Saturday, November 26, 2016

Why Hillary lost: Comparing Clinton to Romney and McCain

So, I think a good reason that explains why Clinton lost the election comes down to messaging and enthusiasm. I think the success of Trump is kind of similar to success of Obama in some ways, and the failures of Clinton are kind of similar to Romney's and McCain's in some ways. I'll now make some comparisons.

2012 vs 2016

In 2012, this is how I saw the election. We were in the depths of the great recession. Unemployment was very high. People were out of work en masse. America had two major two party choices. Obama was still a fairly charismatic candidate, and while some people were disappointed with him relative to where he was in 2008, he still came off as the better option. After the Tea party took over the government, nothing got done. The GOP throwed a tantrum until they got their way. Obama tried to compromise and move to the center for these guys, and the GOP still acted like spoiled brats because apparently asking to raise taxes on the rich isn't enough when you're already suggesting some budget cuts. Nope, the GOP wanted it all, and it was a raw deal for the American people. if the GOP got their way, millions would be knocked off unemployment, and the rich would get a tax cut. The poor would get screwed and the people who fired the poor to begin with would see lower taxes. It didn't matter if profits were already sky high, the GOP wanted more, and literally tried to push trickle down economics in an era it was clearly failing.

And then you had Romney. Romney was a rich dude who said he "liked firing people", and was so out of touch, it was pathetic. The guy had a car elevator for crying out loud. He sneered about the 47% who paid no taxes, talked about "binders full of women", and became the very image of what America hated at that moment. Out of touch 1%ers who were screwing the workers.

Meanwhile, Obama came off smelling like roses defending our social programs against the insane GOP. And that's why he won, in a nutshell. People liked him and appreciated him for helping them out, whereas the GOP basically wanted to screw them. And honestly, this election is where I became a leftie, where I opened my eyes to how awful the GOP was and changed my ideology completely. Combine that with becoming an atheist that year, which led to an existential revolution in my thinking, and yeah, this blog doesn't reference 2012 for no reason.

As for Clinton in 2016....In this election, Clinton was the out of touch establishment person. Everything about her seemed fake. She was the ultimate stage managed politician, and despite people wanting a change in direction from the status quo, Clinton's campaign was a message of "shut up and take what we give you." In a lot of ways, Clinton was the "Mitt Romney" of this election. I hesitate to call Trump "Obama" due to the state of the GOP, but some people definitely saw a guy who "tells it like it is" and isn't part of the establishment that way.

All in all though, the common thread seems to be this. The losers were both out of touch elitist candidates who ignored the plight of the common person. In 2012, Romney and the GOP basically declared a class war on the working class and got his butt handed to him for it, and the democrats in 2016 had a campaign of "you'll have to settle for less". When your campaign explicitly does not put the interests of the American people at heart, and explicitly ignores the pulse of the country, don't be surprised when you get thrown to the curb. It happened to Romney, and it happened to Clinton and the democrats.

2008 vs 2016

As I've said in other articles I've written, there was also a lot of parallels between 2008 and 2016. I was a republican in 2008, so this makes the parallels even more real. In 2008, the country was in bad shape. Bush got us in 2 wars, the economy was failing, and we doubled our budget deficit from irresponsible fiscal policy. The people wanted change, and the republicans were in their own establishment bubble. I was watching the debates, and the only person who made sense to me in the primaries was Ron Paul. And that's who I supported that election in the primary. He was anti establishment, he wasn't singing Reagan's praises, and he seemed to have a more pure version of conservatism to me. But the establishment won out fair and square, and we got the guy who basically ran as Bush's third term. I was not enthused about McCain. I voted for him, but I held my nose in doing so. I only did so because I was so darned scared of Obama, because all the right wing propaganda outlets at the time kept telling me he's a communist. He had little experience, he talked of hope and change all the time, and I didn't even know much about his policies. I would have possibly voted for a more experienced and moderate democrat like, say, Clinton (ironically) back then, but not Obama. So basically, I was scared of Obama, so I voted for McCain. I was unhappy with the republicans at this point, but I still trusted them enough that I supported them, and continued to do so until I saw the tea party actually do its thing, which scared me more than Obama ever could.

Now, 2016, same kind of deal with Clinton. While I don't think Obama deserves the flak W did for his presidency, and that Obama was largely an improvement from Bush, I do think that the country wanted change. We've become disenchanted with wishy washy liberalism, and in a time where change is demanded, the democrats failed to deliver. They were stuck in their own establishment bubble, like the GOP was, had horrible messaging, and basically told people to vote for them or get a fascist.

Trump himself actually is like the caricature of Obama I had in 2008. He had way less experience than Obama did, has no idea what he's doing, and actually does seem to appeal to the more fascist elements of society at times. And honestly, just like the republicans in 2008, all the democrats had to keep people falling in line behind their fundamentally flawed candidate was fear.

Discussion

As such, looking at this election in context of other elections, it seems pretty obvious why Clinton lost. She was in her own establishment bubble like McCain was, pushing to be a predecessor's third term in effect when the country wanted change. Like Romney, was completely hostile to the American people and sold a message that went over by a lead balloon. Clinton was essentially Mitt Romney and John McCain all in one. The only differences are that the democrats in 2016 are still arguably more popular than the GOP in 2008, and Trump is a far worse candidate than Obama was. As such, while Obama beat the republicans by virtual landslides, Trump pulled a lucky victory out of his hat.

Going forward

Honestly, the fact that the democratic party in 2016 reminds me of the GOP in 2008 is a bit concerning to me. I saw the rise of the tea party, and their extremism is what turned me against the GOP. It is possible that the democrats will become extreme in the next few years in fighting a guerilla war against Trump's presidency. In some ways, this isn't necessarily bad because I do think the dems need to move left. But at the same time, I hope they don't resort to the same negative identity and senseless obstruction the GOP did. Sanders, the de facto head of the left wing of the democratic party seems to have a more reasonable approach, but I wouldn't be surprised if the establishment dems try to whip up irrational fear and hatred of Trump in order to continue pushing their corporatist agenda, while sabotaging themselves at the same time. I think that the democratic party has a lot of room to make positive change, but it could also morph into something worse like the republican party did. It really depends on how they self reflect and whether they actually care to improve themselves, vs. just trying to get back in power without addressing their core issues first.

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