Election Update 8/28/26

 Okay, so it's time to do my biweekly election update. Not a ton has changed, so let's go through it.

Senate

So not a ton has changed since my last update. Michigan now has El Sayed leading which is something. It's not a huge lead but he wasnt down by much in the previous update. El Sayed is painted as some extremist weirdo, but my take is that perception only holds until Mike Rogers opens his mouth on ANYTHING. 

But yeah, same wild map that would be unthinkable in a normal election cycle. New Hampshire seemed to go down further into swinginess, which is weird. it's always been a weird state with weird politics, but given the national environment id normally expect states like NH and MI to be like SOLID blue, like if they made my chart at all, they'd be like D+8-12 or something. Seeing them along side places like Alaska and Texas is wild. The map really does seem to be changing as we shift toward a more post trump environment (I mean electorally, he's done, he's a lame duck, the country is against him, 2028 is looking to be a 2008esque powder keg at this rate). 

But yeah, 63% chance the dems win, 37% the GOP wins including ties. Most likely outcome looking 53-47D. 

House

Not a ton has changed, a slight regression for democrats but polls are gonna fluctuate. Democrats have a 95.1% chance of controlling the chamber, with the most likely result being 229-206D. keep in mind, this is a fundamentals driven model, and while I havent seen extensive polling data yet where I feel comfortable building a polls based one, I have seen some data that contradicts this and much of it seems to favor the democrats. We'll see how things continue to develop. 

Governors

Not a lot of change here. New Hampshire is again, strangely conservative, but Ayotte is apparently popular there and they have strange politics unique to their own state. Beyond that, the map is pretty good for democrats. Crowley in wisconsin is pulling further ahead. Georgia is becoming more swingy, which aint good, but I suspect Lance Bottoms will pull it off. 

Again, some data is strange given how we normally think of the maps. It could be that something is off, but based on that analysis of the 21st century's presidential election maps, I'm guessing the map is realigning to reflect a dislike for Trump and the status quo, and that the map is opening up in preparation for the 2028 battlegrounds. So states like Michigan and New Hampshire might remain swingy, but then states like Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska come into play more, at least for some races. It's strange, politics are shifting and our perceptions gotta change if we wish to remain relevant and not pull a Romney 2012. 

Conclusion

A pretty ho hum election update. Some minute shifts along the edges, maybe a flipped race or two, but it's generally very similar to the previous one, just with some things shifting around by 1-2 points. But that happens, and if that momentum continues, think of where the race will be a month from now or by election day.

Anyway, september is likely going to be a busy month for me. I'm not sure how much time I'll be spending on here. But I do plan to make another biweekly update around the 11th. Might be a little later in the weekend maybe, but yeah. I'm gonna try to stick to the current schedule for the most part. Maybe after thinks settle down going into october I can shift to a more weekly model leading up to the election itself.  We'll see. 

Anyway, that's where things are, see you for the next one.