Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Discussing democrats sugarcoating the debate debacle

 So...it's weird behavior. When things REALLY go south for the left, there seems to be this moment in which people realize "oh crap we're screwed", but then once people find a narrative, they cling to it and resolve the cognitive dissonance in their view that way. I personally find this to be harmful, since reality is going to slap you in the face sooner or later. Worldviews can only bend so much before breaking, and breaks can be more traumatic than just shifting your expectations as they go. When new evidence is presented to us, and there isn't a good reason to ignore it or contextualize it, it's good to accept it. 

But, the left has a habit of just burying their head in the sand when being approached with bad information. Sure, the right does this behavior too. If anything the right doubles down and creates entire alternative realities to the point they aren't even living in the same universe as the rest of us. But, the left, who I've historically held to higher standards, seems to do this behavior too. And it's frustrating when I see it.

I saw it in 2020. Biden was supposed to win by a landslide. Even I thought it wouldn't even be close. But then as more and more states started going red, many of us had an "oh crap" moment in which we realized we might actually lose to Trump again. I even saw people on this one forum of people who hate my guts asking "gee, was outofplatoscave right all along? After all, he's been warning us for months that this could happen", it was kind of hilarious to see. But then, as the race solidified around Biden, with the rust belt and PA going more blue as mail in votings came in, and states like Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada were in play, the narratives changed. "Biden has the most votes of any democratic candidate ever", and "centrism wins, look at all of those suburbanites", and blah blah blah. The fact is, once these guys found some footing within which they could rally around their same old ideology, they started doing so. It was frustrating to watch these guys start crapping their pants and being so close to getting it, only to go back to their same old positions and learn nothing.

That's how I feel like the left is treating the Fetterman Oz debate yesterday. As the dude malfunctioned on stage and struggled to get his points across, many of us on the left felt a heavy sinking feeling that we're screwed. I mean, that debate performance was inexcusable. It raised serious questions about Fetterman's mental fitness, and just from a debate standpoint, look, I don't care what your views are about the two candidates. Debates are ALWAYS about presentation and style, not substance. I've seen people regularly over the course of my life lose debates even if they've had the better position. Debates favor those who can present their points well, and can outmaneuver their opponents. A stage managed personality like Oz, who has been on TV before and knows how to come off looking good, is going to beat a literal stroke victim. Period, end of story. It doesn't mean that Fetterman isn't the better candidate. it doesn't mean that Oz isn't full of crap. Sometimes the people who "win" debates are often the biggest BSers. But they DO win the debates. This is why I said Trump won the first debate in 2020. He controlled the narrative and put Biden on defense. People thought he was a belligerent bully, and they're not wrong, but, that's a good debate tactic. Look, I've supported my fair share of major debate losers. Remember Yang's first debate? Disaster. What about that last one between Biden and Bernie in 2020? Awful. Biden wrecked Bernie. And likewise, Oz wrecked Fetterman. 

Again, this isn't to say Fetterman won't be a good senator. To be honest, I would vote for a vegetable before I vote for a republican. If I choose not to support a democrat, let it be known I choose either to vote third party or not at all. Fetterman is correct on more of the issues, and that's good enough for me. I'm a never republican guy. They'd literally need to offer UBI, and even then I'd be leery because I'd wonder if I'm getting some Charles Murray style deal with the devil. I voted Fetterman, if I had to make the same choice today, I'd still vote Fetterman, the only time I'd say I would regret voting Fetterman was in the primary given options like Malcolm Kenyatta and Alexandria Khalil, and even then, Im pretty sure I had my vote in by the time the stroke was announced, so I can't regret that either. But all Fetterman really needs to do is vote the right way and write decent legislation, and the latter he could have the help of dozens of aides if he wanted it. So I'm not concerned about his job performance. But, I would understand why others would be.

The thing is, though, a lot of these lefties are going far above and beyond saying "yeah I'd vote for Fetterman even if he was a disabled mess". They are pulling out the old SJW cards screaming "ableism" and going on about how this is a "rorschach test" "to see how comfortable voters are with someone with a disability." Uh...guys. STOP. Nothing is gonna piss off independents faster than you guys calling them ableist or assuming that they're uncomfortable with disabled people. if someone is disabled, then that means their ability to do the job rightly comes into question. Where people end up settling on that question is a matter of one's personal ethics, but let's not demonize people for actually questioning Fetterman's ability to do the job. I can tell you, as someone who has been a literal swing voter in past elections, that if you walked into this mess not leaning a certain way, coming away from that debate, I struggle to see why anyone would choose Fetterman. Those who choose him are people whose minds were made up before the debate, and who truly support him for his positions on issues. Nothing wrong with this, mind you, I AM one of those people, BUT, let's not act like independents will see things the same way. Fetterman was only 1.3% ahead when the debate happened. And dropping. And you know what? All we need is a 2 point shift to put this race in Oz territory. And given we're less than 2 weeks before election day....yeah, no, that isn't a lot of time for the effect of this debate to wear off. So yeah, we are screwed, we should be full on in panic mode, and we should expect that losing the senate is now a possibility. Fetterman and Walker are the 49th and 50th senate votes for the democrats. If we dont win both of those races, we need to pick up a candidate in Nevada, North Carolina, or Ohio, and those states...are leaning to the right. So this doesn't look good. Let's not bury our heads in the sand about it. It'll just be more painful later.

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