So last night, I blasted Hillary Clinton for her triangulation
election strategy that works to make her a mere lesser evil of the left,
undermining their views at every turn in order to win over moderates
while still intimidating her base to vote for her even when they don’t
like her. However, despite my dislike of Hillary Clinton, she would
actually be a quite competent president. She is very experienced and her
policies would be effective. They just would not bring about the social
change I believe is necessary to make the economy work better and be
more just. Donald Trump on the other hand, has no idea what he is doing.
He says all these words, sometimes shockingly offensive words, but he
really does not seem to grasp the implications on what he’s saying.
He’s a charlatan, a con artist, a fraud.
Business experience does not make one an effective politician
A lot of people like Trump because he’s a businessman, and as a businessman, he knows how to create jobs, or something. While running a business may make one able to understand the perspective of business people, we should not forget the golden rule of the economy. Everyone is supposed to maximize their gains in the economy. Being able to run an effective business does not make one a job creator for the economy as a whole. Understanding microeconomics is not the same as understanding macroeconomics. His perspective will inevitably be skewed toward the perspective of the elite class he is a part of, not the same old average Joe. We see this in his advocacy for lower taxes and possibly not raising the minimum wage. He also does not understand the macroeconomic implications of his policies. You can’t just go up to Mexico and make them pay for a wall. You can’t just put tariffs on goods from China and expect that there be no economic repercussions from the WTO and the trade wars that would follow his ideas (it’s like the guy has never heard of the 1930 Smoot Hawley Tariff Act).
People are buying into a cult of personality
Trump, much like Reagan, for reference, relies heavily on a cult of personality to win people over. He doesn’t have to know what he’s doing. He just has to act like he knows what he’s doing. He doesn’t have to know policy to win votes. He just has to market himself in such a way to make it look like he knows exactly what is wrong with the country and that he has all the answers for fixing it. People think he has connections with others in the know, and because he can deal with Chinese customers in his bank he can cut some grand deal with the Chinese government. He knows we need a wall, and he’s such a good negotiator he will make Mexico pay for it! And again, he knows how to create jobs, he’s a businessman! In reality, Trump’s marketing for his presidential campaign is not much different than the marketing of his many business ventures, some of which have failed. He builds himself up to be larger than life, when in reality, his policies are fairly lackluster, and likely harmful to the country. He plays into this conservative power fantasy that conservatives fawn over, about how if only we have this tough, firm, all knowing strongman of a leader, all our problems will be fixed. He takes Reagan and Bush’s use of this strong man imagery and dials it up to an 11. Like the presidencies of Reagan and Bush though, they will work nowhere near as well as he claims they will though.
Trump is out of his depth on policy
Trump, in reality, knows nothing about policy. His trade policy would be a disaster, read up on the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act which I posted above. His idea will merely cause an unproductive trade war in the best scenario. I’m skeptical of the liberalization of trade too, and think we should have never signed NAFTA, and don’t think we should sign TPP or TTIP, but simply ripping up all our trade agreements that are unfavorable to it and slapping up to 45% tariffs on some goods will seriously hurt the American economy, without producing many of the benefits he promises. His tax plan is right out of the conservative playbook. Lower taxes will create jobs, they said, even though jobs are only created out of economic self interest, and just giving the rich more money does not mean they will spend it on salaries. It just means it will increase the wealth concentration like we’ve been seeing in this country for almost 40 years now. When asked how he would fix the unsustainability of social security in the Republican debates, he said he wouldnt raise retirement ages and that he would cut so much waste from “fraud and abuse”. The social security issue is that there is not enough money going in for the money going out, and the wastefulness of the program is actually quite minimal. While I applaud Trump for not wanting to cut social security like his republican colleagues, the guy has showed he knows absolutely nothing about the issue. It’s not simply that he comes to different conclusions than me. It’s that he has no freaking clue what he is doing. He does not understand the issues. He does not understand the policies. He makes vague calls to “make America great again by deporting all the illegals, building a wall, and somehow strongarming Mexico and China into more favorable trade agreements, and has no understanding of the implications for any of this, and does not seem to understand the issues at all. He is a fraud, he is a charlatan, he is a demagogue.
The silver lining of Trump’s incompetence
The bright side of Trump’s demagoguery is that while he has no idea what he is doing on policy, he is often out of lockstep with the mainstream republican party, which I view as a bunch of radical right wing extremists. Trump does not pose as much of a threat to the future of social security, since he’s basically kicking the can down the road. Despite his primary rhetoric about deporting illegals, going into the general, he suddenly loves Hispanics enough to pose with a taco bowl (tasteless, but a slight improvement). He seems to be flip flopping on the minimum wage and other issues too, at least rhetorically. The fact is, with Trump in office, it’s difficult to impossible to know what he will do or how he will react. Much like Clinton, I think he would “triangulate” in a way where he would be conservative with a republican congress and liberal with a democratic one. This is a marked improvement from the rest of the republican party, because he does not seem to fully believe a lot of the crazy stuff he is saying, and he will tone down his views as necessary if it means he would get something out of it politically. After all, the guy is just saying what he thinks people want him to say to win. This makes him a little less harmful in my opinion, considering the state of the modern GOP. He will not drink the ideological Kool Aid of the rest of the party and go down with the ship. He will change his positions to save his own skin. While I detest this behavior in a democrat since it means they will sell out my values, I welcome it in a republican because he will sell out their values.
I also suspect Trump could also implode the republican party in the way Carter imploded the democratic party. Due to his ideological differences with his republican colleagues, his rambunctious, confrontational attitude, and his incompetence, a Trump presidency would likely be short lived (one termer) and he would damage the republican party. While he may delegate many responsibilities out to advisors and be pretty much a puppet, he also could get strong willed when taking on people like Paul Ryan, who he does not get along with, creating infighting between the same party in different branches of government not seen since the 70s. His policies would also do nothing to help the working and middle classes, and make things worse. However, this would provoke a strong reaction that could benefit the democratic party and allow it to be more progressive than it’s been in decades. Only time will tell, but I think a Trump presidency could work out long term for the democrats and lefties in general, because he could be the last hurrah of a broken, dysfunctional party that has been digging its own grave since 2008. It should be noted the republican party will not be destroyed by this event, but it will be changed significantly.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Trump is a fraud, a huckster, a demagogue. This guy has no idea what he’s doing, but somehow convinced half the republican base to support him as the nominee. Perhaps it’s his relative moderation compared to the rest of the party combined with the frustration of the populace, or maybe people are falling for the cult of personality he has built up around himself. Either way, while his presidency would likely be awful, he would be significantly less harmful in my opinion than other republican candidates. In part because he has no sincere convictions and would likely be manipulated by the political winds, and in part because his incompetence could spell doom for his party. I cannot, in good conscience, vote for Trump. He’s a worse candidate than Hillary in almost every way, despite potentially being a slight improvement over the rest of the party.
Business experience does not make one an effective politician
A lot of people like Trump because he’s a businessman, and as a businessman, he knows how to create jobs, or something. While running a business may make one able to understand the perspective of business people, we should not forget the golden rule of the economy. Everyone is supposed to maximize their gains in the economy. Being able to run an effective business does not make one a job creator for the economy as a whole. Understanding microeconomics is not the same as understanding macroeconomics. His perspective will inevitably be skewed toward the perspective of the elite class he is a part of, not the same old average Joe. We see this in his advocacy for lower taxes and possibly not raising the minimum wage. He also does not understand the macroeconomic implications of his policies. You can’t just go up to Mexico and make them pay for a wall. You can’t just put tariffs on goods from China and expect that there be no economic repercussions from the WTO and the trade wars that would follow his ideas (it’s like the guy has never heard of the 1930 Smoot Hawley Tariff Act).
People are buying into a cult of personality
Trump, much like Reagan, for reference, relies heavily on a cult of personality to win people over. He doesn’t have to know what he’s doing. He just has to act like he knows what he’s doing. He doesn’t have to know policy to win votes. He just has to market himself in such a way to make it look like he knows exactly what is wrong with the country and that he has all the answers for fixing it. People think he has connections with others in the know, and because he can deal with Chinese customers in his bank he can cut some grand deal with the Chinese government. He knows we need a wall, and he’s such a good negotiator he will make Mexico pay for it! And again, he knows how to create jobs, he’s a businessman! In reality, Trump’s marketing for his presidential campaign is not much different than the marketing of his many business ventures, some of which have failed. He builds himself up to be larger than life, when in reality, his policies are fairly lackluster, and likely harmful to the country. He plays into this conservative power fantasy that conservatives fawn over, about how if only we have this tough, firm, all knowing strongman of a leader, all our problems will be fixed. He takes Reagan and Bush’s use of this strong man imagery and dials it up to an 11. Like the presidencies of Reagan and Bush though, they will work nowhere near as well as he claims they will though.
Trump is out of his depth on policy
Trump, in reality, knows nothing about policy. His trade policy would be a disaster, read up on the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act which I posted above. His idea will merely cause an unproductive trade war in the best scenario. I’m skeptical of the liberalization of trade too, and think we should have never signed NAFTA, and don’t think we should sign TPP or TTIP, but simply ripping up all our trade agreements that are unfavorable to it and slapping up to 45% tariffs on some goods will seriously hurt the American economy, without producing many of the benefits he promises. His tax plan is right out of the conservative playbook. Lower taxes will create jobs, they said, even though jobs are only created out of economic self interest, and just giving the rich more money does not mean they will spend it on salaries. It just means it will increase the wealth concentration like we’ve been seeing in this country for almost 40 years now. When asked how he would fix the unsustainability of social security in the Republican debates, he said he wouldnt raise retirement ages and that he would cut so much waste from “fraud and abuse”. The social security issue is that there is not enough money going in for the money going out, and the wastefulness of the program is actually quite minimal. While I applaud Trump for not wanting to cut social security like his republican colleagues, the guy has showed he knows absolutely nothing about the issue. It’s not simply that he comes to different conclusions than me. It’s that he has no freaking clue what he is doing. He does not understand the issues. He does not understand the policies. He makes vague calls to “make America great again by deporting all the illegals, building a wall, and somehow strongarming Mexico and China into more favorable trade agreements, and has no understanding of the implications for any of this, and does not seem to understand the issues at all. He is a fraud, he is a charlatan, he is a demagogue.
The silver lining of Trump’s incompetence
The bright side of Trump’s demagoguery is that while he has no idea what he is doing on policy, he is often out of lockstep with the mainstream republican party, which I view as a bunch of radical right wing extremists. Trump does not pose as much of a threat to the future of social security, since he’s basically kicking the can down the road. Despite his primary rhetoric about deporting illegals, going into the general, he suddenly loves Hispanics enough to pose with a taco bowl (tasteless, but a slight improvement). He seems to be flip flopping on the minimum wage and other issues too, at least rhetorically. The fact is, with Trump in office, it’s difficult to impossible to know what he will do or how he will react. Much like Clinton, I think he would “triangulate” in a way where he would be conservative with a republican congress and liberal with a democratic one. This is a marked improvement from the rest of the republican party, because he does not seem to fully believe a lot of the crazy stuff he is saying, and he will tone down his views as necessary if it means he would get something out of it politically. After all, the guy is just saying what he thinks people want him to say to win. This makes him a little less harmful in my opinion, considering the state of the modern GOP. He will not drink the ideological Kool Aid of the rest of the party and go down with the ship. He will change his positions to save his own skin. While I detest this behavior in a democrat since it means they will sell out my values, I welcome it in a republican because he will sell out their values.
I also suspect Trump could also implode the republican party in the way Carter imploded the democratic party. Due to his ideological differences with his republican colleagues, his rambunctious, confrontational attitude, and his incompetence, a Trump presidency would likely be short lived (one termer) and he would damage the republican party. While he may delegate many responsibilities out to advisors and be pretty much a puppet, he also could get strong willed when taking on people like Paul Ryan, who he does not get along with, creating infighting between the same party in different branches of government not seen since the 70s. His policies would also do nothing to help the working and middle classes, and make things worse. However, this would provoke a strong reaction that could benefit the democratic party and allow it to be more progressive than it’s been in decades. Only time will tell, but I think a Trump presidency could work out long term for the democrats and lefties in general, because he could be the last hurrah of a broken, dysfunctional party that has been digging its own grave since 2008. It should be noted the republican party will not be destroyed by this event, but it will be changed significantly.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Trump is a fraud, a huckster, a demagogue. This guy has no idea what he’s doing, but somehow convinced half the republican base to support him as the nominee. Perhaps it’s his relative moderation compared to the rest of the party combined with the frustration of the populace, or maybe people are falling for the cult of personality he has built up around himself. Either way, while his presidency would likely be awful, he would be significantly less harmful in my opinion than other republican candidates. In part because he has no sincere convictions and would likely be manipulated by the political winds, and in part because his incompetence could spell doom for his party. I cannot, in good conscience, vote for Trump. He’s a worse candidate than Hillary in almost every way, despite potentially being a slight improvement over the rest of the party.
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