So, I'm not going to do a whole new election prediction off of a new round of polls, but I see people talking about these new NYT polls and how we're doomed. And I really have to ask, have these guys been paying attention? Biden has BEEN screwed, the entire national environment has shifted 5 points from where it was in 2020.
In a lot of ways, people think this is a specific Biden problem, and the new polls imply an alternative (like Harris) would do better, and that a "generic democrat" would win the election.
But there are problems with this. While yes, this specific poll does imply an alternative like Harris would do better, the larger national environment argues differently. Biden is 0.9% behind in the popular vote, but Harris is behind by 4.3% nationally. And this has reflected all the data I've seen since 2020. One poll does not make a trend. We need consistent data showing that we would be better off replacing Biden. I would at least like to see the averages (with multiple recent polls) showing that yes, Harris would do better than Biden. Or someone else even.
Like, I'm not married to Biden here as a candidate. I'm only supporting him as the default choice and because most evidence I've seen suggests he's the most electable. Trust me, if Harris polled better, I'd be telling Biden to GTFO and give it to harris. i actually like harris better. As we saw when I went over her policies last year, I like her BETTER than Biden. Her 2020 healthcare plan was basically a modified version of medicare extra for all. And her LIFT act was like a mini UBI, so hell yeah, given me harris over Biden. She's the most progressive centrist democrat by far.
But...again. I'm gonna need a little more to go on than ONE poll.
Here's my theory about this. Yes, generic democrats do better, and most people arent enthusiastic about Biden, hell, I'm not enthusiastic about Biden. I'm defending him like I'd defend carter going in the 1980 election. Not because I like him, just because i fear the electoral implications of his opponent winning. The problem is, if you name an alternative, polls generally go DOWN for democrats, NOT up. Yes, this ONE POLL goes up slightly, but remember what i said about polling and errors yesterday. A -5 for Biden is basically a -9 to a -1. A -3 for Harris is -7 to +1. It could very well be possible that Biden is closer to -1 and Harris is closer to -7. This is why averages tend to tell a better story than individual polls. Everyone focuses so darned much on individual polls when it's the trend that's important. And the trend DOES NOT reflect what this one poll says.
Look, my stance should be clear. I just called Biden the warm water and saltine crackers president the other day. Because that's how appetizing the idea of voting for the guy is. it's like, ugh, do I have to eat this? And it's like...what's the alternative?
I've struggled with this all election cycle. The alternatives to Biden mostly suck. The other centrists are just as generic and tend to poll worse in averages. And even progressives have lost their luster. Bernie is too old (he's literally as old or older than Biden) and im sorry but marianne williamson is not a good replacement. The fact is bernie doesnt HAVE a good replacement. And even then, I havent seen bernie or progressive dems outpolling Biden either. Bernie would've done worse than Biden in 2020 (although I'd still argue he would've won, he would've kept wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania but lost georgia and arizona), and honestly, it's all downhill from there.
The reason I come back to Biden is because he DOES seem to generally have an incumbency advantage and no named alternatives will actually bring people into the democrats, regardless of what people say on the matter. Everyone wants an alternative to Biden, but no one can agree on who that should be or what it looks like. And the second anyone is put up, getting the party behind them is like herding cats. Hopefully it will be different in 2028, but in 2024, THIS IS WHERE WE ARE!
Things can change. We're a year out from election day on the nose. We got 366 days (2024 is a leap year) to get our crap together. Im just hoping Biden's numbers improve and enough people hold their nose to elect the guy again.
I almost sympathize with the blue no matter who voter shamers here. The electorate is fickle as fudge, they're attacking Biden for things that arent even his fault, and it really is frustrating to be for the democrats right now. We literally are facing an existential threat to our democracy in donald trump, and people just arent enthused.
Even worse when i went into the actual causes for that and people are blaming Biden for inflation that's mostly over, and people are complaining about republicans and democrats not getting along, and freaking out over issues like drugs and crime and crap. I swear, half the country is in their little alternative reality and mere placebos are enough to appease them. We know all the people complaining will, if trump was elected, suddenly start going on about how great things are.
But at the same time, I kinda get it. I have to admit, the democrats dug themselves into this mess. They forced Biden on us in 2020. We could've had bernie in 2016, or in 2020. The democrats fought progressives as hard as they fight the trumpers. And then they tried to force us behind a candidate we didnt want. I predicted this would happen BACK THEN. That Biden's numbers would implode, that no one would like the guy, because let's face it, the only reason people came out for him was to get rid of trump. That's it. Thats all the democrats had. The same crappy status quo would persist, he would be ineffective in addressing it, and the dems would say everything's fine when it's not.
Well...it's 2023 and here we are. The DNC literally dug us into a hole. And now we're facing electoral oblivion. Way to go guys, way to go.
And you know what, to some extent i dont blame the voters. The party has to do what the voters want or they lose support. And Biden has kinda done the bare minimum. I admit, it's mostly because of congress and the courts. Not Biden. Biden aint as left as I'd want at times, but he wouldve done at least some decent half measures if given the chance. We could've ideally gotten a $15 minimum wage, a public option with automatic enrollment, free community college and $20k in student debt forgiveness, build back better, paid family leave, free daycare and preK, the child tax credit, etc. He wanted to do all of that. But he was blocked. Not just by the GOP, but turncoats in his own party (seriously, screw you Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema). I could kinda live with that at this point. Doesnt mean I wouldnt still push for UBI and a few other progressive measures here and there, but Biden could've actually gotten us like halfway there.
But instead, we got next to nothing because of further right dems, and now we're facing electoral oblivion.
It really sucks to be on the left right now. Warned people this would happen but here we are. Anyway, I just wanna get us out of this rut so we can actually win elections and keep fascists out of the white house at the moment. ANd I really dont know how, and right now, I do think sticking with Biden is for the best. If the evidence changes surrounding that fact, I am open to change my mind. Again, not super enthusiastic about biden. He's literally like eating saltines and old bottled water in your car's cup holder. But again, what else can we do? I'm a numbers guy, and Im not convinced replacing Biden IS the best move here.
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