So, I just finished the live broadcast of Biden's interview with George Stephanoapulos asking him if he's in cognitive decline and if he is qualified to remain in the race. He argued that he had a bad night and was exhausted not just because of travel but because he had a cold. Is this believable? I think it is somewhat. I mean, the first sign with Biden that I noticed that something was off was him was that he seemed to be...congested. Like he had a frog in his throat and he wasn't clearing it. I thought that was a bad sign, but I guess doing so on stage wouldve possibly looked even worse. But, if he had a cold, and he had a bad night because of it, I can't fault him for a bad performance. Colds take a lot out of you even when youre YOUNG sometimes. I mean we all have days where we feel weird and we just wanna be in fricking bed. Having to debate for 2 hours in a state like that? Ugh. Yeah, it's no wonder he started rambling about "defeating medicare."
At the same time, I've been noticing for months that he seems out of it sometimes. Like, I have this "sleepy joe" impression I do where i squint my eyes and start talking very softly. Biden does that A LOT these days. I noticed it when he was over in Normandy last month. He just seems very old and tired sometimes. Does he have it when he needs to? Normally yes, but as seen with this debate, sometimes no. I'm mixed on this. He's trying to show competence here, and he did a decent job in the interview. he did freeze a couple times to think stuff through, but he didnt do a bad job.
One red flag I had was that he talked about not wanting to do a cognitive test because "the job is the test." I'm gonna call BS in that one. Woodrow Wilson actually had a stroke at one point and was unable to carry out his duties, and his wife did so while covering it up. Some have been saying Jill Biden is doing something similar. I've said it before, I want BOTH of these guys to take a cognitive test and have the results be released. I think both of them are too old and quite frankly, possibly undergoing dementia. So I didn't like him dodging that. I am of the opinion that if you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear.
Beyond that there's a lot of questions about electability. He still believes he's the one who can defeat donald trump. I did believe that for a while, but now, I'm not sure. The data is all over the place, but yeah, let's be blunt. Biden has NEVER been leading the race. Heck, since I'm flaunting my new google sheets powered models, I have the receipts on that.
Yeah...Biden has NEVER, AT ANY POINT OF THIS ELECTION CYCLE, been in a position to beat Trump. And since the debate, his numbers have been in freefall.
For me the question is, how would an alternative do? For a while, I was under the impression replacing Biden would put us in a worse position. If you look at the 11/27 entry on that chart, you can see I had Biden at a 31% chance. I had Harris at a 16% chance in this same time frame. I didn't get much data after that, but yeah. More modern data is all over the place. In one model Harris does do better than Biden. In another, she does better but still cant win. I think I said she had a 23% chance? Yikes. I mean, granted in the same poll Biden had like a 3-10% chance, but still. In another poll, she does about even. In another, she does worse. It's all over the place. I dont have the data converging on any outcome. As long as Biden is does equal or better to an alternative, I say let him run. I'm only gonna actively push for replacement if he's objectively worse than some alternative.
Now, will Biden step aisde? It's clear that he has no intention to, unless God comes down and tells him to step aside, he's not going to. Now, based on my own spirituality, if God wants to say something, he will find a way. Trust me on that. But Biden seems very stubborn. DANGEROUSLY stubborn. I mean, it kinda pisses me off. Here I am, humbling my own ambitions and putting aside UBI and M4A this election cycle, to save the country from falling into fascism, and these fricking democrats are just so full of themselves. Biden can't admit that maybe he is a loser. He cant admit that his agenda isnt super popular. I dont think age is the only concern here. The dems are in a rut. And people arent happy. And Biden thinks he's this great economic guy and the economy is so great and he's high off his own BS. To be fair, neoliberals do this. Centrist dems do this. They flaunt these accomplishments like they mean something and for many, they dont. Its just a giant game of ego stroking for them.
And it's not just him. Harris is just as bad. Harris allies are going around annoyed at Harris potentially being passed over as a replacement and how it would look oh so bad to have a black woman get passed over to replace Biden. I mean, the problem with all of these people is they need to get over themselves. Were dealing with a potential fascist taking over the white house again and these guys are all egocentric about how they have to be the one. They care more about their little fricking ambitions than they do about actually doing the right thing. I hate dem internal politics. This is why i hate the democratic party. These people are so insufferable. Hillary was the same way. ANd the rest of us are just supposed to sit there and support them like good little subjects while these guys strut around like Sabaton's portrayal of Carolus Rex.
Again, if I can choose not to vote third party this election cycle, you guys can choose to get your crap together and try to stop Trump.
And then he was asked how he would feel if he wakes up on Janaury 20th and has to cede power to Trump. He just said that it all depends on if he gave it his all. Seriously, we are at the gates of hell. As I demonstrated above, Biden has persistently been the underdog of this race. The best shot he ever had was a 32.6% chance on May 3rd. He has since collapsed to a 21.2% chance today.
People keep expecting this crap to turn around, that he actually has a 50% chance and that the polls will even up, but as we go into July, Im becoming increasingly skeptical that this will happen. I mean, Trump's criminal conviction did very little to move the polls. He was at a 28% chance then, he didn't move, and now Biden's performance cratered things by 2 points since then. He's now down to a 21% chance, and is still likely to drop further.
We need more, and more comprehensive data of possible alternatives. Im not sure if replacing Biden is a good idea. I have reservations about it too. I'm currently 50/50 on the idea. This might have shifted me to 55-45 or 60-40, but yeah. Point is, I'm undecided. Either way, I do think he's too prideful and full of himself. I also wonder if he's being insulated from reality and believing too much of his own hype.
Whatever.
Anyway, that's my reaction. I still think we should reflect on this, and let the data speak for itself. But, as a point of data, I have mixed views walking away from this. It did slightly alleviate the concerns that this guy is out of it 18 hours a day. But I dont feel confident about this election at all. I think there is serious malaise over Biden, his age, and even more importantly, his policies and the general direction the party has gone in. I dont think these are going away. And I feel like I'm seeing the iceburg dead ahead on the Titanic, and I'm bracing for impact. In general, it alleviated my issues with his age for the time being, but it also raised new questions about his pride or whether he's actually living in reality with his election chances. Because the dude is deeply unpopular, not many people are happy with him, and the age concern is topping on the cake.
See the chart above. he has NEVER been in a position to win. He's been behind this whole election cycle. If the election were held today, he would lose all 7 swing states people focus on and we'd go 226-312. See today's election update on that. Yeah, he's not doing good. We need to stop pretending he is. He needs to stop pretending too.
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