Quick election update (9/3/24)

 So, I'm going to be officially on break tomorrow and will be returning by the end of September. I might post here and there, but no promises. As such, I want to get one last election update in before I go. Not much changed from Friday, but I do want to make it a bit more updated. 

Presidential

Basically, Harris has a 55% chance of winning, Trump a 45% chance. Georgia is now tilt red, Nevada is now a tossup. Everything else changed around the margins. 

Electoral map is 271-261 Harris with Nevada as a tossup. 

As for the simulator:

Harris: 56%

Trump: 41%

Tie: 3%

Again, keep in mind the simulator just simulates random outcomes in a relatively brute force way. While it likely will predict THE result, I don't generally use it to predict who will win statistically as the linear "wave" model of elections is likely more accurate. However, randomness does what randomness does, so it is interesting to see what direction the simulator is leaning in, especially when the election is this close.

Senate

Same old forecast, GOP has an 89% chance of winning, dems a 8% chance, and the other 3% is a tie.

The dems are kinda screwed here. I know I heard the dems are telling Tester in Montana to do whatever he can to get elected, even if he has to bash the national party to do so. So if he wins he might be going Joe Manchin on us for all we know. Not a good situation to be in, but the electoral realities this time are rough.

And yeah, obviously, 49-51R outcome is most likely.

As for the simulator:

Republicans: 85%

Tie: 11%

Democrats: 4%

Somewhat surprised the ties are more likely here, and that if anything republican odds are downplayed, but to be fair it's not that far off from what I'd expect given the circumstances. Dems do have a decent chance of winning according to the more brute force simulation approach to elections all things considered, it's not completely out of reach for them, but in practice, given I default to the linear model, I think that 49-51R is a pretty safe bet to make right now. 

Conclusion

And that's possibly my final prediction for 3 weeks. I doubt I'll not post ANYTHING between now and then, but I MIGHT not. Depends if I feel like it. But don't expect it. I will still keep compiling the polls and measuring the odds so when I come back to this eventually I'll discuss what happened this month.