Election Update 4/5/24

 I wasn't gonna do an election update, for another week, but I decided what the heck, enough has changed in the past 2 weeks where I feel like my current one is a bit dated. 

2 way- Trump +1.1%

5 way- Trump +2.3%

There's been a decent amount of movement in the past few weeks. Maybe we're finally getting that state of the union bump people were talking about a few weeks ago. Things also improved markedly for Biden on the state level.

State	Margin	Z Score	% D Win	% R Win	EV if D Wins	EV if R wins
New York	Biden +12.0%	-3.00	99.9%	0.1%	150	416
Washington	Biden +10.0%	-2.50	99.4%	0.6%	162	388
Illinois	Biden +9.0%	-2.25	98.8%	1.2%	181	376
New Hampshire	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	185	357
New Mexico	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	190	353
Colorado	Biden +6.5%	-1.63	94.8%	5.2%	200	348
Virginia	Biden +4.3%	-1.08	86.0%	14.0%	213	338
Minnesota	Biden +3.0%	-0.75	77.3%	22.7%	223	325
Maine	Biden +2.0%	-0.50	69.9%	30.1%	225	315
NE2 (estimated)	Biden +0.9%	-0.23	59.1%	40.9%	226	313
Pennsylvania	Biden +0.1%	-0.03	51.2%	48.8%	245	312
Wisconsin	Trump +0.6%	+0.15	44.0%	56.0%	255	293
Michigan	Trump +2.8%	+0.70	24.2%	75.8%	270	283
Nevada	Trump +3.2%	+0.80	21.2%	78.8%	276	268
Georgia	Trump +3.8%	+0.95	17.1%	82.9%	292	262
Arizona	Trump +4.5%	+1.13	12.9%	87.1%	303	246
North Carolina	Trump +4.6%	+1.15	12.5%	87.5%	319	235
Florida	Trump +8.0%	+2.00	2.3%	97.7%	349	219
Texas	Trump +8.8%	+2.20	1.4%	98.6%	389	189
Ohio	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	406	149
Iowa	Trump +11.5%	+2.88	0.2%	99.8%	412	132
Alaska	Trump +12.0%	+3.00	0.1%	99.9%	415	126

Anyway, I added Illinois, which I didn't know was barely out of swing state territory. It does concern me how these heavy hitting D states are narrowing so much. Normally these states are +20-30 for democrats. Could be flawed polling, but since I'm doing up to +12 I decided to include it.

As for the big differences, the big swing states everyone is looking at are pulling left. Pennsylvania is going back into just barely in D territory. Wisconsin is under a point now. Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina all got a point less red. And that matters, because now Biden is up to a 24.2% chance of winning, and Trump is down to a 75.8% chance. Still 3:1 odds in Trump's favor, but it's looking better for Biden every week and now we're back to a 245-293 Trump win. Still not AMAZING for Biden, but it's progress. If things keep shifting this way, Biden might have a chance.

As for the 5 way with the third parties, eh, add two points for Trump and you'll approximate the results, I'm not gonna do the chart on that one. Those are time consuming. I will say Biden's odds actually get better as both PA and MI are at 2.2%, which translates to a 0.55 Z score, which actually gives Biden a 29.1% chance, and Trump a 70.9% chance, but on the whole most states are two points more red, with WI and MI being anomalies there. I prefer to go by the 2 way as there's more data.

And yeah, that's where we're at. Still not a GREAT place to be, but it's the best news I've had in literally months on the electoral front so I felt like sharing it.