So, a lot of liberals are freaking out about this new Harris X poll regarding the 2022 election. And I kind of am too. If you want a summary, here it is, if you want more details, you can read the whole report here. Long story short: dear God this is terrible. I mean, to sum things up, this looks REALLY BAD for democrats.
The top issue for the country is inflation. I ain't really surprised, inflation is terrible. But the problem is, they're blaming democrats, despite it being a world wide issue as a result of covid lockdowns and supply shortages and now Ukraine. But the conservatives memed their way to blaming it on Biden and the democrats, so Biden and the democrats are being blamed.
At the same time, they're also pissed at Biden and fear we'll be going into recession soon. We might, because the federal reserve thinks the way to solve the issue is with raising interest rates to destroy jobs and restore balance in the market to employers. Never mind that the problem with inflation isn't one of worker bargaining power mostly, but corporate greed and supply shortages. Also, Biden isn't giving the Fed marching orders, they're just out looking for the corporations so that's why this is happening. And you know people are still blaming Biden $1400 checks. *sigh*, ya know, even though i criticized Biden for not using this as an opportunity for a UBI trial, I'm kind of glad he WAS so moderate. Imagine the public backlash against UBI if it happened to be tried while this was going on. The issue would be DOA. Heck, it already is somewhat. Even yang is distancing himself from it and a lot of the broservatives who kinda liked it like Joe Rogan are also backing off from it. I still believe in the idea, and I recognize that this issue is complicated and the result of the complexity of restarting the worldwide economy after a global pandemic, but yeah. Can I blame the public too much? Not necessary, they're frustrated. But...they're also stupid, don't understand policy, and are blaming the wrong people to some extent.
The second issue that voters care about is crime. This one surprises me. Because I would've thought #2 would be abortion, but no, abortion is down to freaking #4. Which is bad, as all the top 3 issues are republican territory (#3 is immigration). People think crime is going up. And I guess it is. Crime went down with covid, and it went up with them removing lockdowns. Kind of stupid for them to blame democrats for the crime rate rising when the GOP were the ones so gung ho over lockdowns. You remove lockdowns, you get crime. Plain and simple. I know Yang got burned by this too in 2021 in NYC. He started strong when the race was about the economy but once it shifted to crime he was DOA. And while he tried to be tougher on crime than the progressives the progressives screamed at him while more normie centrist voters gravitated toward Adams. Now, I'm not going to say crime ISN'T an issue, but it's an issue that's exaggerated, and it kind of goes into this weird authoritarian "law and order" mindset a lot of conservatives have. It's the same mentality that got Nixon elected, and Reagan, and Trump. It's the same mindset Rammstein's "Angst" was about. "Everyone fears the boogeyman/black man". And I know listening to conservative circles sometimes they go nuts over this, screaming about the homelessness epidemic in blue cities and how bad the crime is and blah blah blah. I don't deny there is a crime problem. I mean, my family's freaking car got shot up earlier this year in some shoot out on my street. It happens. But am I blaming the democrats? No. Is the public? Yes.
Heck, the public seems to be blaming the problem on wokeism. Which I find very frustrating. I totally get the whole concept of BLM and defund the police, but let's face it, it was a tactical failure for the left to embrace that stuff. I know the woke people screamed their way and shamed their way into the mainstream claiming if you weren't on board with this stuff that you're racist, but now the dems are losing on the issue of crime. Again, based on my lurking of conservative circles it seems to be due to this mentality that the police are afraid to do their job. And the idea of defunding the police, while well meaning ain't gonna play well when there's a crime wave. And even worse some wanted to abolish the police.
Honestly, this is why im so hard on wokeism sometimes. I could have told you some of this was coming. The left goes too far, gets too militant and obnoxious on social issues, and then they alienate the public. It literally turns moderates into right wingers. And even I have to admit that BLM and the like went too far. Did they have a point with George Floyd? Sure, absolutely. But then they start screaming over every police shooting ever no matter how justified and scream you're a racist if you dont sympathize with the dude shot. I generally speaking give cops the benefit of the doubt unless they screw up badly honestly. They're people too, they wanna get home safe, I can't blame them for getting trigger happy when some crazed person runs at them with a knife, or potentially has a gun and they shoot when he moves his hands the wrong way. Ya know? Let the police do their jobs. Do we need to teach cops more sociology and racial sensitivity training? Sure. Do we need to run around screaming "ACAB" and crap? Oh god no, not unless you wanna lose elections. Drop the woke leftist crap, seriously.
Immigration, I'm not sure why it's #3. I guess conservatives gonna be conservative. Freaking screaming because Fox Noise hypes up another immigrant caravan or something causing all the MAGA people to foam at the mouth or something.
Abortion is #4. NUMBER FOUR. WHY?! It was literally my own top issue given the inflation mess is largely out of Biden's control and I don't really believe crime and immigration are major issues to deal with right now. But is dem enthusiasm that low? Why is the GOP dominating the narrative here screaming about immigration and crime?! I hate this country sometimes. Really, it seems like the net impact is only SLIGHTLY in democratic favor here.
Biden's marijuana pardons seemed positive but aren't helping him electorally. Student loans are more controversial, with majorities supporting it but not liking he went around congress's back. Ugh. WHY?! Just take the win, country. Take the win. Why should Joe Manchin be the kingmaker here? Anyway, even though the measure is popular doing it without congress is costing Biden support. Again, I find this frustrating, as a leftie who believes that if congress can't cooperate, the dems should push executive orders.
I get that the country has issues, but I really don't get where peoples' heads are at here. Inflation, I can bite the bullet on that one. It's a major issue, voters want solutions, there are no easy solutions and the fed is likely to induce a recession trying to force it under control.
Crime and immigration just...why?
Abortion....given how unpopular the SCOTUS thing was when it dropped I don't know why the dems protecting abortion is more popular.
And on student loan forgiveness, again, just take the W people. You like the policy, why be mad simply because Biden used his executive authority to bypass congress?
I swear I feel like Moses dealing with the Israelites right now. No wonder the dude hit the rock with the stick and slammed the commandments down. It's like, wtf is wrong with you people? I know this is a red year, and dems are demoralized in red years, but uh...Biden is actually doing things, then you get mad hes doing things, but you get mad if he doesnt do things. And then abortion isnt motivating you, but crime and immigration and inflation are motivating the right. And UGH.
Come on guys, even I voted dem this election cycle. And you guys know I'm no fan of the dems. I see at least some policy i like, I reward that. But here's the deal, guys. If the public doesn't reward that, they won't do this any more. I can see it now, the dems will move hard center if they lose to a red wave here and claim that going left didn't help them. They will never listen to us again. Oh you want more student debt forgiveness, too bad, look what happened last time. You want UBI? UBI will cause inflation, are you crazy? Dont you remember the early 2020s? Don't let the right set the narrative. This isn't 2016. We wont be able to claim that the dems alienated the voters this time. They at least offered some symbolic scraps, and right now the GOP is ACTUALLY WINNING the ideological battle. People are going to the right...because they LIKE the right. THEY ACTUALLY LIKE THE RIGHT. WE ARE LOSING. NOT JUST ELECTORALLY, BUT IDEOLOGICALLY. I AM TYPING IN CAPS BECAUSE I WANT THAT TO SINK IN FOR YOU PEOPLE.
I'm willing to throw an election to protect my ideological brand. It's why I refused to support Hillary. It's why I refused to support Biden originally in 2020. I knew that even though the dems are more competent leaders than the GOP, if they can't deliver the goods and gain popularity in doing so, the left WILL LOSE TO THE RIGHT again. Not just electorally, but ideologically. The wrong guy getting elected in the wrong year can have devastating consequences for the entire of the country. If Carter never won in 1976, there would be no Reagan in 1980. And Hillary won in 2016, we'd be looking at 12 years of uninterrupted dem leadership that accomplished nothing. And now that Biden got in just in time to relive the carter years, we're looking at an apocalyptic red wave, as everything wrong with the country post COVID is blamed on him. It sucks, but that's what it is. If the party in power doesnt maintain their popularity, they lose to the other side. PERIOD. And if they screw up badly, it could lead to a party realignment. Right now, that party realignment looks like it's going REALLY BAD for the left. We might end up with another whole generation of extreme right wing politicians and centrist dems with their heads down being forced to bargain in their overton window. This is what I've been fearing all along. This is what I've been trying to avoid all along. But the dems are losing the arguments for the country right now. Their ineptitude in recent years has been astounding and even though Biden is slowly learning, if he isnt rewarded for this learning, the country will shift back the other way and the dems will just keep running back to the right. It sickens me it's come to this.
Speaking of 2024, there were numbers there too. Lots of people don't like Biden. He's too old and people question his mental fitness. Donald Trump is the presumed nominee for the republicans, but if he doesn't run, it's DeSantis. On the dem side, it's either Biden or Harris. With people choosing *barfs* Hillary Clinton before they give someone like Bernie or AOC mind. Again, the left is losing the culture war here. I dont blame them because the dems at this point are an obnoxiously centrist party that hates progressives, but even when they run to the center they get wrecked by the right anyway. I swear the right just knows how to do politics better than the dems do. It's a shame.All that triangulation seems to help but then the dems lose due to being unpopular and not doing anything. They're literally darned if they and darned if they don't.
And yes, I know I'm being kind of grim with my own ideology even, but again, I'm an honest person. Like, I am willing to recognize my ideas are unpopular right now and aren't helping the dems at all. I do believe that in 2016 things couldve gone differently. Even in 2020 they could've. But as of now, with inflation, and people being more obsessed with crime and immigration than ANYTHING that motivates the left at all, the dems are losing not just on the elections, but the issues. Before 2022, the left wing policies enjoyed LOTS of popularity, and it seemed like people just disliked the people representing them. Because let's face it, centrism inspires no one. But right now things are looking like the late 70s or 80s again, with the dems just losing on every issue and a blowout looking imminent. What is the damage in 2024 for the dems?
Well, for Trump vs Biden, Trump is +2 in this poll. Which is...bad. You need the dems to be +3 in the electoral college for a dem to have a 50-50 shot at the EC due to how the math works. So Biden is 5 points short of where he needs to be. If you replace Biden with Harris, Trump wins by 11. EGADS. Look, Im not a Harris stan either, but honestly? She's no worse than Biden. Idk why people hate her so much. Is it really because shes black and a woman? Is it because she asserts herself when speaking? I mean on policy she's far from the worst dem. She's actually significantly left of Biden in some ways, like healthcare. Anyway, If you replace Harris with DeSantis, you're back to Harris +2, which isn't bad, but still JUST short of what's needed to win. Of course there are a lot of undecideds, but those numbers do not inspire confidence at all.
The democrats are in trouble. A lot of this is through no fault of their own. They just happened to win in the worst year possible. But, support for republican ideas is surging, and all of the dems' good will gestures to left wing voters seem to be falling on deaf ears, only moving the needle a few points one way or another, with some costing support. That's bad. This is bad. Not only are the democrats failing here, THE LEFT is failing here. It's not just the candidates that lack popularity. It's what they're selling too. People literally are buying into the right's agenda right now. THEY ARE WINNING. NOT JUST ELECTORALLY, BUT ON THE ISSUES.
That said, get out and vote. And please vote blue this time. This isn't about the candidates and bailing out a corrupt party that isn't listening to us any more. This is about preserving the left's politics and policies going forward. If the left loses HERE, it will shift the country to the right. It will represent a shift in public opinion from left wing politics, giving the right a cultural victory and making the left just push more centrism in the future because "going left didn't work". You will literally strengthen the centrist factions of the democratic party going forward if you do not vote for them this year. I am perfectly willing to let the dems fail when that failure is of their own ineptitude and it could mean a future election with candidates that are more amenable to my policies. But that isn't the problem here. The polls are showing that the left is in the toilet not just on their candidates, but ideas and ideology. THATS BAD. So please vote democrat this time. It makes strategic sense. Even for me. This isn't the year to punish the dems for not doing enough.
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