the carbon tax idea.
Overall, the campaign has said that Mayor Buttigieg's plan would cost $1.5 trillion over ten years, and we find a similar cost. This estimate is the net effect of gross costs from clean energy investments and a relatively small amount of revenue raised from eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and raising royalty rates. His carbon tax is designed to be deficit neutral, as it rebates all revenue to consumers.
So, build back better sized, roughly.
Mayor Buttigieg's plan includes policies intended to meet a series of goals related to clean energy production and climate change. These goals include doubling clean electricity production by 2025; having zero emissions from electricity and new passenger vehicles by 2035; having net-zero emissions for larger vehicles, buses, rail, ships, and aircraft and developing a robust carbon removal industry by 2040; and finally, achieving net-zero emissions from the rest of industry by 2050.
Not bad.
Mayor Buttigieg's plan includes several policies with major fiscal effects. These include:
- Enacting a carbon tax and rebating the revenue to Americans
- Quadrupling federal clean energy research and development (R&D) funding and increasing advanced manufacturing R&D to capture and store carbon
- Creating three new funds for clean energy technology and projects in the U.S. and abroad
- Increasing spending on weatherization and creating a home energy efficiency rebate
- Extending and enhancing expiring clean energy tax credits
- Increasing funding for transit and electric vehicle tax credits
- Providing a fund for workers affected by the transition to clean energy
- Promoting resilience to climate change
- Increasing spending on global climate initiatives
- Increasing funding for agriculture R&D
This seems pretty standard. but what can I say, at this point, I like standard.
Again, climate change is an existential threat, but climate plans dont have to be fancy for me. Im not gonna expect elegant policy perfection like I would out of UBI or M4A. I just want the most efficient way to reach the goal. I don't want a massive "green new deal" full of bloat and job creation like Bernie supports, I just want to fix the climate so this species doesn't kill itself.
Mayor Buttigieg would tax carbon and automatically increase the tax each year. There would also be a border adjustment that would apply the tax to imports that were not subject to a carbon tax in the country they were produced. Neither the level of the tax nor the rate of increase is specified, but the revenue would be rebated such that "low- and middle-class households will...be better off economically than they were before." The campaign links to a 2018 academic paper that shows a few different deficit-neutral rebate policies, including a flat lump-sum rebate and a payroll tax cut, to accomplish this goal.
Do a rebate, and make it part of a UBI.
Yeah, I'm gonna go there again. Keep in mind I literally put a carbon tax into my UBI plan.
Mayor Buttigieg would also significantly increase federal investment in clean energy development and use through existing R&D programs and three new federal funds. He would quadruple clean energy R&D funding in four years through programs in the Departments of Energy and Defense and spend $1 billion per year on advanced manufacturing R&D. He would also institute an American Clean Energy Bank with $250 billion in initial funding to finance clean energy development and deployment projects, a $250 billion Global Investment Initiative intended to be matched with equivalent private investment to finance clean energy projects in other countries and combat China's Belt and Road Initiative, and an American Cleantech Fund with $50 billion in initial funding to finance new clean energy technologies.
R&D is nice.
His plan would increase funding for energy efficiency changes in several different ways. Specifically, it would double Weatherization Assistance Program funding (about $250 million in 2019), increase Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program funding by $1 billion annually, create a 30 percent rebate for home energy efficiency improvements, and create a tax credit for commercial building improvements that meet LEED Gold or Platinum standards. In terms of the latter two policies, two credits currently exist for home energy efficiency improvements – one for energy efficiency improvements and one for clean energy specifically – but both are set to expire within the next two years, and a deduction exists for commercial buildings, but it has different standards than the one Mayor Buttigieg proposes and is little used.
I support some of these things at least.
With welfare programs like LIHEAP I'd rather just have a UBI though.
The plan would extend several clean energy production and deployment tax credits that are set to expire in the next few years. The largest is the section 48 credit for clean energy improvements, while others include the production credit for renewable electricity, the credit for alternative fuel vehicle refueling property, and a few very small clean energy vehicle credits.
Sounds very Bidenesque.
Mayor Buttigieg would increase federal support for surface transportation as well. He would provide $100 billion over ten years for urban surface transportation projects and increase the electric vehicle tax credit from $7,500 to $10,000.
Pretty standard. I think Bernie and/or Biden supported the tax credit being $15k though. That might be better. Teslas aren't cheap.
To assist workers affected by the transition to clean energy, Mayor Buttigieg would establish a $200 billion fund to provide transitional assistance. The fund would invest in economic development, training programs, and health and retirement benefits for workers while offering loan guarantees to businesses that wish to renovate factories to manufacture low-emission products.
I really wish these guys would stop focusing so much on transitioning workers to new jobs and just give people a UBI.
We need to stop with this jobism crap.
Mayor Buttigieg would increase spending for climate-related disaster relief and prevention efforts. He would establish $5 billion annual grants for climate resilience, and as part of his infrastructure and disaster preparedness plans, he would also create a $50 billion flood protection fund, create a $40 billion Sea Level Defense fund, and expand disaster mitigation funding by $40 billion.
Cool.
Other policies he proposes include increasing funding for global climate change efforts (including $5 billion annually for collaborative efforts), extending and increasing the carbon sequestration credit, and increasing funding for agriculture R&D and conservation programs to mitigate climate change.
The only policies that would serve as offsets to the above are eliminating fossil fuel tax preferences and raising royalty rates for existing fossil fuel projects on public lands. The plan would also ban new projects on public lands, which would be a small coster.
All of this is pretty standard.
How Much Would the Plan Cost?
Overall, we estimate Mayor Buttigieg's plan would cost $1.5 trillion over ten years. This cost includes the gross cost of the plan as well as the small amount of revenue raised from eliminating fossil fuel tax preferences and raising royalty rates for public land production.
Several of the policies are easy to estimate since the campaign simply says how much money they will spend. Therefore, the clean energy bank and Global Investment Initiative each cost $250 billion over ten years, the urban transit investments cost $100 billion, the transition fund costs $200 billion, and the resilience grants and global cooperation spending each cost $50 billion.
Other major costs include quadrupling clean energy R&D funding ($135 billion over ten years), extending clean energy credits ($110 billion), establishing rebates for home and building energy efficiency improvements ($35 billion), and increasing funding for climate-related agriculture spending ($35 billion).
Finally, Mayor Buttigieg's plan states that he would expand conservation programs and establish a National Catastrophic Extreme Weather Insurance exchange with subsidies depending on income, but neither of these plans are specified enough for us to estimate. The campaign has said the total cost of the plan is $1.5 trillion, so we assume these policies cost $50 billion over ten years to get us to his estimated $1.5 trillion total.
The deficit-reducing policies in the plan are eliminating fossil fuel tax preferences and raising royalty rates for public lands projects, which we project would save $20 billion over ten years.
Budgetary Effect of Mayor Buttigieg's Climate Change Plan
Policy Ten-Year Cost/Savings (-) Enact a carbon tax and rebate revenue to consumers $0 Quadruple clean energy R&D funding $135 billion Establish American Clean Energy Bank $250 billion Establish Global Investment Initiative $250 billion Establish American Cleantech Fund $50 billion Provide transition fund for affected employees/industries $200 billion Extend clean energy tax credits $110 billion Invest in urban surface transportation $100 billion Provide climate resilience grants $50 billion Pledge $5 billion per year to global cooperative efforts $50 billion Establishing rebates for home and commercial building energy efficiency improvements $35 billion Increase agriculture funding for R&D and conservation programs $35 billion Establish flood protection and sea level defense funds $90 billion Increase disaster mitigation funding $40 billion Other spending proposals $45 billion Eliminate fossil fuel tax preferences and raise royalty rates on public lands -$20 billion Expand conservation programs and establish catastrophic weather insurance ~$50 billion* Total $1.5 trillion
Honestly, this is all pretty standard. Nothing about this really stands out as amazing to me. But, it seems to get the job done and meets IPCC standards at a pretty decent price tag.
The campaign has proposed over $6 trillion of total revenue increases to pay for all of its proposals but has not said which offsets would specifically be dedicated to the climate change plan. Therefore, it is not clear whether or not the plan is paid for.
Yeah, although to be fair $150 billion a year over 10 years isn't going to be that difficult to fund.
Conclusion
Overall my reaction? I'm whelmed. Not overwhelmed. not underwhelmed, just whelmed. It's a decent domestic climate plan at least. I do think we should do more to work with people overseas like Biden and Bernie wanted, but other than that, it seems to cover the big stuff. Still, it lacks details. I mean, Biden really covered the how in where the money was gonna go and how this was gonna lead to a green economy. So did Bernie. This seems fuzzy. To be fair, it's a summary though.
This is probably not the best climate plan I've looked at. Arguably it's one of the worst. And here's why.
The big things I'd really focus on with climate change are eliminating reliance on fossil fuels, trying to work with the rest of the world to solve climate change, and conserving trees and working on agricultural practices. This has some of that, but I'm not really convinced that it is money well spent. To be fair this is a summary. Buttigieg's plan is otherwise deleted off of his website at this point.
Eh, it's okay. If he meets the climate goals, it's sufficient. Still, while this is a lot better than the inflation reduction act, I feel like Biden's build back better framework might be better.
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