Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Reaction to the Fetterman vs Oz debate

 So, I watched the Fetterman vs Oz debate earlier tonight, and uh...we're screwed. Calling it now, we just lost the senate. As we know, PA and GA are the two most important races in the battle for the senate right now, with the democrats needing to win both of them to keep a 50-50 lead. And Fetterman just blew it. I know the dude is recovering from a stroke, but uh, the guy couldn't even put together a coherent sentence half the time. Especially early on. Some of his answers seemed scripted and completely unrelated to the questions at hand. He would be asked about one thing and then go off on some negative attack on Dr. Oz, which proved ineffective tonight. Meanwhile, Oz was able to competently hammer at Fetterman and spin things in his favor. Sure, most of his points were BS, but this is the TV guy who has made a living selling snake oil to the masses, so he's got this.We gotta understand, debates aren't always won just by being right. You actually have to competently present your side's ideas properly. And Fetterman failed to do that. HARD. People were already questioning his ability to serve, and this debate did not inspire confidence at all. If I were some relatively tuned out independent voter trying to figure out who to vote for and my answer wasn't predetermined, I'd be going Oz right now. And I imagine most such independents will swing Oz now. And given the polling margins are slimming down day by day (remember yesterday's 2.2% lead? It's 1.3 now), this does not inspire confidence. We absolutely NEED this seat to keep the senate, and Fetterman just messed up. For the record, I'm not blaming the guy, he had a stroke, it could happen to any of us, and it happened at the worst time possible. But the fact is, that stroke DID screw up his head, and if he can't communicate properly on stage, he can't win a debate. Oz destroyed him.

Again, calling it now, PA senate seat goes republican. Sure, Fetterman is still ahead on paper, but polls are a lagging indicator and I figure by the time I do my final senate predictions in early November, it will be red, and I will be estimating a 51-49 victory for the republicans. It's a shame, I considered Fetterman to be the model for how democrats SHOULD run senate campaigns up to now. The dude is progressive, he supports Bernie style politics and has a working class ethos and a "take no crap" attitude that should make him the perfect candidate for PA...if he were on top of his game. He isn't. The dude is incoherent, the republicans are relentlessly attacking him, and it's working. He's falling apart. I really wonder how much different this race would be if he didn't have that stroke. Some attacks on him would still be relevant, like him "letting murderers out of jail" and "living off of his parents until 49", but I'd imagine he'd be able to mount a decent defense of his views. I know I would have, if I were on top of my game. Here, he just couldn't. Don't get me wrong, I still think he would be a good senator, the important thing is how he votes, and what legislation he can craft, and he's correct on the positions most of the time, but on presentation, his campaign has fallen way short of what I hoped it would be. He started out so strong back in like June. He was hammering Oz relentlessly and making him look terrible. But now things are going the other way.The only saving grace is that PA has allowed early voting to take place, and those lean democratic. Still, given the votes that have yet to be cast, I'm pretty sure most of them are going republican for this specific race.

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