So, doing very brief election updates while on break. Theres a debate next week and this is a good point to establish the baseline. This won't be a full update because I dont wanna spend a metric crapton of time on this, but I will cover the basics.
So yeah we are regressing slightly. Polls are shifting a little bit back to Trump. We're down to a 51% chance for Harris and a 49% chance for Trump. Georgia is now the deciding state since Nevada is now in the blue column. Pennsylvania is at 50-50. So yeah, functionally, the race is a dead heat. If I had to guess it either way I'd guess it for Harris but there's virtually no level of certainty there.
Btw on texas, RCP is still counting a Trump +13 poll from January on harris and that's not going to be relevant. Im trying to avoid modifying their averages, but this is massively throwing off the averages, and it's old data that's probably not good any more, especially because I'm seeing multiple polls in the 4-5 range (keep in mind i was defaulting to multi candidate data before this poll came in since that's how little i trust an old poll from January. Remember how Biden was down 4 vs Harris now and Harris then was worse than that?).
While I wouldn't expect Texas or Florida to seriously flip, they are now as much in play as Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota in the blue column. Good to keep an eye on them.
Senate data:
Some states are shifting to be slightly more competitive, especially Florida and Texas for republicans, and Ohio and Pennsylvania for democrats, but it's still 49-51R. Republicans still have an 86% chance, democrats a 10% chance, and a 4% chance of a tie.
And yeah. That's my very short election update. Not doing maps. I must get back to relaxing.
No comments:
Post a Comment