So, I ended up compiling a new table I'll use with predictions and ended up making a new prediction in the process. So let's discuss where we stand with 2024.
Right now Trump is ahead of Biden by 2.6%
If you include third parties, Trump's lead extends to 6.0%
And of course, Trump and Biden are the overwhelming favorite among their parties' respective electorates. I would castigate the electorate for being so dumb, but then again we all know the Trumpers aren't winners and the democrats seem held together out of pure fear and resentment of the republicans. Not a very good place for democracy to be in.
As far as how this plays out on the state level, here's the chart I mentioned:
Yeah I decided to include all of those states that are kind of close to being "in play" in my methodology (within 8 points) but wouldn't normally be included. Scary that New York, a democratic bastion, is almost as close to being in place as previous bellweathers like Ohio and Florida. They went D as recently as 2012 with Obama, for reference. So it's scary to see how hard R these places are going.
Anyway, a lot of small details changed, but the big picture....mostly the same as last time. Trump has a 69% chance of winning, and Biden has a 31% chance. The electoral college would go 302-236 in favor of Trump, which is a slight improvement for Biden (and no, I won't post a map this time, yapms broke all my links and idk what's going on with them). So about typical this election cycle so far. Not saying it's impossible for Biden, he can make a come back. Polls can shift a few points toward Biden. Biden arguably has a similar chance to win as Trump did as well as he did on election day. It's within the margin of error. But let's face it, the polls are normally MOSTLY accurate. Unless we DO see a 2016 style shift toward Biden, we're kinda screwed.
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