I figured I'd do daily updates until Monday, in which I do a deeper analysis. Anyway, let's get to it.
Current Election Map - 297-241 Clinton
The big things that changed are that North Carolina, Maine CD2 and New Hampshire are now in the Trump camp, whereas Florida is now leaning Clinton. Make no mistake, these states are the ones most likely to decide the election. They have the weakest margins at the moment and are clearly fluctuating between the two candidates.
That being said, while Clinton's electoral count went up, this is only because Florida flipped to Clinton in the last day. If she can't maintain it without grabbing back North Carolina and one other state, she's still going to lose.
Florida is currently leaning toward Clinton by 1.2%. This means that the standard deviation from the mean that would allow Trump to win is 0.3. This means that there's a 61.8% chance that Clinton will win and a 38.2% chance that Trump wins. Clinton's chances are improving again all things considered but she's still not in a very comfortable position relative to where she's been for most of the election cycle.
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