Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Election Update: 7/19/16

Ok, if I'm going to make these more frequently, I'm going to try to make a template to follow to get to the point with less commentary. I can get verbose and these can take a while, so I want to get get to the point.

Aggregate polling

Clinton 43.8%, Trump 40.6% (Clinton +3.2)

This is down from 4 points last time. Trump appears to be gaining.

Aggregate polling with third party candidates

Clinton- 41.4%, Trump- 37.3%, Johnson- 8.3%, Stein- 3.7% (Clinton +4.1)

Clinton does better with third party candidates counted. So much for splitting the vote.

Electoral College

Changes: Wisconsin is now considered in play, Clinton is starting out with 200, Trump is starting out with 156.

Arizona - 0.5% Clinton (no change)

Colorado - 8.0% Clinton (no longer considered swing but still counting it)

Florida - 0.6% Clinton (swung from Trump, but still close)

Georgia - 4.2% Trump (no change)

Iowa - 3.0% Clinton (down from 3.8)

Kentucky - 3.0% Clinton (no change, would like more data as it's considered a solid red state)

Michigan - 5.0% Clinton (down from around 7-8, this is surprising since I consider it a strong blue)

Nevada - 0.5% Trump (down from 4% Clinton, so it's a toss up

New Hampshire - 2.7% Clinton (no change)

North Carolina - 2.0% Clinton (gaining from 0.7%)

Ohio - 1.8% Clinton (gaining from 1.3%)

Pennsylvania - 3.2% Clinton (no change)

Virginia - 4.8% Clinton (up from 4.0%)

Wisconsin - 5.6% Clinton

Maine CD2 - 1% Trump (no change)

So overall, we saw some states flip, some stay the same. The leads in some increase, the leads in some decrease. Let's look at the election scenarios now.

Election Scenarios

Most likely scenario with toss ups - 319-172 Clinton

Most likely scenario (best guess) - 359-179 Clinton

All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 366-172 Clinton

All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 319-219 Clinton

Trump + 2 - 286-252 Clinton

Trump + 3 - 268-270 Trump

Trump + 4 - 248-290 Trump

Unlike the last scenario, North Carolina is no longer a toss up, but Nevada now is. Arizona, Florida, and Maine CD2 are still toss ups. Arizona and Florida go to Clinton based on current data, but Nevada and Maine CD2 go to Trump. Either way, Trump loses based on most likely current projections.

However, margins in various states have gone down where Trump is now able to narrowly win if he gets an overall net gain of 3 points. Last time he would have narrowly lost. Blame Nevada and Iowa for this change. Under a 4 point scenario, Trump wins by a lesser margin though because Virginia has become more solidly blue.

All in all, Clinton has gained in the most likely scenario since she takes Florida and North Carolina, but she does poorer in scenarios in which Trump hypothetically gets support. So while Clinton still has a solid lead over Trump all in all in the electoral college, Trump has likely made some slight net gains that could tip the scales to his favor.

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