Election update 7/4/24

 So I just spent much of this 4th of july updating how I do my election predictions. Basically, I started doing them in excel. That makes calculations WAY easier, but at the same time, it might make formatting harder at first. Still, it should be pretty automatic with how it transfers over. Without further ado, let's try to get to it.

2 way: Trump +2.9%

5 way: Trump +4.3%

Oof, that's painful, a whole 1.5% drop or so from the previous update. yeah. People DON'T like Dark Brandon's debate skills. As for the full on chart:

Yeah....just screenshotting this stuff might be easier than transferring it over. But yeah. This gives us a 22.7% chance Biden wins, and a 77.3% chance Trump does. Yeah, odds are going down...

Tipping point is PA, although Nevada's odds have greatly improved. 

As for the electoral map, I'm gonna say it's 226-302 Trump right now, with Wisconsin being 50-50. 

As for the senate, since I did that too, here's the chart:

As we can see, dems have a 7.7% chance of actually taking it, while the GOP has a 29.1% chance. The most likely outcome by a wide margin is 50-50 at a 63.2% chance. Glad that they fixed whatever was going on in Maryland. Imagine that, Maryland going red. You know it's over when that happens. But yeah, 50-50 is preferable to 49-51. 

As for the map for that:

So yeah, that's the election update. I hope everyone likes the new format as it should make future updates to be far easier on me. Putting this together took as much time as a singular update and now I'm set up where I can spit these things out on demand.