Friday, September 13, 2024

Election Update 9/13/24

 So another brief election update.


Race is 50-50, Harris has been backsliding a little in the margins, but nothing that fundamentally changes the nature of the race.

I did some simulations too. 52-45-3 is how they came out (Harris-Trump-Tie).

I also made a second simulation of just the big seven swing states (MI/WI/PA/AZ/NV/GA/NC) and got 57-41-2 with that one. So the race is, if anything, slightly favoring Harris, but it's still very close. 

As far as the senate:


Once again, mostly changes around the edges. GOP has an 86% chance of outright control. Dems a 10% chance. 4% chance of a tie.

Simulations tell a slightly different story. They have an 81% chance of GOP control, 2% chance of democratic control, and a 17% chance of a tie. 

And yeah, that's a super abridged election update. 

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