So, I'm seeing a lot of doomering recently, even from people like Nate Silver, claiming Harris is in decline. Eh...I have mixed thoughts. As of yesterday, the race went back to 50-50, while Harris was up to like 51-58% recently. It's like she peaked and things are back to 50-50. But, let's be honest, I consider anything within 40-60% to effectively be a tie. Even if one candidate is an underdog, they could easily win. Consider Trump 2016, for example. Consider some of the 2022 senate candidates like Fetterman. It can happen. I will say we seemed to reach the new normal, where Harris's upward trend peaked, and we're now fluctuating back and forth. I struggle to say she's full on in decline though, even if her trend line is going down a little. it could be statistical noise, and it's only shifting the polling averages by a few tenths of a percent overall. I'd like to see a larger shift before I act like some major trend is happening.
For reference, here's the trend line:
I mean, yeah, it's a reversal of the trend, but it's not really a massive shift. Ever since we reached 50-50, it's been bouncing up and down. I expect that to keep happening. Maybe the debate will change things tonight. I know I'm on break, but I do plan on watching that. Not sure I'll report on it here, but yeah, I will at least watch it.
As I see it though, the race is dead locked. It's the most competitive election I've ever followed, and it's too close to call right now.
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