Election Update 5/24/24

 So, I was considering waiting another week, but it's a holiday weekend this weekend, I ain't expecting more polls out for three days, and it's as good as a time as any to give an election update.

2 way: Trump +1.0%

5 way: Trump +2.4%

This is a somewhat positive shift from last time toward Biden. It still favors Trump, but it does so, in theory, less than it would last time I did this (we were at Trump +1.5%/3.2% last time).

As for the electoral college:

State	Margin	Z score	% D win	% R win	EV if D wins	EV if R wins
New York	Biden +9.0%	-2.25	98.8%	1.2%	150	416
Illinois	Biden +9.0%	-2.25	98.8%	1.2%	169	388
Washington	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	181	369
New Mexico	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	186	357
Colorado	Biden +6.5%	-1.63	94.8%	5.2%	196	352
New Hampshire	Biden +5.3%	-1.33	90.8%	9.2%	200	342
Virginia	Biden +4.3%	-1.08	86.0%	14.0%	213	338
Minnesota	Biden +2.3%	-0.58	71.9%	28.1%	223	325
Maine	Biden +2.0%	-0.50	69.9%	30.1%	225	315
NE2 (estimated)	Biden +1.0%	-0.25	59.9%	40.1%	226	313
Wisconsin	Trump +0.1%	+0.03	48.8%	51.2%	236	312
Michigan	Trump +1.1%	+0.28	39.0%	61.0%	251	302
Pennsylvania	Trump +2.3%	+0.58	28.1%	71.9%	270	287
Georgia	Trump +4.0%	+1.00	15.9%	84.1%	286	268
Arizona	Trump +4.1%	+1.03	15.1%	84.9%	297	252
North Carolina	Trump +5.0%	+1.25	10.6%	89.4%	313	241
Nevada	Trump +5.3%	+1.33	9.2%	90.8%	319	225
Florida	Trump +9.0%	+2.25	1.2%	98.8%	349	219
Texas	Trump +9.3%	+2.33	1.0%	99.0%	389	189
Ohio	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	406	149
Iowa	Trump +11.5%	+2.88	0.2%	99.8%	412	132
Alaska	Trump +12.0%	+3.00	0.1%	99.9%	415	126

Yikes. There's a lot of changes to talk about. First of all, Washington is technically in play now at Biden +8. What the heck? Is polling really off this year or are the dems really doing this badly? New York and Illinois are just out of play at +9. Illinois was at +9 but NY had gotten significantly closer to the in play line over time here. 

Then you got New Hampshire. Went from barely in play, Biden +8 to Biden +5.3%. That's kind of crazy. Biden still has a 91% shot at taking it, but that's a huge downgrade from a 98% shot. Trump is about 4.5x more likely to capture it now, looking at it that way. 

The actual middle has kind of stayed...mostly the same though. Now Pennsylvania is the decider at +2.3% for Trump, giving Biden a 28% chance, and Trump a 72% chance. Michigan and Wisconsin are more blue, but again, what really matters is that 270 hurdle. You can get everything up to that point but if you dont get that deciding state (or a state beyond that point, which is less likely), you're screwed. So this is a slight shift in the wrong direction. A lot of shifts happening against Biden here.

And then you got that last batch of swing states. All in all, a bit more pro Trump. Georgia has shifted up to 4.0%, Arizona is down to 4.1% from 5%. North Carolina shifted down to 5%. Nevada went WAY up into like the 6-7ish range between updates, but is back down to 5.3%. None of these are looking great for Biden. He won't need them if he can take the rust belt, but yeah this isn't a particularly favorable map. All in all, we're talking a 226-312 Trump win again. 

And yeah that's my update. And if you wonder about the 5 way, Pennsylvania is still the deciding state at 2.4%, so almost nothing changes. Individual states might be higher or lower than current predictions, but nothing functionally changes.