So it's still gonna be another week or two before I do another full election update. Not enough change has happened to justify one. But, someone asked me if I ran my numbers again, and I did do a very quick cursory glance for their sake.
Basically, the tipping point is still Michigan. It's at 3.3%, which gives it a 0.83 Z score given my methodology, which gives Biden a 20.3% chance of winning it, and Trump a 79.7% chance. So things have gotten slightly worse for Biden, but much of the shifts in the past 2 weeks are just normal fluctuations and we haven't seen anything ground breaking that requires a full write up. I guess Nevada is at 3.2% now, giving it a 0.80 Z score, but that only gives Biden a 21.2% chance of winning the state. And it's only 6 electoral votes, so assuming he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and NE2, that's 255. He needs the 15 from Michigan exactly to win, and Nevada doesn't really tip the scales unless Arizona follows. Arizona is at 4.5% which means 1.13 Z score, which means 12.9% chance of Biden flipping it. Since my predictions' overall probabilities are determined by the the Z score of the state that flips it, as I assume the "wave" model of elections are normally more accurate than treating them all as independent trials, this does not influence the results at all.
All in all, I would say prospects have slightly gotten worse for Biden over the past 2 weeks, although we're talking like 0.5% overall in the polling averages, and it varies state to state. I'm only mentioning it because a friend asked me for an update so I decided to at least write this blurb.
A more detailed analysis will come in another week or two. Generally when I feel like we've gotten enough polls to justify updating things. We're just not there yet. My last prediction is still mostly valid, although I would say the movement since has been in Trump's direction slightly. Biden was at a 24% chance and now he's at 20%. Given he's been averaging around maybe 17% this is kind of a regression to the mean.
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