Monday, September 30, 2024

Discussing Nate Silver's model and why it predicts a blowout as the most likely scenario

 So, Nate Silver has an article where he talks about the "128 paths to the white house", and how generally speaking, the most likely paths are either a Trump or Harris blowout where they win all 7 swing states. 

I know I have that kinda crappy and amateurish simulation where i predict all the possibilities for how the election can go, but it rarely predicts all 7 swing states going the same way. But this is because it avoids the more linear model for how polling goes. It treats each state has an independent trial not linked to the others, when in reality, we can expect a candidate to over/underperform systemically. 


Here's the most recent election data from today. As we can see, Trump is winning now, with a 52% chance, to Harris's 48% chance. The margins fluctuate daily and my formal predictions happen once a week. Let's see where it goes over the rest of this week before panicking about that. I'm just posting this to make a point. 

If you treat elections linearly where if a candidate overperforms in 1 state they may overperform in all of them, and that performance between states is related to national trends, then I guess the above model also predicts a blowout is the most likely scenario. 

31% of outcomes should have Harris winning all 7 states. On the flip side, 36% have Trump winning all 7. 

And any combination of the states is gonna be the other 33%. 

That's the reality of the election. The 7 states are so close any major shifts in the national environment relative to polling will produce a blowout outcome for either candidate. This is why, even when Biden was down, I gave him like a 25% chance on average (although it dropped to 13% by the time he dropped out). If Trump overperformed, trump would win, if the candidates performed as the polls predicted, Trump would win, but if Biden overperformed by so many points, he could win. His window was narrowing significantly post debate, but for a while I estimated Biden still had a 20-30% shot at winning, and that's what my prediction numbers really mean.

This is also why I say that we shouldnt worry about anything as long as it's within the 60-40 zone. because ANY over/underperformance for EITHER candidate could flip the whole thing one direction or another. Right now, Trump is at 52%, Harris at 48%, last week Harris was at 59% and Trump at 41%. Are the two that statistically different from each other? Not really. If Harris overperformed even a point, she'd win. If Trump did, he would flip the entire result. If any candidate overperforms by 2 points, they win all 7 swing states. That's the reality of the race right now. it's that close. And Silver says up to 3-4 points is just normal polling error. For one standard deviation, that's correct. I admit, my model has a little less certainty and spread if he's assuming a 95% confidence interval as you could be off by up to 8 points and still be in the margin of error, but still. That's the reality of things. And that's why this race is anyone's game. You really need to be ahead by several points for the race to really be skewed in favor of one candidate or another. Right now, ANY randomness could throw the election either way. 

And yeah, I just wanted to discuss my perspective on nate's article.

Defending Trump's overtime comments.....kind of

 So, this is gonna be a bit of a spicy one from me given I'm more left than right, and normally more pro working class and pro worker (even if I am elitist toward some working class oriented ideas), but I heard Trump's comments about overtime today, and he's getting ripped for this, but idk, depending on what he means, this isn't necessarily...that bad to me. Let me post the exact quote of what he said.

“I know a lot about overtime. I hated to give overtime. I hated it. I’d get other people, I shouldn’t say this, but I’d get other people in. I wouldn’t pay,”

 So...let me just start by saying, if he plans to get rid of the idea of overtime pay as is talked about in project 2025, F that guy. And if he did something blatantly illegal by "getting other people in", F that guy.

But, let's talk about this idea otherwise. So...here's the thing with overtime pay. Here's why you get it. It's to discourage overtime. The idea of overtime goes back to FDR's Fair Labor Standards Act and the 40 hour work week. The goal was to 1) limit the work week for most workers to 40, and 2), reduce unemployment.

You see, when you're in the great recession, where unemployment is 25%, you have two major problems. You got a ton of people who aren't being hired who want to find work, and you have businesses abusing the poor souls who do have jobs to death and telling them they should be grateful for the opportunity because they could enjoy the ranks of the unemployed. It's the same thing the businesses did during the great recession where it seemed like businesses fired half their work force and worked the other half twice as hard, making them pick up the responsibilities of those who left, while telling them they're lucky to have a job. 

In a sense, in FDR's day, the goal of the FLSA in this sense was to limit as many workers as possible to an 8 hour day, and thus encourage "work sharing" where businesses would then hiring more people, thus reducing unemployment.

Put another way: say a business has 24 hours worth of work it needs done in a work day. It can either hire 2 people at 12 hours a day, or 3 people at 8 hours a day. And obviously, most businesses would prefer, without regulation, to hire 2 people at 12 hours a day. And then if the worker complains about being worked too hard, they're told they're lucky to have a job, because they could be the third guy out on the street with NO job. So the 8 hour work day and overtime pay basically economically disincentivized businesses from working people more than 12 hours. Instead, they'd hire people for 8 hours a day, and then hire an extra person to pick up the rest of the load. This both ensured good work life balance for the workers themselves, and also lead to more widespread employment, and lower unemployment. 

The point of paying people time and a half is basically to say, okay, you CAN work people beyond 40 if you HAVE to, but we don't want you to, and we want you to hire more people instead. Basically, it introduces an extra cost to working the same employees beyond a certain amount of time in order to disincentivize them doing it.

So...if Donald Trump hates paying overtime, and wants to "get more people in" (ie, hire more people) to avoid paying overtime, I don't see the problem with that. That's what capitalists are supposed to do rationally. Say, I don't wanna work people beyond 40 hours because then i lose money, so I'm gonna hire more people instead. 

I mean, you can crap on the project 2025 stuff, since i know that talks about axing overtime as a concept altogether. You can criticize him if he means he wanted to do things that are illegal like hire illegal immigrants under the table (a stunning admission since being anti illegal immigration is that guy's entire schtick), but if he just doesnt wanna pay workers overtime so he hires more people to avoid doing it...I'm not seeing the problem. That's exactly what is supposed to be happening. 

Heck, let's go further and use this logic to explain why the ACA's insurance mandate is actually a bad idea. So, the ACA has a provision in which any employee over 25 hours has to be given health insurance. And it's led to a lot of businesses refusing to employ people full time to avoid overtime pay. So we got this system now where most workers in like the service industry, retail, etc., are working part time, <25 hours, and the minimum wage is still $7.25, and they can't afford to live on their salary, and now they gotta work 2 jobs just to make ends meet. And that's basically the economy for lots of people any more. The ACA added a perverse incentive, and while it was designed to make businesses pay for health insurance...they instead pass on the costs to the worker, leading them to only be able to work part time and being fired if they go a second over 25 hours. So...this makes wage slavery worse. it would be fine I guess if people could meet the basics of life at 25 hours, but they can't.

Heck, let's really get to the really unpopular thing about capitalism that the jobists dont wanna talk about. BUSINESSES DON'T WANNA PAY WORKERS! They want workers, but they dont wanna pay for them. They'll work them as hard as humanly possible while paying them the bare minimum, and trying to get businesses to pay them ends up being like trying to get blood from a stone. We have all this talk about full employment, and jobs for everyone, and yay jobs, but then we have a system where the so called "job creators" explicitly don't wanna pay people, and avoid doing so like the plague. And then we wonder why capitalism is crap and why work is so miserable for the workers. And this is why we need regulation in the first place. Because we decided workers have to work, we dont wanna liberate them from their societal burden or whatever we wanna call it, so instead, we spend all this time trying to regulate businesses and how they treat workers, and at the end of the day, the workers still gotta work and are screwed every chance they get, and the capitalists are crying about how having to actually pay their employees is destroying their business model. 

Honestly, wouldn't things be better if we shifted the burden to provide for people, at least somewhat, to the state, by giving people a UBI and universal healthcare? We could maintain enough of the wage system and the work incentives associated with them to keep the system going, but we won't expect people to make their entire living from work that sucks for everyone involved. 

Really, I think we'd be better off moving away from this system, at least somewhat, and toward a system where the state takes the role of providing for people. It doesn't have to be the sole provider, I'm not advocating for the dreaded "communism" the right loves to scream about in government doing things and blah blah blah. But yeah. Leaving this crap up to the market seems like a recipe for disaster. 

As such, I dont really blame Donald Trump for not liking overtime and preferring to hire more people to avoid paying for it. I will blame him for the project 2025 crap associated with it, and if his comments implied doing anything illegal like hiring people under the table, but taking the words at face value in the most legal way possible...yeah no...that's the entire point of overtime pay in the first place. if you're gonna force workers to work beyond 40 hours, you should compensate them more heavily for their time. And yeah, you're supposed to want to hire more people to avoid paying overtime. That's literally the point. So idk why they're ripping trump on those comments on face value. He's just being a rational capitalist here. Again, rip him for wanting to do away with overtime pay, if you wanna pin project 2025 on him.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Discussing "Universal Basic Guys"

 So, it has come to my attention from an ad (one of the first time an ad has actually worked on me or suggested something to me I actually find interesting) that Fox has a new show out called "Universal Basic Guys." I watched the first 3 episodes, which are currently free on Fox's site, and...I have mixed opinions.

So, first, to get the obvious out of the way, this show kinda sucks. Hard. It's not that the premise isn't good. The show centers around two guys who got let go from their jobs at the hot dog plant that was recently automated, and they were put on universal basic income at $3000 a month. But....the show itself is...largely not realistic. At all. As some negative reviewer I've seen covering it discussed, it's stupid guys doing stupid guy stuff, and...did I mention that it's kinda stupid? Like the first episode the guy blows his $3000 monthly check on buying a chimpanzee. And then it rips his face off and he needs to get facial reconstruction. And then there's another episode where he's shooting himself out of a cannon and asking about "safety nets" when he does it. And yeah. Again, stupid guys doing stupid guy stuff. It's kinda cringe and stupid.

At the same time, as an actual supporter of UBI, there is one thing that the show did right, and the relationships in the show were portrayed somewhat well. If this show does anything right, it shows that yes, people can have dignity without employment. They can have relationships. What we refer to as "the dignity of work" is a bunch of nonsense made up by weirdos who wanna keep us all working forever and who take pride in their servitude. These guys have romantic relationships. The lack of job is often not an issue, merely having money is enough. The main character's job is basically a nurse. And while there is some tension in the first episode with him being jealous of a doctor coworker's expensive gift for her birthday, she later reassures him that at that job they make so much money, $200 is nothing and that they care more about effort and spending time together and stuff. And that seems to be a focal point of a lot of the relationships there. In another episode, another character is struggling with getting romantic affection from his wife, who works at a tech startup and is always busy, but later on they later make time for each other and blah blah blah. So yeah, the characters seem well adjusted, and if the show does anything right, it's portraying people who are unemployed and on UBI in a relatively positive light. Maybe some people would resent them being so happy being unemployed in the real world, but that's exactly how we get to our current situation with "the dignity of work" in the first place. The system invests so much time making unemployed people miserable both from a material and cultural perspective that the obvious solution is...employment. And that's why things are the way they are. When we point to people losing dignity when they stop working, that isn't a problem with the people involved, that is a problem with society and how it perceives value. So, if there's anything I can praise the show about, it's that. And if culture shifted as to not so strongly sanction unemployment, then maybe it wouldn't be as big of a problem as it is. Just saying. I doubt we'll all go around buying chimps as pets and super expensive sex bots to use as a crash test dummy (true story, happened in the show), but again, from a relational perspective and how the people in the show are portrayed, I think it's positive in a sense. 

Beyond that though? Yeah, it's a mid show. I'm interested enough in it to consider watching this season of it, but if i wasn't a hardcore UBI guy, would I be watching it? Probably not. To be fair, i'm a sucker for UBI. It's like how that one UBI reference caused me to watch solar opposites too. But yeah. Give it a chance, but if you don't like it don't watch it. That's my overall opinion.

Friday, September 27, 2024

Addendum to election update (9/27/24)

 New polls came out after my update, PA is down to 0.4% for Harris, reducing her odds to 54%. Everything else stands as is, even if some margins change from other polls.



Election update 9/27/24

 So, it's my first week back at home, so let's do an actual full on election prediction. The last few have been abridged due to time constraints, but now I can really let loose what I think about this presidential race.

Presidential

So, not a lot changed in general, but a lot of shifts worth talking about around the edges. Finally got Colorado data, that's safe dem. Nebraska CD2 is now safe. Maine CD2 is now a toss up for the GOP, but to be blunt, that D+5 poll was an outlier anyway. I mean Maine as a whole was D+17 in that poll and i believe the other one which had it at D+9 was more accurate. I readded Maine to my chart despite being >12 because I don't trust that data and believe D+9 is probably more accurate. Iowa is now R+4, but I also dont really trust that. I could see it being R+7 or so based on the other states given Biden's data, but down to "lean R"? Nah, more like likely R IMO. Basically, it's red Oregon, Oregon being on here based on one D+5 poll when it's probably way safer than that. I didn't even have Oregon on my list when Biden was running, and I had NY, IL, and WA on here then. 

So that said there are a handful of states that likely are somewhat inaccurate. but data is data, error happens, and while I can make judgment calls on it, I mostly like to let it speak for itself. 

On the big 7 swing states. Lots of fluctuations. As I discussed the other day, Harris tends to get waves of polls that push the race in her favor, but then I get lots of more red leaning polls that end up clawing back those gains. We're literally in tossup territory, with Harris having a 58.9% chance and Trump a 41.1% chance. I mean, it's still anyone's game but trump can win. I did simulations too, with Harris winning 57 of them, Trump 40, and there being 3 ties. Here's the overall trend line with the overall election odds.

As for the electoral map, I currently have 276-262 in Harris's favor

It's still a close race. I mean, again, anything between 60-40 is effectively a tossup. And let's not forget what that means in practice. Trump can still win this, just like he did in 2016. It wouldn't take much for this outcome to happen:

But...at the same time, we could also get this, if things go in the other direction:

And we could reasonably get any combination of those 7 swing states going in any weird way. Not to mention lower probabilities of the "likely" races flipping. It can happen. Wisconsin was "likely dem" in 2016. And again, if it goes the way it did in 2016 relative to polling, well, expect the Trump win map. 

But yeah. This is anyone's game. Heck there's even talk of republicans trying to make Nebraska winner take all to steal the NE2 vote for Trump giving us 269-269 in the event of an otherwise 270-268 Harris win. This whole race could be decided by legal screwery. We could see another 2000 happen again with a handful of votes in PA or NV deciding the whole thing (a huge reason, I'm just going Harris this time). VOTE! Really, if you want your side to win, vote. Even if you dont live in the 7 swing states. We could, in theory, see Virginia, Minnesota, or New Hampshire flip on the dem side. We could see Iowa, Texas, or Florida flip in the GOP side. They're not the likely outcomes but they can happen roughly one time out of nine or so.

So yeah, that's my view on the presidential race. It's a nail biter. Anyone can win. Yes, if I had to call it, I'd call it for Harris, but I called 2016 for Clinton and look at how that turned out. Same thing here. VOTE!

Senate

With the senate, not a lot has changed. Ohio is contested somewhat on the democratic side. Beyond that, it's pretty stagnant with most races clearly leaning one way or another. Still 49-51R. Still an 86% chance the GOP wins. Still a 3% chance of a tie. Still an 11% chance that the dems win

Of course the simulations tell a slightly different story, with the GOP winning 83 outcomes, the dems winning 2, and there being 15 50-50 ties

I tend to believe the trend model of elections over the kinds of outcomes my simulator produces, but again, it shows what can happen, and I do trust it enough to tell me which way the race is leaning and who has more potential paths to victory statistically. 

Anyway, here's the senate map.

Conclusion

So yeah. It's a close race. The presidential is gonna be razor thin, and the senate, while likely going to go republican, isn't guaranteed to. The dems can pull off an upset there, especially if they win the presidency, which would turn a 50-50 tie into a de facto democratic senate majority. 

Vote. Make sure you're registered. Make sure you got a plan, whether it be to vote by mail or show up in person on election day. But please vote.

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Let's not get carried away about Harris's chances of winning

 So, I know last week there was this huge wave of hype that Trump is so screwed and that Harris is gonna win and blah blah blah. This mostly came out of a huge round of polls released last week that seemed to dramatically change the race, shifting many states 1+ points toward Harris. However, as I write this, more polls have come in and many of those gains are being mitigated.

One cannot go by individual polls, and expect to extrapolate some sort of conclusion about the elections. Even a good wave might not mean much in the grand scheme of election season. Before that wave, I was actually starting to wonder if Harris was beginning to backslide. because every day I'd see a poll make Harris's odds a little worse, a little worse, a little worse. She's at 58%, no wait, 58%, no wait, 52%, 50%, 48%, now 51%, now 60%, etc. That's how it's been going. Like, here's the chart that represents the overall trend of the polls based on the tipping point state (which is what I define a candidate's odds by):


 As we can see, since around August 10th or so, we've basically been in toss up mode. And we've never really gotten out of there. I consider races a tossup if the confidence I have in either candidate winning is basically 60% or less. harris peaked at 60% last week, and is down to 56%. Keep in mind, I gave Hillary the same 56% on election day in 2016 and look at how that turned out. 

You cant be certain AT ALL at that rate. You literally might as well flip a coin. 56% is basically saying "4 in 7", meaning take 7 random outcomes, Trump would win 3, Harris 4. It's not quite 50-50, but it's very close to it. So no, Trump isn't screwed, it isn't over for him, he's still a very dangeous threat to democracy with a high chance of winning, even if he is the underdog by this point, and yeah, don't count trump out. He can win, he can come back, no, I'm not saying this because I'm a Trump supporter huffing copium, this is a statistical fact. The same statistical fact got him into office in the first place anyway. 

As I see it, here's how I grade probabiilities:

50-60% Tossup/tilt (=<1% polling average)- Means that one candidate might be slightly favored to win but the race is basically a coin flip.

61-84% Lean (1.1-4% polling average)- the race leans a certain way, and one candidate is statistically favored to win, but keep in mind, 40% is 2 out of 5, and 16% is 1 out of 6. So an upset can happen. 

84-97.7% Likely (4.1-8% polling average)- race is heavily leaning in a certain direction, but perhaps not to the degree that it would pass the rigors of statistical significance (95% confidence in a two tailed test).

97.7%+ Safe (>8% polling average)- race leans so far in such a direction that an upset is statistically insignificant and should happen 1 in 20 times or less (1 in 40 in a one tailed test like here). 

Since august 10th, the race has functionally been a tossup. And while I would give Harris a slight advantages and if i were forced to call the race either way it would be for harris, I'm really not sure. Again, take 7 random outcomes, Harris wins 4, Trump wins 3. Harris is favored but not by much. I dont care if a single new poll has Harris up 5 or 6 in PA, especially when the next day two trump +3s will come out to flip it back the other way. We dont know. Let's face it, no one who is honest fricking knows. And I dont take anyone seriously who claims to know (allen lichtman included). Buckle up, the next 6 weeks are gonna be WILD. 

DIscussing degrowth

 So, Vaush had a video today discussing degrowth, and initially seemed critical of the idea but ended up liking the video he reacted to, and given the relation of the topic to my idea of human centered capitalism deemphasizing economic growth at all costs, I wanted to give my views.

I generally agree with the take that Americans are never going to accept a marked reduction in living standards. Actually "degrowing" the economy is a disastrous idea, and there's a reason I don't advocate for it. I mean, I know I have those models where if only we didnt grow as much starting in 1930/1938/1950, that we would be able to work less, but there's also a reason I never advocate going from $76k GDP per capita to like $40k. Because it would end up looking like COVID. And the people would riot at the idea of not going to fancy restaurants and amusement parks and vacations, and not accept that. They've grown accustomed to the existing standard of living. They would not accept less, even if their needs were met and it just meant fewer luxuries like not having someone wait on them hand and foot in a spa or something. 

The debate, IMO, is about how we should grow our economy from here. And I do think we should "take it easy" and not go balls to the wall growth at all costs. According to my projections, based on the previous century of growth, in 2120 or so, we can either work as much as we currently do, with a $320k GDP per capita, work a little less with a $240k GDP per capita, work a lot less with a $160k per capita, or work very little with our current GDP per capita. All of these scenarios have pros and cons. The $320k per capita one will represent the "best" living standard, but with all of the dysfunctions on modern capitalism today. The $80k one represents the equivalent of us pulling a north korea, where we are perpetually frozen in time but we work a whole lot less. And the ones in the middle represent something akin to what a lot of European countries do where they arent the biggest growers but you got the reduced work weeks, and the month long vacations, and parental leave, and you can tell your boss to F off and stop calling you after hours, and blah blah blah. In a sense you achieve a balance where you have your cake and eat it too. 

And another positive aspect to how I do so called "degrowth" (it isnt really degrowth but lets just pretend it is) is I insist on making it voluntary mostly. I generally just expect, with workers not under the force of wage slavery, to gradually just prefer to prioritize other things over work if not forced to work. Where people would rather be like you know what? Screw this, I want my 30 hour week, I want my month long vacations, I want to work from home. I dont care about efficiency, I just wanna do my thing and be left alone. And then growth would perhaps slump a bit, but as long as it remains positive, there wont be any major economic consequences, it just means we wont growth as much.

I mean, if people need to basically be metaphorically whipped like slaves by bosses to maximize that kind of output and people need to be subjected to wage slavery to drive it, is it worth it? Thats what I ask. Im not gonna be like "the government is telling you you cant go outside" like it's covid or whatever weird alex jones-esque conspiracy theory the right is thinking of ("you vill eat ze bugs"). I'm kinda just for removing the oppression of capitalism and letting the market take its course and be a pro free market. obviously, we must take care we DONT de grow as that would lead to recession and all kinds of negative consequences, but as long as growth is positive, even if a bit more stagnant, then is that the worst thing in the world? Well, that's for people to collectively decide. 

I do admit that environmentalists can use my ideas to achieve their goals too Obviously stopping rampant consumerism and growth at all costs is essential to stopping climate change long term. Given climate change is driven by human activity, particularly that of an economic variety, it seems obvious working less is good for the environment. But I'm not making the environment the number one goal here. As Vaush said, humans dont care about the environment and arent good at accounting for externalities like that. Even my psyche is subject to that behavior, and I know it. But I also recognize that my ideas could be used to motivate people to pursue environmentally positive choices anyway, simply by choosing to work and consume less, as production and consumption stop being so central to our lives. And that's fine. The economy exists for humans and our wants and needs, a society that exists for us to serve it is one in which we are slaves. I kinda just wanna free people from slavery here. That's my main motivation. The positive environmental impacts are just coincidental, although I acknowledge that I am aware of them. Perhaps my models could be used by governments and people of the future to scale down society to mitigate future environmental impacts.

And yeah. I just wanted to discuss how my ideas relate to this topic. 

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

So yeah...we really are brainwashed...

 So I'm finally back home from Myrtle Beach. And I started reading/listening to the book "Free Time: The Forgotten American Dream" by Benjamin Kline Hunnicutt. And uh...yeah. We REALLY are brainwashed. Only a few chapters into it, but basically it has already covered a lot of past thoughts on the idea of doing away with labor, and the idea of working less as we become more productive has been around for a while. it almost seems like a lot of these traditions of thought have disappeared over time, or were, perhaps, stamped out intentionally by propaganda to make us all wanna work all of the time. A lot of the ideas of this day just seem so nonsense to me, and looking at it in a historical context, it's easy to see why. We are raised from birth to want to work, and for work to be all there is. We are like slaves who don't know we're slaves. We act like if people don't work they'll fall into sin or moral decay, and we point to social science evidence showing that jobless people end up being dysfunctional in a lot of ways. But they're primarily dysfunctional in a society that is so structured around labor most people don't know how to handle free time. And society heavily sanctions people both formally and informally if they don't work. So...they basically have to work and face severe social consequences if they don't.

This wasn't always a thing in the past. In the past, there was a division of labor between the working classes who were slaves whose senses were dulled to the higher pleasures of life, as labor was all they knew, and the leisure classes where you got a lot of philosophers like Plato and Socrates, who focused on enriching themselves intellectually. And to be blunt, there was a certain elitism there. Some of them were like, yeah, while we sadly need these workers to do the work so those of us at the top can think, we can do our thinking for them because they're quite frankly too busy to think.

And this kind of echoed a convo I had a few weeks ago with some leftist job worshipper that if I recall I alluded to on this blog. And again, I don't like to pick on working class people much as I see them as victims and their situation is largely beyond their control, but one thing i hate is how some of these leftists take pride on themselves being workers. We saw this with AOC too and how she was talking about how she'd happily go back to bar tending. Anyway, in this debate, the guy I was arguing with said that people who don't work have too much time to sit around and think, and I retorted that they don't really think enough, because their minds are so dulled by labor that they CAN'T think. And in this context, the thinkers of old kind of thought similarly, and thought that they'd do their thinking for them hoping for economic growth and labor saving machines to eventually free people from labor.

And a lot of early advocates for reduced working hours kind of wanted that for themselves. They, much like me, realized that working all the time took them away from being able to otherwise LIVE a life worth living, and took away from intellectual pursuits too. These early labor advocates wanted more time so they could improve themselves intellectually and think about things. And it seems like that goal is lost. Somewhere the populism of people priding themselves on how hard they worked replaced the idea of the thinkers bringing a new golden age for the non thinkers. And the idle rich were castigated, and society seemed to shift toward dragging everyone down into the "working class" and getting rid of the idle rich. The resentment politics of the working class basically doomed us all to be workers. We see this both in capitalism and socialism in various ways. As we know, the protestant work ethic that belies capitalism effectively tied property to labor as a way to do away with the idle rich and their estates, and in socialism, we see another movement in which people end up being forced to all be "workers." And honestly, I hate this pro work populism. Even if it comes with good intentions, it really does reek of the destructive resentment politics that drag us all down. So even as we are able to produce more and more with less and less, we insist on all just working all of the time because rah rah work!

Of course, the book will eventually cover this, I only got to chapter 3 so far and it seems like it's a deeply historical book looking at the evolution of thoughts. I'm just combining the early readings with what I've gleaned from other discussion in other books. 

Idk, I just wanted to post this because quite frankly, I almost feel like I'm being gaslit, like society really does have this pro work narrative that is so powerful and so pervasive that anyone who doesnt toe its line is gaslit into thinking they're crazy or something. But no, we're not crazy, society is just literally that brainwashed. And I'm fricking saying it. Sorry, not sorry. 

Quite frankly, i think most people of antiquity would think we're nuts. I can tell just reading some of what people said. Like some detested the concept of a world in which we effectively conquered scarcity and could work <4 hours a day and we CHOOSE to work more. Some of the Christian thinkers even saw the concept of such materialism as sinful, asking things like, in order to make such a society work, we would need to tempt people into consumerism and buying things that they don't really need. Which...sounds exactly like modern society.

Again, I know it might seem hypocritical saying it as I come back from vacation, but it isn't really, given the vacation was my parents' idea and I was kinda just along for the ride. But yeah, I'm actually not big on that kind of consumerist culture. I despise the idea that we make people work making fancy drinks and elaborate dinners that cost way too much money. I'd really prefer a more simple life that doesn't have such things.

But...as we know, we have a society in which poor people provide goods and services to middle class people who are overpaid doing jobs that are often not very essential to society, and then rich people profit from it all. And as we know from COVID, yes, we can work less, a lot less, but most of these people don't wanna give up their creature comforts, and they VOTE, and our politics inevitably trend right because of this. I kind of feel like modern consumerist culture is "wicked" to use a more "christian" term. I mean while luxury in and of itself is not a bad thing, I really do think that the exploitation of millions under capitalism to produce those things IS bad. And the fact that so many people would refuse to make even minor sacrifices to their life style to free people from servitude is sickening. Again, if people are willing to work, and businesses are willing to pay a wage, and people are willing to buy, and others are willing to sell, I got nothing against that in theory. I just resent the fact that many of those workers arent TRULY there by their own accord but are driven there by economic desperation. And that the glue that holds all of this together is this de facto forced labor that has the pretense of being voluntary but is anything but. 

Given all morality is functionally subjective, I can't really say that a society in which people choose to work more for higher standards of living is any better or worse than one in which people choose to work less but live more frugally. I mean, these are two different dimensions of "progress" and people are neither right nor wrong to favor either one inherently.

HOWEVER, I would argue a society that forces people to work to produce insanely high standards of living and luxury for some, is just as "evil" as one in which people are too lazy to make even the essentials for themselves where people suffer materially from literal scarcity.

In other words, I cede the point that if people work so little it leads to scarcity and suffering from said scarcity in the form of poverty, lack of basic needs, and reduced life spans with more suffering, that that's a bad thing. Yes yes yes, we cant have a society where no one works and we all starve to death. But likewise, a society that keeps people artificially poor to make them work so that some enjoy massive luxuries is also evil.

If any objective morality exists for me, it's kind of related to those three so called "natural rights" from the declation of independence. Not because "natural rights' are justified in some form of weird deistic divine command theory, but because if we really sit back and think about what morality is about, it's about this. Preserving life, reducing suffering, but also not overtly infringing on peoples freedom in order to accomplish this. As for freedom, there are two kinds. Negative liberties in the right to be left alone, but also positive liberties in the form of being free to actually pursue what makes one happy. We could very well make happiness a goal of morality, but i think that could itself be corrupted by dystopias involving forcefully injecting people with happy drugs like "we happy few" or other similar dystopian fiction. Rather, I believe in people having the right to pursue what makes them happy, and being able to reasonably accomplish that. 

A society of perpetual scarcity from sloth tends to run afoul of these standards. But so does a society in which everyone is forced to work all the time, whether it be for growth, or even some weirdo shared solidarity as "workers."

Honestly. I think a society in which we all become like the idle rich of antiquity is likely better than this weird populist vision of us all being workers beating our chests over how hard we work. I think a society in which we can all attain the ranks of bourgeoisie is better than one in which we all become "workers." A society in which we all own and gain passive income is better than one in which we must all work for our bread. 

In that sense, I really do think something is deeply dysfunctional with modern society, as well as many of the most well established counter ideologies to it. As Bob Black once said, the problem with all of the old ideologies is they all believe in work. Capitalism, socialism, who cares? It's an antiquated debate, despite the views I invoke being more antiquated than that. Because at least those old thinkers had some idea of working less being heaven on earth, instead of being obsessed with work and growth and productivity like the thinkers of today. 

I look at what we are doing today and it's just like a wish come true but corrupted. A massive monkey's paw so to speak. We're rich beyond our wildest dreams on a societal level, but we also work as much as, if not more than we ever did. Something is deeply wrong and deeply dysfunctional about this. And we should call it out and try to fix it. No, if you hate working, there isn't something wrong with you. The rest of society is literally just that brainwashed by these bad ideas.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

On equality

 So, while a lot of society gets its ideas of egalitarianism from the enlightenment and its ideas of god given natural rights, being a humanist, i dont like justifying anything in a god, so I wanted to talk about the notion of equality secularly.

Equality is...a good idea. We tried hierarchical societies in the past and they just led to some people going around doing whatever they wanted and harming others. The ideas that kings were subject to the law as per the magna carta, that all humans were "created" equal, etc, are all hard fought for marks of progress to make a fairer, more just society for everyone involved. And these liberal ideas are just...inherently just. We can see how everyone benefits from them to some extent, and no one is above the law, and no one is below it. I think a better question is under what is inequality justified? Most past justifications were in divine right of kings, some idea of "natural law" (which is a lot of nonsense to me), etc. I mean, under modern liberalism, equality just seems to be given as the ideal. Humans are humans, all humans are equal.

Right now, the only inequalities we have, at least on paper, are economic inequalities, and these are based on the idea of meritocracy. People earn their stance in society through merit. They work for it. Yes, once again, the work thing again. But the only purpose of doing this is to motivate people to work, it only makes sense for those who work to have higher standards of living than those who dont. It's a motivator. but that's one of the only moral justifications. We have arguments about market relations and voluntaryism leading to inequalities too, but taxation can offset and fix that. We can even reconsider property rights themselves, although property is considered sacrosanct, even if this leads to major suffering. 

We should have debates related to the market and property rights, and I dont think some level of taxation or redistribution of wealth is out of the question. I dont think that being born in the right place, or even work, fully justifies property or the levels of inequality we have in our society. I think that what does is necessity. If inequality is necessary to motivate people to do the necessary work for society to function, so be it. But beyond that, I support greater equality. I really think the liberal default is all humans should be equal and any inequalities justified. if some level of inequality arises from voluntary market transactions, so be it, we can correct with that via taxation. If we need some level of inequality to justify people to work, so be it. But beyond that I'm not really big on inequality, and don't think there's much to justify it existing. 

On purpose

 I always found the idea of a purpose as weird and nonsensical from a humanistic perspective. Such an idea goes back to christianity and the idea that god has a plan for all of us. But in a world neutral as far as god goes, and that doesnt actively believe in one, does this make sense? No. THe idea relies on being created for a specific reason. Given secular humanism doesnt formally acknowledge the existence of a god, much less one that gives us purpose, then the idea of an objective purpose is nonsensical. Purposes are something that exist as a matter of subjectivity. There is no purpose but that which we make for ourselves. If people want to believe whatever they want about purpose in their private lives, have at it, tbqh as a spiritual person myself I believe Im here to spread my ideas and ideology. But dont force ideas on others under an air of objectivity they dont deserve. I basically would hold almost the same ideas I have now even if I was an atheist, and I know this because I was an atheist when I developed them. Objectively, no such purposes exist, and honestly, we don't exist to do things or to work or carry out specific tasks, we should do what we want to do, and be free to do what we want to do, without authoritarian do gooders telling us what we should do. 

On work

 Another of these style of posts I want to make is one on work. Nothing I said here is really that new to this blog, I've written extensively on the subject, but I did want to give my philosophical views on work.

Work is essentially a necessary evil. It's the action of taking things that exist in the natural world and transforming them into goods and services that meet our wants and needs. It is generally unpleasant. As noted in the Bible, the punishment for original sin was work, and I think work has, throughout much of history, been looked down as unpleasant, but necessary. A lot of the stratification of society developed with the wealthy at the top doing very little work, and the masses at the bottom doing all of it. 

But in our modern society, work is seen as a good thing. Weirdos go on about work having dignity and giving people purpose, and people not being able to live without it. What happened? Well, many of these ideas stemmed from the changes that happened as we left the feudal society and its justifications for things, and had to come up with a new system. And we came up with one where the justification for property was labor and work, so now work is good, work is great, it's dignified, and how dare you think otherwise.

These ideas are nonsense to me. Cultural nonsense used to gaslight the modern slave class into being wage slaves and to cheer on their own servitude. Behind it are a bunch of dysfunctional ideas like the protestant work ethic, which is rooted in christianity and thinks that work is needed to display virtue and to save us from "sin", and resentment politics which is based on the idea that if I have to work, everyone must work to make it fair. it isnt fair for some to have to work and others not to, the old hierarchy of old is deegitimized, but in its place is a new tyranny in which we must all work in order to justify our own existence. These ideas arent any better than the ideas of old in some respects, and if anything are just based on a resentment politics that all keep us trapped slaving away forever like sisyphus rolling the rock up a hill.

I think we need to acknowledge that work is necessary for society to function, but let's get rid of the pretenses, work sucks. It's not a positive thing, and in a capitalist context dehumanizes people by making them economic inputs into some economic output machine. The point of work is the product or service offered, the process of making it, ie, working, sucks, and we should strive for a society that minimizes the amount of effort we have to expend to make things.

It used to be that the future to look forward to was one where we automate away all labor. After all, the point of labor saving devices was to save people from labor. but rather than working less for every invention we make that saves workers time, we just create more work instead, insisting on a slavish work ethic where no matter how efficient we get, we always end up working the same amount, for ever higher standards of living that many of us never enjoy, whether from the economic pressures like poverty and precarity that force us to continue working, or from the act of work exhausting us to such an extent that we can't enjoy the rest of our lives. 

We do things backwards, work should be a means to an end, a means to create the products and services that sustain us and make life worth living. They should not be the end itself. When we talk about creating jobs, we're talking about creating work for people to do to justify giving them a paycheck. Rather than rethinking this link between work and money, at least a little bit, we're a society obsessed with employing people so that we can justify giving them the resources for them to live. It's like we're subject to and tyrannized by outdated social norms that no longer work, and we keep trying to make them work but they dont work, they never worked, and have always been a great scourge and evil that we should strive to eliminate, but for some reason we stopped doing so and just keep insisting on creating more work.

Modern society is a sisyphusian hell to me. One where we are forced to roll metaphorical rocks up hills for all eternity, not as punishment from gods, but because we're trapped by our social norms that stop us from rethinking society. Not to mention the ultra wealthy benefits from a desperate and compliant work force and don't want to let their influence go. 

But yeah. That said, I think work is an evil, that much like other forms of pain, suffering, and hardship, should be eradicated from this earth. I'm not saying that there is no work that is worth doing or that can be enjoyable, but most work is very dull, very unpleasant, and if forced on people, is very unwelcome and makes us miserable. We would be better off doing away with work for the masses, and focused on liberating people by making work voluntary and minimizing the amount of time we should spend doing it. 

On consent

 So, this is primarily related to political and economic consent, not the idea of sexual consent, but there are obviously parallels that can be drawn there. 

So....we love to be a society that claims everything is consensual and voluntary. If you dont like society, go live in the woods. If you dont want a job, you dont have to work, no one is making you. But in reality, those ideas are models.

The idea of the social contract is a philosophical model of governance stemming back to like the 16th-17th century, but in reality, it's a bit of a myth. As I've discussed before, in reality, modern states arose by force, and are enforced by force. So we claim consent, when in reality people are effectively forced to participate in society, with little to no actual dissent, especially organized dissent. Any group that wishes to be separatist is going to be crushed and conquered by states sooner or later. Look at the native americans, or the paris commune, and before people mention the zapatistas of mexico or the rojavas in syria, theyre only allowed to live because its too difficult for states to conquer them. So that isnt an option for many. People are forced to operate under states and their political and economic models. And given capitalism has been forcibly exported to most of the planet, few are given a real choice to not consent to it. They're forced to operate under this model whether they like it or not. They're forced to respect the property regime that is enforced by literal men with guns. And that tends to make them operate under a "big casino" type situation to make a widerquist reference.

Which brings us to capitalism. People are forced to operate under capitalism and private property rights worldwide. They have little alternative, as much as some say people are free to live in the woods. Even if they could, is that the alternative? Is something okay just because someone consents to it and is better than the state of nature? I'd argue no. The point of the concept of progress is to make a state better and better for its subjects. To actively make their countries better places to live. To give people not just higher living standards as per capitalism and its obsession with growth and GDP, but also more freedom, less hardship, etc. We don't think about these metrics. Our modern political philosophy is obsessed with the words of people who lived 400 years ago, and who mostly operated under hypothetical ideas and not real world ideas. 

If society exists to serve people, than mere consent to a social order is not enough to justify poor conditions. Morality isnt necessarily based entirely on consent of the governed, even if states are justified somewhat by consent. States have an active responsbility to make lives better for their constituents, and if they dont, that is a moral failing of theirs. The role of the state may change over time to account for these changing needs. At one point economic libertarianism used to be the ideal model for society, but as the failures of that ideology have shown through, we have expanded the role of the state to include regulating market relations and providing social programs to improve the lives of citizens. The concept of progress trumps the concept of mere consent. Because consent can be forced. COnsent to a modern state is effectively forced if all of the alternatives are crap, and consent to employment is also forced if the alternatives are crap. There needs to be a minimum baseline for consent to be even remotely justified. otherwise you're just using legalese to effectively enslave people. You know?

As such, consent needs to be freely given, with valid alternatives existing that dont make the concept forced. For the state, i dont think theres an answer. People are gonna be forced to live under states, the goal is to make them responsible to the people they govern and give them a morl requirement to actively make their lives better and to respect their freedom as much as possble. For employment, I think the state providing a dignified minimum standard of living is necessary for employment relations to be consensual. 

And yeah, that's just some of the stuff I wanted to sketch out on the subject. 

On scarcity

 Ok, so I got some downtime for a few hours today so I'm gonna use at least a little of it to write some thoughts going through my head this week. I do have a lot of topics I want to approach philosophically after reading the Anderson book on private government, as well as some debates I've lurked here and there on reddit. 

I did the authority topic like a week or two ago. This time I wanna do scarcity. So...thoughts on scarcity. A common criticism the right likes to throw at the left is that we ignore the concept of scarcity, as if we cant have a world without work, until we can solve the issue of scarcity. But what does this mean? Well, in the eyes of the right, the bar is achieving a "post scarcity" economy. Ie, something that's star trek, where the concept of the finiteness of resources is solved. As long as resources are finite and take work to make, they support a world in which everyone must work and work to meet their own needs. But this is a bit of a false dichotomy. If we want to move from one world to another, we're gonna need some sort of transition period, and a lot of my own writings have been about how to handle that transition. Im not sure a true post scarcity world is possible, but it does not matter, an ideal is an ideal, reality may fall short of the ideal, but as long as we're familiar with the limitations and account for them accordingly, "compromising with reality" as I call it, then I don't see the problem. 

So...scarcity. I actually think scarcity is overstated. I grew up under the idea of scarcity. I believed that everyone needed to work, there wasnt enough to go around, and we'd all starve to death if we didn't. But in reality, we are an extremely rich society. GDP per capita is in the ballpark of $76,000 a year. People would argue if we had the dreaded "communism", no one would work, everyone would earn the same, there would be no incentive, and the economy would implode. Therefore, everyone has to work. But what if the amount of necessary labor that needs to be done in society is somewhere between 0 and 100% of the population? I would argue we are there now. We have "essential workers" and "nonessential workers", as demonstrated by covid in 2020. Essential workers are needed to ensure we meet our needs. Nonessential workers do work that may be nice to have, but is unnecessary for the sustainment of life. Yet, we still act like we live in a state of absolute scarcity, while no longer doing so. We abolished scarcity on a macro level a while ago, while enforcing it on a micro level in order to drive everyone to work to create more and more wealth. We claim a rising tide raises all boats, but it also seems to raise cost of living, ensuring many remain in poverty.

The disconnect between scarcity on an individual "micro" level and a societal "macro level" is something worth discussing. It has been said our society has poverty amid plenty. We have enough wealth to solve poverty and scarcity on a personal level several times over, but we keep insisting on keeping people poor to incentivize (read: force) people to provide it on a macro level. And that's where the disconnect is. And sure, maybe we cant just spread all wealth equally to ensure everyone gets a share without society falling apart. But what about a fraction of it? The poverty level in the US is just over $15000. GDP per capita is just over $75,000. We can redistribute 20% of this, ensure that no one is truly poor, and then leave the other 80% of it to the market. We can have our cake and eat it too. We will ensure there remains enough scarcity and difference in living standards to motivate people to work, while solving the age old issue of poverty and economic coercion under capitalism. 

I don't see why arguments have to be presented in an absolutist fashion of either we keep people in poverty and percarity perpetually to force people to work, or we have "full communism", when the answer is obviously something in between.

How much would a UBI of around the poverty line discourage work ethic? Unclear, but most studies seem to suggest it's not a lot. Studies with smaller amounts (say $500 a month) and no tax scheme such as ones practiced recently seem to produce next to no measurable work disincentive. Ones at the federal poverty line with a simulated tax increase might produce a mild work disincentive, on the level of 13% or so, with most of that concentrated in secondary earners like house wives and high school/college students. And if they drop out of the work force, is that necessarily bad? I'd argue no. 

As such, I see no reason why arguments about scarcity should be particularly relevant to my ideology or ideas. As long as any reductions in productivity are sustainable, I don't see why we shouldn't pursue the kinds of reforms I'm for. It's not like we're gonna destroy society like the right thinks we will. 

Friday, September 20, 2024

Election Update 9/20/24

 So, just a really brief election update. I'll return to my normal format next week. 


Basically, the big shift is that the rust belt is getting a bit bluer and the sun belt a bit redder. Otherwise, not a lot has changed. We're seeing mostly small fluctuations, although a massive dump of polls yesterday really pushed the entire race more in Harris' direction. Still, at a 60% chance for Harris, the race is still a de facto toss up for me. Who knows if this movement will even hold, given the trajectory.


Yeah. Lots of small fluctuations for weeks. Things are moving in a pro Harris direction NOW but who knows what things will look like next week or the week after. The trend could continue or 50-50 is the new normal. I suspect the latter.

As for the senate, yeah, not much has changed in net, mostly small shifts in the margin.


GOP still holds an 86% chance of winning the senate here. 49-51R.

And yeah, that's all I'll post this time. Don't have a ton of time to post right now and do maps and fancy formatting, so, it is what it is. Again, I'll hopefully return to my more normal format next week. 

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

So lets talk about recent attacks on greens and third parties I'm seeing on the internet

 What is campaign season if not for democrats crapping on greens and Jill Stein? it's like a time honored tradition. I actually hate it. I believe the democrats arent entitled to votes ideologically, and third parties gaining popularity is an indication that the two party system is doing something wrong. Shaming voters isn't the answer. Even in 2024. It does nothing to actually win those voters over. All it does is lead to a culture of toxicity within the dems, and polarizing those voters even more than they would be otherwise. I was more polarized and convinced of my position first and foremost by democrats trying to shame me out of it. That social crap dont work on me and is indicative of bad faith manipulation and cult like behavior. Doesnt work on a free thinker. But it does seem to work on others, and dem spaces get absolutely insufferable with the third party bashing. So here I'm going to discuss some of the common talking points I'm seeing this time around.

"The green party isn't serious"

Ok, who defines what is and isn't serious? This is just an argument bashing people about how they got no support and struggle against institutional barriers. I mean, they do do that, you know that right? it takes tens of thousands of signatures to get on the ballot and tons of effort just to get moving. And our system is set up by republicans and democrats to maintain their power and suppress competition. 

"Why don't you focus on down ballot races?"

This is just a non sequitur to me. I mean, the reason third party candidates focus on the presidency is they need to to gain attention. No one cares about the down ballot stuff. Most people are driven out by the presidency and then vote down ballot. This is why presidential races and congressional races are often tied, and one of the reasons the dems forced Biden out. He was killing their down ballot chances. 

Either way, this statement reeks of elitism. Like "ugh, why are you focusing on such a high profile race, focus on these little races no one cares about like the peons you are." Ugh, kindly F off. 

Also, the greens, at least in PA, do focus on down ballot races too. They just never make it on the ballot given the high requirements. If you think getting on the presidential ballot is hard, imagine some nobody getting on a down ballot race no one particularly cares about. 

"The greens are in league with Russia and Republicans"

So, I'm not going to deny that the greens are sometimes weaponized by republicans and even Russia to hurt the dems and achieve their political goals. And I'm not even gonna deny that the greens sometimes seem to willingly accept help from these parties. If they want to gain any support, sometimes they might feel the need to make a deal with the devil. Not justifying it, just explaining it. I do think, especially in terms of russia, the greens are too willing to accept help from them in order to gain support, and this taints them.

Still, to focus more abstractly and in terms of ideals, should we always attack a third party just because an opposing faction to our ideological goals supports them? I would say no. We should define ourselves primarily in what we're for, not against, defining ourselves as being not the bad guys but a lesser evil is the whole problem in the first place. 

And while, in this era of Donald Trump, yes, we do need to be against the literal fascist, and we should be against russia (and i will say it, a huge reason i dislike the greens is their foreign policy would be disastrous to the US), ultimately, this election is special. THe stakes are too high for normal rules to apply, and I do think that doing a strategic lesser evil vote is intelligent at this time. Still, I wouldnt make a habit of it. 

"But they can't win"

If youre voting third party, it's not about winning but pressuring the system to appeal to you and your concerns. When I did it, i did it to bring attention to UBI, universal healthcare, and protesting the treatment and hostility i got from dems in terms of my ideology and the above goals. When people do it in 2024, it's about palestine mostly.

If third parties are taking so much of your voter base it threatens your ability to win the election, then that's on you to appeal to them. You should be able to keep third parties to under 1% of the population. At which point further gains with them is likely a lot cause. If you lose by under a 1% margin, like in 2000 and 2016, while yes, third parties did play a role, the elephant in the room is they also struggled against the republicans as well. ANd keep in mind, republicans have their own third parties taking from them, like libertarians, and RFK Jr, and the constitution party, etc. So if you can't win because of a sub 1% of the population, that sounds like a you problem. Appeal to them or move on. Stop this weird obsession with harassing their voters on the internet. Democrats aren't owed votes. Politicians exist to serve constituents, constituents dont exist to serve politicians. If your strategy doesnt work it doesnt work. I admit, criticizing voters isnt always invalid, but the weird obsession dems have with third party voters is just too deranged for me. If the GOP wins in 2024, the dems are gonna have more going against them than the free palestine kiddies, the big problem is all the independents who are like "but things were cheaper in 2019." 

Conclusion

Look, I'm voting for Harris this time. And some of it is lesser evil thinking. But part of it is the fact that yes, the greens are kind of a joke and even I cant take them seriously. Still, dems doth protest too much, and it's annoying. The greens and Jill Stein, and Cornel West, have just as much of a right to run as anyone else, and i resent people trying to suppress candidates, push them out of the race, and shame and harass their voters. I dont even LIKE stein voters this election cycle. I mean some are okay, but most of them are the deranged "free palestine" kiddies who I cant stand. But, let's face it, I fully recognize those guys as a lost cause. If Harris aint bringing them back, and they're down to like 0.6% of the population, whatever, let's just move on with or without them. We have an election to win, and theres probably 10x the number of independent voters' up for grabs, which is why dems dont seem interested in appealing to these people in the first place. THey just arent that numerous to them and there's little to no political gain to doing so. Either way, I wish they'd just own that and shut up and let them do their own things. 

It baffles me how close some people are to getting it, only to completely go off in another direction...

 So, another brief reaction to the Anderson book on private government, but yeah, I dont get this lady sometimes. She seems so intelligent. She's done so much research into the history of states. She even discussed the ideal of markets working and people being independent actors in them. But then...she's anti UBI. I ain't basing that off the book, but that one lecture I covered back where she called it some sort of libertarian tech bro fantasy or something.

I mean, she went through all of the other alternatives to UBI in private government weighing the pros and the cons, it almost sounded like my analysis in a way (it was at least parallel to it). She discussed unions, regulations, workplace democracy. But...she's not pro UBI.

I really think her big oversight here is that she doesn't make the connection that the problem IS forced labor. The core reason markets and their liberalism fail is because you got these people who are effectively forced by propertylessness to participate in market relations. THe voluntariness that libertarians and classical liberals assume falls apart because it exists only on paper. If we want to ensure that people are insulated from the negative effects of "private government" people need to be given the freedom to say no, not just to any job, but all jobs. Capitalism IS just a choice between masters UNTIL liberty actually becomes an actual option. Then, every job will have to be weighed against...no job. No subjugation. No subservience. No obedience. No wage slavery. And businesses will have to adjust their business model accordingly. They will have to either raise wages, automate the jobs, outsource, hire immigrants, or go out of business. And I'm fine with any of them, as long as the sausage is made and the system is sustainable.

If willingness to work for meet our basic needs becomes a problem, we can just cap the UBI at the highest sustainable amount and work toward more liberation in the future. I'm not saying it will be perfect, that nothing can go wrong, but anything that does can be compensated for. We can balance our physical needs for production with liberty, taking liberty as far as it goes, but not taking my ideas into unsustainable territory. We can rely on the other flawed methods like regulation, unions, workplace democracy, etc., as complementary to UBI, acknowedging that once again, theory may not always meet reality and some redundancy is necessary. We can make it work. I feel like the practical considerations might be the reason people dont even consider that option, they just consider work as a fact of life, but I don't. I actively think work is a great evil in life and it should be minimized, not maximized as our current society seeks to do. And I fully recognize we could've scaled down our efforts to work over the decades, but instead we've pursued maximum growth instead, believing that growth, and work, are inherent goods. I dont necessarily agree with such narratives. But still, I do recognize at some point work IS still necessary and I'm willing to compromise my ideas with reality. I feel like that's something most DON'T do. Everything is head in the clouds theory and sometimes that theory doesnt match reality. Reality can be complex, but anyone looking to develop a theory should also consider "what can go wrong?" And I do attempt to do that and also counter any possibility that comes to my attention. 

But yeah. At the same time, Anderson's criticisms, based on her previous views on UBI before, seem more...ideological. She actually believes in the dignity of work nonsense. She actually is one of those traditional pro labor luddite types who fear giving up employment because they see it as giving up power and handing it over to billionaires and a state that won't help them. I believe the state can work for the people, but the people have to force it to. The reason billionaires control the system is we've gotten to a point where most people are stupid, uneducated, and ideologically buying into a lot of bad ideas and keep fighting among those. It's frustrating though. This person IS super educated but still ends up going in a totally different ideological direction. It baffles and frustrates me. 

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

On authority

 So, I'm reading Elizabeth Anderson's "Private government" (yeah lots of reading this trip) and to be honest, this is probably going to spark a lot of convo from me. I know I'm on vacation, but I still can't avoiding WANTING to post when I have something to say. And not wanting to lose my train of thought, I figured I'd write this.

So...authority. From a secular worldview, is it justified. The book talks a lot about the history of governments and authority, and the idea of public authority and private authority, and I wanted to give my views as it might be useful later for another project I've been working on.

Much of authoritarianism is justified in Christianity. God is the ultimate dictator, and Anderson talks a lot about how Christians had a "chain of things" to justify people having authority over others. God has authority over monarchs, monarchs have authority over subjects, nobles have authority over serfs, masters over slaves, husbands over wives and ultimately...employers over the employee. And, as we know there's significant protestant work ethic style thinking in which people need to be given direction from authority to give them purpose to their lives and cause them for falling into sin. As a humanist, and a western political philosophy enjoyer, I FUNDAMENTALLY reject these ideas of authority.

 From my perspective, we are an advanced species of intelligent ape, and there's no valid justification for authority. As I see it, there are two models of governance and authority. There's the idea that government arose as strong men organized loyal subjects to conquer and subjugate their fellow humans and subject them to inhumane hierarchies and autocracies that dominate every sphere of their life. This form of authority is, to me, morally illegitimate, although it may be very legitimate from a "might makes right" standpoint. I believe that ultimately, just authority comes from mechanisms like the social contract and the idea of consent of the governed, as well as democratic support from the people themselves. This is the more morally justified model of authority. In the former model, authority is imposed on people from the outside against their well, and in the second, authority is based on the popular will of the people. In the first, the government oppresses the people, in the latter, the government serves the people. 

History seems to show that the history of states mostly follows the first model, with the second model being a legal fiction that came about during the enlightenment and later. We reformed our states to reflect the ideals of the latter, and in such greatly improved our quality of life, but at the same time there are some models where we still reflect the logic of the former in some ways.

As Anderson's book would point out, with the name of it being "private government", our work places still largely reflect the "old world" logic. Anderson talked in her first chapter about how the market used to be this left wing idea, but back then, it was the 1800s. And we were talking America. We know Anderson's work ethic book talked about the history and brutality of capitalism in Europe, but early on, in America, it was a bit different. It used to be that the market was seen as a way for people to earn their own way, acquire their own land, and be self sufficient. The logic that government socialism was bad came from the "gift economy" of Europe and how nobles were beholden to monarchs who gave them stuff in exchange for loyalty. Work used to be about self sufficiency, as one could just acquire a plot of land and be independent. A lot of our conservative american ideals like the american dream and our exceptionalism came from the early 1800s and the founding of the country. But eventually, post civil war, we industrialized, much like Europe, and capitalist relations became oppressive, much like Europe. 

Nowadays, the American dream is mostly a thing of the past (IMO), something that people cling to, but had been long lost. We're not in the early 1800s any more. We're not an agrarian society, we're an advanced industrial to post industrial society, much like Europe. Most people work for an employer, much like Europe, and people are forced to be subject to mini dictatorships known as "work places." We consider this "voluntary", which apparently justifies them, but when one's access to the basics of life are tied to labor, how can we truly consider this the case? We can't. 

Socialists talk a lot about wanting to democratize the work place. Im apathetic on this. I still have more traditional liberal ideals on the market. I believe the core problem is people being forced to work in the first place. I see work as inherently unpleasant, and an necessary evil. I see the modern workplace as a severe infringement on our freedoms, with private government being almost as oppressive as government government. Anderson portrays the work place as almost like a communist government. We wouldnt tolerate a communist government infringing our freedoms in such a way, but in our dystopian capitalist market logic with forced labor, we see this as a okay, because people "voluntarily" agreed to it. Even though you dont functionally have a choice.

So how do we fix this? Well, the best approach is with the government government. Of course, right "libertarians" will say what private entities agree to is of no business of the government's, but given the transactions arent particularly voluntary, regulation, taxation and spending on universal social programs, etc. actually can be morally justified. After all, the entire logic behind the social contract IMO is that we set aside a little bit of our natural liberty to enjoy the rest in greater security. We give up the right to murder to avoid being murdered. We give up the right to steal so we can enjoy greater security in property rights. By the same logic, we can give up some of our absolute liberty to accept bad business deals, to ensure that only ethical deals exist, or to ensure that the deals are actually voluntary. As Anderson has touched on, and I am also a believer of, there's more than one kind of liberty anyway. Most accept only negative liberty, ie, the right to be left alone, but anderson talks of positive liberty and republican liberty. I emphasize various brands of positive liberty myself, believing both in van parijs' "real freedom" as well as widerquists "freedom as power to say no", not just to any job but no jobs.

The "propertarians" (as widerquist) would call them act as if taxation is theft, but in reality, so is property, as Anderson points out, simply enforcing property rights requires a massive sacrifice of the community in respecting one's property rights. It only makes sense the community as a whole gets paid back for this right, and the inconvenience and burdens placed on them. I think the best way to do this is to ensure that every individual is entitled to enough property to ensure no one is forced into wage slavery. And it should be paid for with taxation. Some people might not like that, but tough crap, I dont like being forced to work for others just to obtain a wage in order to survive and meet my basic needs. Wage labor in the form that exists is literally a form of slavery, just one in which we went our lives out on an hourly basis instead of being owned outright. There's nothing wrong with wage labor, as long as it's voluntary, just as there's nothing wrong with consensual sex, as long as it isn't rape. 

If we want to reclaim the true american dream, the one of the early 1800s, we need to implement a UBI, universal healthcare, and other universal services as we see fit. This is justified simply in the people demanding it, and demanding our society reflect this new philosophy and way of thinking. If our society is just, and our society reflects the second model of governance and authority, the government is our servant. It is morally and legally required to do what we ask of it. And if this means a curtailing of property rights, so be it, these rights arent natural ones from god, but human ones from people anyway. People created them, people can take them away. What is unjust is forcing us to live according to these undemocratic edicts based on divine command theory or some other anti democratic logic and imposing a system on people that functionally enslaves them. As I always say with human centered capitalism, either our society exists to serve us, or we exist to serve it. A society that exists to serve us is one that is legitimate, in my ideal on authority. One where we are forced to serve it, is one that is unjust, and one that can justly be dismantled by the people, if they so choose. Much of our modern logic for the justification of the states is based on the model of democracy and social contract, but for some reason property rights and the consequences that come from them are still treated as this inalienable divinely inspired right that cant be changed, even if they impose negative conseuqneces that condemn the majority of humanity to de facto slavery and oppression for most of their lives. I say we change it. There's no reason we can't. These ideas only hold as much power as we collectively give them, and as much as our social structures impose them on us. 

Obviously, I'm not, in any of this, calling for the abolishment of property itself, as some leftists do. All societies need a system of determining who gets what. There's nothing wrong with a system of private property, within reason. We just shouldnt treat it as something handed down from god and treat it as sacred to the point that it enslaves us. These social structures exist to serve us. We should make them serve us. And that's my view on that. And on authority in general. 

EDIT: As for how we can avoid UBI falling into the of a "gift economy", the key is to make it universal and unconditional. UBI, and its correspondiing universal services like healthcare, and education, need to be treated as universal rights every citizen and possibly legal resident is entitled to. The fewer restrictions, the better. The government will only hold power over people if it sets conditions on those things to extract obedience on people. If people are entitled to these things as citizens and they cannot be taken away, then the people will not have their freedom abridged. Quite frankly, conditional welfare and employment are greater threats to freedom than UBI and other corresponding ideas are. 

If republicans are oh so concerned about heated political rhetoric, they should be the ones to tone it down

 So, the republicans are going with this line that the reason Trump keeps being targetted by would be assassins is because of democratic rhetoric claiming he's a threat to democracy. As someone who deals in this rhetoric, my response: "have you considered not being a threat to democracy?" I dont use the rhetoric lightly. I avoided painting trump in existential terms in 2016 and 2020, despite many fellow lefties and democrats doing so. I rolled my eyes at such rhetoric, but this time, Trump is scary. He literally incited a mob to overturn the results of the 2020 election. HE engaged in heated rhetoric. he's also talked about suspending the constitution, being a dictator for a day, locking up political opponents, and so many other things that arent worth mentioning or counting. THe fact is, trump has lobbed so many rhetorical bombs since 2015 or so that it's impossible to count them all in one simple blog post. Heck, last week he started talking about haitian immigrants eating dogs and cats and now neo nazis and KKK members are making threats against haitian immigrants, even though the narrative has been thoroughly debunked as nonsense. But hey, we're supposed to tone it down by pointing this behavior out? Screw you, Trump. I don't agree with the would be assassins, I've condemned them several times over the past few months, including a post today, but come on, the reason there's so much heightened rhetoric about you is because you're saying blatantly incendiary and dangerous stuff. And JD Vance, despite pushing the same narrative, himself has made criticisms about Trump being a threat to democracy. He might be distancing himself from those comments, and even claiming to being willing to go along with Trump's coup if he were in Pence's shoes, but that's the pathetic thing about vance. He sold out HIS principles for power. And he is now part of the same problem, and just as dangerous as Trump is in my eyes.

And to focus on the other side of the equation, did any of the shooters attempted or otherwise embrace the specific anti dem rhetoric that was spoken of? Crooks was a right wing republican. He wasnt that politically motivated, he had the same mentality as your typical school shooter. And I say that as someone with a criminology degree btw. I at least feel qualified enough for a cursory analysis on that. As for this new guy, Routh, details are still coming out about him. He looks like he was pro trump in 2016 and became anti trump in recent years. He voted in the dem primaries this year, but also endorsed a lot of republican candidates running against trump. He also seemed to be a whack case with tons of firearm charges in the past. If either of these shooters tell me anything, it's that maybe we should consider stricter gun control in this country if we want to stop gun violence. Of course, the GOP ain't ready for that conversation. And I'm kind of pro second amendment in principle anyway. I wouldnt mind SOME stricter gun control, but I would be leery of an assault rifle or high capacity mag ban. It seems obvious that neither shooter really should've had access to firearms though. Especially this Routh guy. 

But yeah. As such, can we even say its the heightened rhetoric that is the problem here? It doesnt seem to be the common denominator here. Neither shooter was a die hard democrat, and while the second one was very obviously anti trump, he seemed independent if anything. Anyway, my abvove comments still stand. My honest view is if Trump or his buddies want people to tone down their rhetoric regardless of him, maybe he should stop doing things that justify such rhetoric in the first place? It aint that hard. I ain't for exaggerating or catastrophizing candidates as existentially evil unless the situation calls for it. I mean, I remember the GOP doing this to every democrat in my lifetime and it backfired pretty hard, and I dont normally appreciate dems acting in the same way either. I'm only treating Trump in such a way on this blog because...yeah...he really IS that dangerous. Reporting on things he's said and done hardly seems worthy of criticism. If you dont like people saying bad things about you, dont do bad things, it's that simple. I consider myself a fair and reasonable person on such matters. And yeah, that's how I see it. 

Monday, September 16, 2024

Ok, seriously, can we not shoot orange man? (or anyone else for that matter)

 Another day, another assassination attempt. But yeah, I get that the guy is a threat to democracy, but can we NOT try to kill him? Doing so isn't in alignment with the norms of democracy and rule of law in the first place. These things exist for good reason, and we saw that reason a bit the last time he was shot at, with his followers rearing to go with civil war 2. The point of civil society is to discourage vigilante violence. Without it, people will just start killing each other. We let the state arbitrate differences because the alternative is people will...do this. ANd we don't want where this goes. Do we want trumpers taking shots at our candidates? Don't do it against theirs. Again, deescalate this crap right now.

Second of all, trump is, to my knowledge, the weakest candidates the republicans can run. If trump dies, whoever he is replaced with could poll higher. So...we're just screwing over our own chances. Im kind of in the camp that "god let trump win so he could lose to a black woman" camp we had the last time this discussion happened.

Third, on the topic of "god", yeah, maybe it's good this guy lives. he might be essential to us getting the best possible time line, even if short sighted thinking indicates otherwise. It could be the only way the dems win is if trump is on the republican ticket. It could be if trump wins the US devolves into civil war, or something in the timeline happens that leads to some sort of major global conflict, or even just, the worst case scenario in climate change. I dont believe god intervenes in politics often, but I actually have come to believe god may protect certain individuals (even evil ones) in order to get the timeline where we DONT destroy ourselves. It's not that god would endorse their politics per se, they might just serve as a villain to ensure that we move the other way, but yeah. You dont have to believe this one, but given how all the trumpers keep going on about how he's "protected by god", yeah, I do have an alternative opinion on that. 

Either way, dont try to shoot trump. Not only does it lead to bad consequences for you, it could lead to disastrous consequences for the country. Vote against him peacefully. We are a country based on the peaceful transfer of power and disrupting that is actually bad. It's bad when he did it in 2021, it's bad if we do it now. 

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Can we stop acting like it's soooo haaaarrrrdddd for a woman/person of color to be elected?

 So, I've heard people asking if Harris's biggest liability is her race or gender. And uh...no. The black/indian mixed race woman is actually polling several points higher than the 81 year old white male. If race and gender is a liability, it's far less so than age. So why are people making a big deal about this? Easy, because these politics are based on grievance and they have to perpetuate the grievance or appearance of it to remain relevant. If the problems of racism and sexism were solved, then the movements would disappear and become irrelevant. So to some extent they end up just moving the goal posts every time to remain relevant. We started with legitimate grievances that were straightforward, but as women and people of color gained power and influence, they start dealing with more and more esoteric issues that literally require a sociology degree to understand. Im not saying that these issues are illegitimate, but we're to the point of dealing with diminishing returns for the political capital we expend, and to some extent the people who advocate for these views simply believe that the system is stacked against them to the point of playing the persecution card at any opportunity. ANd if anything is a liability, it's that. People don't like that stuff, and that's a key reason Clinton lost. It's not that a woman couldnt win, it's that a woman who constantly complains about sexism can't win because people dont wanna hear it. Double down by going after white males in your coalition who dont care about racial/sexual issues and dont be surprised when you lose. Thankfully Harris is doing much better than that. Shes not leaning into the stuff, only terminally online resist libs are, but yeah those resist libs are still annoying. No one likes this stuff. It's not that people dont like women of color (well, anyone who doesnt is a die hard trump voter anyway), it's that people dont like it laid on thick and hear people complaining about it all of the time.

So what IS harris's biggest liability? I would say it's her being Bidens VP. Remember the old white male no one liked? Yeah. She's in his shadow. He's extremely unpopular, and a lot of people don't think Harris is gonna be any better. They ask what her policies are and dont seem impressed by what they hear. because it's 95% what Biden was for. And people have to ask "if you wanna do all of this stuff, why arent you doing it already? Youre VP" and while there are answers related to obstruction elsewhere in the political system, people dont wanna hear that. Just as the privilege stuff goes over their head, so does a complex discussion on separation of powers. So...yeah. I would argue 2024 is gonna be in part a referendum on joe biden, just as 2020 was a referendum on trump and 2016 a referendum on obama/clinton. If people are unhappy with the party in power, they'll vote for the other party. Harris isn't her own candidate. She's a continuation of the biden administration. But when no one wants a second biden term, which was why he was tanking in the polls massively, well, you can see why things are as they are. Trump has a formidable coalition, biden was deeply unpopular and shedding significant parts of his own coalition. Harris brought some of them back but malaise and dissatisfaction remains and voters are reluctant to embrace Harris for a variety of reasons, and yeah.

This is a year that by rights, the dems should lose. The fact that we have ANY shot at all at this point is a miracle. Remember, Biden's PEAK polling all year was around a 33% shot. Harris closed the gap to make it 50-50. Harris is in the best position we've been all cycle to win. If we lose, it's not because she's a woman or black/indian and if only we ran some straight white christian male we would poll better. Because the ancient straight white christian male we had polled WORSE. And a lot of that was age, but still. The democrats are just in a bad position in 2024. The woman of color is the best shot we've had. Remember that. if Harris loses, it's not because of racism and sexism among independent voters (keep in mind most of those crapbags are trumpers), it's because the dems were just set up for failure by the biden administration creating malaise. Keep in mind my energy theory. The party that is more fired up generally wins. Dems have had morale problems all year, the trumpers are fired up. Harris actually raised our enthusiasm, and while i will say we're past the honey moon period as evidenced by a slight slump in the past couple of weeks foor harris, she's still in this and this is probably our ceiling. Keep in mind, a repeat 2020 or 2022 performance is our best case scenario this year. We arent topping that in the current environment. Harris is doing the best the democrats are gonna do, and if we had a white male on the ticket, we'd be doing no better.