So, as we know, I'm voting for Biden this time around. However, part of my choice this time is decided by the times, and how we live in a two party system, and how Trump is a psycho, and Biden isnt half bad. It's a defensive move. I feel a need to defend him, his policies, and his presidency, against conservative assault, and that losing at this point in time would be pretty destructive to the left.
But let's say we didn't have to vote for a lesser evil. And I could rank candidates, and still put Biden at like 3rd or 4th place and just make him higher priority than trump. Would my choices be the same? That is the question, isnt it?
More recently, I did a reranking based on metric 1 where I came up with the following pecking order.
Biden - 64 (although I'd probably remove another point or two over gaza at this point)
Stein- 55
West- 52
RFK- 31
Trump- 8
Outside of west and stein, it's a pretty clear pecking order, with Biden at the top.
However, my voting metric does tend to have a 10 point advantage for democrats baked into it in order to compensate for the spoiler effect. Third party candidates have to score 10+ points better to compete with democrats. And this is designed to account for the threat of trump, and make it where a third party candidate would have to do overwhelmingly better than Biden to be able to comfortably beat him. But if I removed the 10 point advantage, Biden would get a 54, which, again, given im cooling on his stance on gaza, we're actually talking a 52-53.
So basically, Stein, West, and Biden would all get in the 52-55 range. They are effectively tied. I mean, let's not split hairs over a couple points. These metrics are subjective, to some extent, how i rate candidates is subjective, and while they do a good job and generally track with my preference, when you come down to within 3 points or something, that's splitting hairs and simply weighting something slightly differently could lead to a difference. So this is margin of error territory here. Let's assume they're functionally tied.
Okay, well if they're functionally tied, what priorities should i emphasize? We're no longer talking about beating trump. Either one of them would be ranked higher than trump on an RCV ballot. Leftists like stein and west tend to excel over Biden on economics. It doesnt show up a ton in the metric because Biden was still okay on my priorities, and given im weighing the overall package, even though I like Stein better in theory, it's close, and I go back and forth. My big issue with stein is the whole green new deal thing. I like build back better, and I see the green new deal as potentially offering an opportunity cost between that and say, UBI. Stein in theory supports a UBI, but she supports a UBI the way I support a green new deal. In practice its low priority and push comes to shove she will go for a more moderate alternative to make room for her top policies. Thats why, while Stein does better than Biden on UBI, for example, it's not an overwhelming advantage. And in general Biden has been competitive enough on economics to do...okay. Stein still has a stronger pro UBI and M4A stance, and a stronger economic platform in general, and this is reflected in my analysis....but then she does so much worse on everything else. She's bad on experience, and while im critiquing biden on foreign policy now, Stein is an absolute "anti war" mental case whose policies would destroy this country, like literally. She's like king fritz in AOT. Like "yeah you can invade, were not gonna stop you". Ok, that might be an exaggeration, but still she supports like what, 50-80% military cuts? Yeah, insane.
I mean, say what I want about Biden, AT WORST Id still rate him a 7 on foreign policy. Possibly an 8. And heres the thing. Even if harshly condemned him on his gaza stance at this point, he's still done a good job otherwise. He's played the stable ship captain who doesnt make radical turns and keeps us in a good position, he hasnt messed up in a national security sense in any way. He's gotten us out of afghanistan. He's done the right thing on ukraine. I can overlook gaza to some extent. Even on foreign policy alone, it's not the only priority of mine. This is why i deemphasize it so much. AT MOST its like a 3 point loss from me, and only if i come down HARD on it. So basically the rough margin of error between stein and biden anyway (and honestly id probably consider voting for someone within 5 points of the top candidate push comes to shove).
As such, I guess it comes down to this. If i werent forced to play defense with biden, someone who i like but dont LOVE politically, what would my vote mean? My vote this time is primarily defensive. Defend democracy from trump. Defend Biden's economic legacy from trump's attacks. But say i didnt have to play defense and I could cram Biden down in say, third, under Cornel West...would I?
Good question.
I guess, maybe I would. Because my default position is to prioritize economics. And Stein and West both score a bit stronger on econ than Biden would. I could still defend Biden from Trump, while voting my heart out for policies like UBI and Medicare for all. After all, if the coalitions do collapse and it comes down to Biden vs Trump, I'm STILL prioritizing Biden over Trump. Im STILL condemning trump by putting him in last place. I'm STILL defending Biden's economics over trump, just virtue signalling I want someone to his left, which I do. And I would STILL be criticizing his gaza stance, pushing him left on that, with west and stein being the more progressive option.
As such, yeah, without first past the post, I WOULD be voting more based on virtue signals and policy IDEALS rather than being forced to make the more pragmatic decision to vote for Biden within this flawed system.
Biden aint bad. He's clearly more polished than both Stein and West in some areas. And it does come down to the margin of error. I dont DISLIKE biden. No one is really perfect. But yeah I guess if i didnt HAVE to vote for him to stop trump, I probably would support Stein instead.
It's not a STRONG preference this time, which is why im fine with lesser evil voting. It's just that with ranked choice voting, rather than having the "pragmatic" concerns be the ultimate tie breaker, it would be support for policies like UBI and M4A. Which is, quite frankly, how politics SHOULD be.
Now, in future elections, will i continue lesser evil voting? I dont know. I dont have a crystal ball. It really depends. It depends on how psycho the GOP is, and ultimately, it depends on how good the dem candidates are and how crappy the third party ones are.
In 2020, I had a VERY clear preference for third parties over Biden. Like a good 20-25 point difference at the time. I felt FAR more strongly about third party voting, my economic concerns, and rejecting the dems and their lesser evil nonsense in 2020. And I do ultimately believe that voters need to stand up for the dems by NOT voting for them, eventually. But we gotta be careful when and how we do this, especially given how crazy the GOP currently is. Right now, by current metrics, including pragmatic metrics, Biden is ahead. Of course, this was ultimately decided by the concerns specific to 2024. Biden exceeded expectations on economics, even if he wasnt perfect. Foreign policy matters more (and not just gaza, keeping the ship of state steady in the face of threats like Russia and China). I diverged with the traditional left on economics to push my vision of human centered anti work capitalism. And of course, trump is a literal authoritarian psycho who can't be allowed to hold office.
As such, I will vote Biden this time. The concerns of the time cause me to want to table my ambitions a bit to defend what we have. And of course, Biden has tried to be Bernie lite, for what it's worth. Whether this pattern holds in future elections is debatable. 2028 could represent a different set of conditions. We could be seeing Gretchen Whitmer vs Nikki Haley or something. That would require a much different moral calculus than exists in 2024. And yeah.
So, TLDR, yes, I would vote for Jill Stein I guess if we lived in a ranked choice voting system. My concerns would be different and Id be more likely to just go full principles on economics I guess. But, Im not particularly dissatisified with Biden, he's been "good enough" for me, and yeah, the circumstances require a more lesser evil type vote this time around.
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