And of course the dude is already whining "it was rigged", and you know what? Screw you, Trump. You said that in 2020 too. You got your just desserts here and I look forward to you facing the consequences of that.
Now what will be the consequences? I don't know. Normally felonies come with lots of prison time. Looking into it online, it looks like he could get anything from probation to 4 years in prison for each offense (and theres 34 of them). They could also make him serve all of them concurrently, which would mean he would only serve 4 years. Now, that means he probably wouldn't run in 2028, if he would only be getting out of jail NOW, but we don't know.
Polling wise, I've seen it said that a conviction could shift polls toward Biden by up to 7 points a while back. Going by my most recent prediction, a 7 point shift would lead to a decisive 319-219 Biden win. Pennsylvania would remain the tipping point, but it would be expected to go 4.7% Biden, not 2.3% Trump, which would lead to an 88.1% chance Biden would win and a 11.9% chance Trump does. Of course, that assumes that tidbit of information is true.
It also assumes Trump will remain the GOP nominee. He got the nomination via voting already, but just like the results of the 2020 election werent certified until January 6th, the results of the primaries won't be official until the Republican National Convention in July. And given that the parties don't technically have to abide by the democratic results, and given the situation is unprecedented territory as we've never had a convicted felon as a major party nominee before, we could see the parties just throw out the rulebook and nominate whomever they chose. Maybe Nikki Haley, as she had the second most amount of votes and delegates.
As for Nikki Haley vs Biden, this hasnt been polled in a while, nor has it been extensively polled where I have a solid prediction, but Nikki Haley vs Biden actually looked worse for the democrats. At least Haley isn't fricking insane and wouldnt overturn the election. But still, the GOP is still kinda insane and she would be fronting some pretty crazy policies. And given the issues with Biden's economic legacy if he loses, it still might be a good idea for me to back Biden here. Still, we won't know what will happen from here.
And that's the thing, we really don't know. We're totally in unprecedented territory here and there's so many variables that suddenly just threw this election up into the air. We will find out over the upcoming days and months, but yeah, we're all learning as we go I think. I'll update if I have anything major to discuss.
EDIT: It looks like Trump's sentencing isn't until July 11. Ugh, why does this take so long? I thought we'd get something like tomorrow or next week or something. I guess given the complex circumstances of the case it makes sense though.
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