So....I ain't gonna do an entirely new election prediction based on the new polls because, quite frankly, the margins didn't change much mostly, but a lot of people are seeing these new polls and are kinda crapping their pants. I've seen a lot of people saying that we're screwed, Biden should pull out, we should get someone else, blah blah blah.
And I really have to ask, have these people been paying attention at all? The polls have BEEN like this. it was a miracle we held the line as well as we did in 2022. The polls have been largely predicting doom and gloom since a few months after Biden took office. And that's normal. When the party takes power, they often are in charge, everything that goes right or wrong is on them whether it's their fault or not, and poll numbers decline.
And the fact is, NO ONE REALLY WANTED BIDEN IN THE FIRST PLACE. The democrats have this thing where they shove candidates down peoples' throats. In 2016 they did it with Clinton, destroying immense amounts of goodwill toward the party that had built through the obama era, and by the time election day came around, Trump eeked out just enough support to win. If Clinton HAD won, she almost certainly would've faced electoral oblivion in 2020. Because no one wanted her and democratic support has declined every election cycle since 2008. It's very rare for a party to hold onto the presidency for more than 8 years, and when you start going 12+, yeah no, it's never gonna happen. Only under FDR and the new deal coalition was the democratic party able to hold onto the presidency for a straight 20 years. Before that, I think the republicans held it from 1860 to 1876, so 16 years. If you can tell we only get these abnormally long periods of one party holding power when there's a realignment and that party is genuinely popular. Even then nothing lasts forever and eventually the other party does win again.
And here's the thing, the democratic strategy for running for office isn't working. Obama's election in 2008 almost felt like a realignment. In the long term it turned out to only be a blip or abnormality, but up through 2016 it did seem inevitable the future was democratic and not republican. But again, the democrats destroyed their goodwill in 2016, where if clinton won, she would've BARELY won, and in 2020, the democrats would've lost anyway. In 2020, Biden was just...another Hillary. He was a candidate that no one was really passionate about. If anything, the democratic party worked to once again subvert a bernie nomination and then forced Biden on us. And most people only voted for him, to get rid of trump. Just as 2016 was a referendum on the democrats, 2020 was a referendum on trump. And now 2024 is a referendum on Biden. And Biden is doing very poorly. He did a few good things in his opening months of office, but between extreme inaction due to the other branches of government, and mounting issues like inflation, as well as a lot of more...ahem...imaginary ones like crime and drugs and the border and stuff like that, Biden just isn't popular. A lot of people are trying to pin Israel support on his flailing numbers, but as we saw, that's...not really the issue. Honestly? Thinking about it the last few days, I think it's what I would normally say, that republicans are fired up, and democrats...aren't.
Could things change if we got rid of Biden? Probably not. The incumbency has massive advantages, and despite this one poll saying a generic democrat would destroy trump, the second that generic democrat is named people end up thinking they're WORSE than Biden. Hence my defense of Biden. If I could see clear, consistent evidence over the next couple of months suggesting Biden is the issue specifically and ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT would do better, I would ask him to step aside, but as long as they're not, I say let things go as they are. I doubt another face would solve the problem. The democrats' problems are deeper and more coalitional than Biden. Biden and his oldness is just a symptom, not a cause. The whole party is old and geriatric. We've had the same people in power since the 80s and 90s, and that whole generation's politics sucks. Older dems like it, but older dems literally lived most of their lives in an era where settling for less was all democrats could do. Remember, Reagan destroyed the democratic party as it was and they HAD to moderate by the 1990s to be "electable", and it's that strategy that we've had through the 90s, the 2000s, and started getting old in the 2010s and is WELL past its expiration date in the 2020s.
If democrats ever want to be the party people want as a first choice, and not just an alternative to republican party rule, they need to shape up. However, due to the malaise surrounding the party, I'm not sure that the party COULD run someone else and get anywhere. Because it's not just the presidency. Even Biden was quite progressive by neoliberal standards. But...he was blocked for most of his presidency. And so would Bernie, or Yang, or Williamson, or anyone else I can name. Which is why i aint really prioritizing a more progressive candidate. I'm not even sure someone more progressive could win. That's how deep the hole the democrats have dug themselves is. A lot of people WANT another democrat, but they want the imaginary perfect democrat in their heads, and that doesnt exist. Trust me, I would know, I'm one of these people. Like, I get it. I want the democrat with the right ideas and who could implement them. I want someone who both has Biden's experience, and the youth of someone in their 40s, and who supports UBI and universal healthcare and stuff. But...again, we gotta fight with the army we have, not what we want, and we kind of are limited on options. I'm really gritting my teeth wondering, is cornel west and marianne williamson the best the progressive movement can do post Bernie? Like I dont think people realize this, but Bernie was one of a kind. He COULDVE been our "reagan" or modern FDR. He did have the experience, pragmatism and progressivism all in one. The modern left doesnt hit like Bernie does. Because a lot of what we call leftists now make Bernie (or me) look like raging moderates. I saw people ripping Bernie for saying we cant have a cease fire with hamas and I'm just like, "why are you booing, he's right?" A lot of these bernie successors just lack experience, or they lack expertise, or have cringey policies here and there. And the centrists, forget it. You can replace Biden with any Biden clone that's younger out there and I actually suspect they'd poll worse. Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg. Because what people are frustrated with is the government inaction, and democrats not fighting for things. Biden is literally just a symptom here. Which is why replacing him just...makes the numbers worse.
Should the dems open up their primary process? Yes. Like in 2016 and 2020, they've been extremely hostile and anti competitive to Biden challengers, and are basically trying to rig the process again. They put South Carolina first in order to get the black vote in south carolina behind biden again to stifle competition, and they're perpetually denying serious coverage to any challengers. The process exists to manufacture consent for a candidate no one wants and not give them a real choice.
Speaking of the black vote, a huge reason for Biden's loss in support is losing a lot of those minority coalitions that the democrats rely on. Remember what I said a few years ago discussing the democratic party. There are three factions. You got centrists, progressives, and then minority voters who are mostly pacified with identity politics. In 2016 and 2020, the democrats led obnoxiously into identity politics and weaponized that stuff to insane degrees, often acting like progressives are racist, sexist, privileged, or otherwise not good for minorities. But....it seems like centrists aren't appeasing them any more. Because they dont see their lives getting better (who knew?). I know I saw anecdotally someone claiming in their minority community they often heard people say that they see Biden spending all of this money on Ukraine and Israel, why not invest it into their communities?
And you know what? THey're right. I actually live in a minority-majority neighborhood. Im quite literally the only white dude on my block. And you know what? I concluded the only thing that would truly help my community is a UBI. I'm a progressive because I live in these kinds of conditions, I understand the issues at work, and understand we need a massive injection of cash into these communities through a UBI. Nothing else is gonna fix these communities. Not jobs programs, and certainly not CENTRISM.
But I'm still talked to by "woke" people and their stupid performative morality acting like they care so much while they don't wanna do anything. And it seems like people are waking up. Sadly, they're waking up when a fascist is the alternative and if current dude isn't reelected we might literally lose democracy itself.
I mean, I hope people can understand where I'm coming from here. I've been fighting and fighting for the progressive movement and progressive policies for years, but the dems kept going in a different direction, taking the path of inaction, and now their support is imploded and trump is up several points in most crucial swing states. We've shifted 5 points since 2020. Biden WON by 1.2 points in effect. So we're screwed.
I'm not saying things CANT change. In 2022, polling shifted on a dime when the republicans overturned roe v wade. From then on the dems were ahead and we had a repeat of 2020. But now we're back to things looking awfully red. Can things shift next year? Yes. Should we count on that? No. What can we do? I'm not really sure. We're kinda screwed.
As I said, despite all the claims that people want someone else (and maybe they do), the second the alternative is NAMED, people end up hating them more than Biden. And that goes for progressives too. We can't win. This might be one of "those" election cycles like 1976 where you just dont wanna be in power when things go down and winning that one election is akin to throwing away the war in the greater arc of history. I've been wanting to avoid that. As I said in 2016, if 4 years of trump implodes the GOP and gives us a progressive revolution, so be it. But instead, we got joe biden and now the dems have screwed themselves anyway.
Again, would've happened if clinton won too. 2020 would've been an electoral reckoning if clinton was in office at the time. Just as bad as this or worse. Maybe at least we would've had the court though. Idk. That sounds like the only bright side.
But yeah. Again, I wish I could be more optimistic about things, but im a realist and this is where we are. I keep feeling like we're back in the late 1970s with carter on the edge of electoral oblivion and it scares me. Things shouldn't have gone this way. And honestly, I blame the DNC more than anyone. Rather than just give people what they wanted they had to burn their goodwill playing electoral chicken with their voters trying to force candidates on people no one wanted, and here we are. Up a creek without a paddle.
*sigh*
This does not look good. I'm actually a doomer too.
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