So...what the **** just happened?

So...in a surprising turn of events, Trump is the next president of the United States. He not only won in the electoral college, he won big. I predicted up to 4 states wrong. I'll give my thoughts on what happened in other posts (I'm going to post a lot today), but first I figured I would lay the groundwork by comparing it to my own election analysis.

My predictions: 272-266 Clinton

Look, I knew this would be narrow. The trends in the last couple weeks of the election went from Clinton dominating the electoral college, to it looking like she would win narrowly, by one state. I pointed out 5 battlegrounds that would be important. Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine CD2, and Nevada. I figured if he could win all 5 of these, he would squeak by in the electoral college with 270 electoral votes exactly.I also figured Clinton would win New Hampshire and manage to hold onto the electoral college. I did make a vague mention of other states possibly flipping, but I kind of considered these to be an outside possibility.

So what the **** just happened?

New Hampshire isn't called yet, but it looks like Clinton will get it. Clinton also managed to hold onto Nevada, a swing state that I thought would go to Trump. So I got one state wrong there, but that's not really outside of the realm of possibility. After all, Clinton had about a 42% chance of winning NV.

But it appears that I got 3 more states wrong. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania went for Trump. Michigan is still uncalled, but likely went Trump. So where does this put the tentative electoral map at?

306-232 Trump

Pennsylvania I can KIND of understand. I considered it somewhat a longshot that Trump would take it, but after those 5 toss ups, Pennsylvania was the next one on the list most likely to fall if he were to win. Clinton was ahead by 1.9% here and Trump managed to carry it. His chances of carrying it were only about 32%. Low, but not outside of the realm of possibility. Then you got Wisconsin. Polling was up 6.5% in Clinton's favor, and Clinton had about a 95% chance of winning here, but she lost. In this state, Trump was more or less David defeating Goliath. It totally went against probability. Michigan, which is still uncalled, but is leaning Trump, had an 80% chance of a Clinton win.

Going by my models, it seems the trend analysis seemed more accurate than the independent trial one. Outside of Nevada, the states in the trend model followed exactly, and considering Trump made up to three unlikely victories all in roughly the same area of the country, I think there's a trend here.

What do these states have in common?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, what do these states have in common? Or, really, let's add a couple more states that were give mes for Trump into the mix here. Ohio, Indiana.

This area of the country makes up the rust belt. What's been going on in the rest belt for the last several decades? In short, neoliberalism, that's what. Free trade policies like those the Clintons have been known to support. Heck, as a Pennsylvanian who hates Clinton, let me give a piece of my own mind here. My city has been devastated by the economic recession and neoliberalism. Pennsylvania used to be a place where in the post World War 2 boom, you could make it. But now, the cities have been left in disrepair and decay. Urban centers are sprawling ghettos in a lot of ways here in PA. The situation is the same in Michigan. We all know how messed up cities like Detroit and Flint are. Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, likely similar situations to varying degrees.

In short, the deciding factor, in my opinion, that ultimately cost the democrats here was a failure to listen to the economically frustrated among them. And not only that, but let me tell you, as a far left progressive type, she didn't even listen to us. She told us to sit down, shut up, and vote for her or else. She gambled the future of this country on a game of electoral chicken, and expected her voters to blink, and guess what, they didn't. Because when you're economically frustrated, you have nothing to lose and are willing to do crazy things to be heard. And for many, that was supporting Trump. I don't support Trump, I think he's ignorant, but the idea of "making america great again" was a great vision compared to the 1990s leftovers the democrats tried to serve us.

What are democrats to do?

In short, clean house. The American people just fired the democrats, and the democrats need to fire their own party. Get rid of Schultz, get rid of Brazile, get rid of all the crooked centrists who ignored the needs of the American voter. The only candidate this election who could've stood up to this populist message was Sanders. This is because he channeled our anger and frustrations and had an alternate positive vision for the future. The democrats need to be more populist, they need to listen to their voters, they need to offer them real solutions. The democrats screwed up bad this election. They did just about everything wrong that was possible for them and alienated people to an insane degree. This is because they had no vision, it's because they forced a candidate no one likes on us, and it's because their primary tactics to win people over were not being Trump, fear, and bullying tactics. I can't overemphasize the bullying part enough. The Clinton supporters were some of the most obnoxious, toxic people I've had the displeasure to engage with this election. Between CTR on reddit, media manipulation, and the with us or against us hive mind, Clinton supporters were extremely toxic and vitriolic, and they lost a lot of people they otherwise would've won. By not having a vision, and suppressing a candidate they did, they alienated people more. It all came back to bite them in the butt last night. The dems tried to hold America at gunpoint and the American people said they don't negotiate with terrorists.

I don't feel this is a referendum on all democrats or a referendum on all liberalism. But it is a referendum on the status quo and how people are fed up and can't take anymore. The democrats had a crap candidate and no vision or solution to problems people care about. That's why they lost. If they do better next time, they will win. In hindsight, the dems were doomed for failure the second they chose Hillary. They lost the 2014 mid terms in a landslide and 2016 only increased this advantage for the GOP. The democrats need to do tangible things to ease peoples' economic pains, and if they fail to do that, then they lose. Even worse, treat your economically frustrated voters like crap and you lose even more.

Conclusion

Well, it seems like we all got the election wrong and Trump is winning by a relative electoral landslide. It's still possible Clinton wins the popular vote, but the electoral college is speaking loud and clear for trump. I don't like Trump, but honestly, if I had to look at where these upsets happened, I'll have to point to economic frustrations and the lack of vision for the democratic party to keep it together. We should've run Sanders. If we ran sanders I think he would've won. But the dems had to shove Clinton down our throats, an unlikeable candidate with no positive vision who threatened and bullied people to support them out of fear and guilt, and suppressed a candidate who could've carried this thing. Democrats, I hope you're happy, because you screwed up, royally.