Election Update 11/5/24: my final, FINAL predictions

 Okay, so, I discussed the meat and potatoes of this in other articles, and my predictions arent that much different than last night, but I wanted a nice and easy place to access all of my final predictions that isn't messy. So, this is gonna be abridged, if you want to read my rationale in detail, check out yesterday's article.

Presidential (official)

My model officially has Donald Trump winning with 251-287 and a 54% chance of winning. I feel obligated to provide the full raw results, after what happened in 2020 with my actual prediction being so far off. 

Presidential (unofficial/personal)

However, I think Harris is going to win, 276-262. There are a lot of reasons I think this. I think the polls are probably underestimating Harris. I think there's a lot of herding and right wing poll bombing going on. I think the selzer poll indicates that the WWC vote is likely trending more blue in the rust belt. I think that the MSG rally pissed off the latino population in eastern PA, and living in one such city that is majority latino, the vibes here are very anti Trump. So I don't think he's winning PA. I also suspect NV will flip based on its tossup nature, it going blue in 2016 and 2020, and other predictions I've seen.

Senate

I think the senate is very easily going into the hands of the GOP, with them winning 48-52 with a 86% chance of them taking it. I'm letting my senate predictions stand as they are. No adjustments.

House

I think that the house is a tossup, but my official prediction is a 218-217 democratic lead with them having a 57% chance of taking it. However, my house forecast is experimental, so treat it as 50-50. It should be noted margins are 1/5/15 as I'm reusing this from a prediction contest.

Governors

Not much worth noting. I think Josh Stein will stomp Mark Robinson in NC, and in NH I think that the republican will win, probably by a margin of 1.5-2. It should be noted the yapms map is 1/5/15 as I am reusing this from a prediction contest.

Conclusion

So, in short:

Model prediction- 257-281 Trump, 54% chance

Personal prediction- 276-262 Harris

Senate prediction- 48-52 Republican, 86% chance

House- 218-217 Democrat, 57% chance

Governors- Stein wins NC, Ayotte wins NH, see map for details

What if I used 538 for my averages?

 So....I'm kind of happy with how RCP has presented their data, as it seems like they ARE kinda manipulating and massaging averages to make them more right wing. Not to mention the right wing pollsters just doing it in general. So I figured, what if I used 538? Well, here's the alternative at 538.

Here, I would have 270-268 Harris with a 52% chance of victory. Better, i guess. And the non swing states are 1-2 points bluer like I'd expect. 

To be fair it doesn't make a huge difference and given my informal prediction is D+1 on the RCP data, that does a decent job correcting for whatever nonsense they're doing to bring it in line with 538's data, but yeah. Honestly, I do think 270-268 or 276-262 are the most reasonable outcomes. And I don't think texas is up by 9 suddenly. And minnesota is only up by 4 for the dems. 

Let's compare to my own prediction:

Yeah, my own forecast adjusted from RCP's data is basically within a very tight MOE with 538's. It doesnt make a huge difference but it is the difference between a harris win and a trump win. Keep in mind the raw RCP data is 251-287 with NH only up by 3, MN by 4, and VA by 5. Meanwhile Texas and Ohio are suddenly R+9. It's crazy. R+7, that's fair, R+9? Nah, no reason for such a sudden jump. I feel like the data is being manipulated there.

Well, we'll see tomorrow what reality actually is.....

So...about RCP cleaning up their averages

 So....I've been using the 11/4 election update for my final forecast, and I've had to edit it extensively twice. The first time was due to new polls coming in, and me having to change the averages. But then some of it was also RCP cleaning their averages. They axed a lot of old polls and now the non swing states are often up to 2 points redder than they were this afternoon. We're talking MN, VA, TX, OH, stuff like that. Not a huge deal but it is a shift right.

Honestly, I dont think this is organic. Now, part of it may not be RCP's fault. The thing is...republicans ARE poll bombing the averages last minute. For some reason these trumpers seem to wanna treat polling as an information war to made their side look ahead to give the impression things are going more in their favor than they are. In 2020, i tried to correct for this, recognizing it, only for my forecast to be wrong. This time, i presented the data as is, but I did point out my actual forecast, my opinion, is D+1. And I stand by that. 257-281 Trump is what the data says, but I think 276-262 Harris is what we'll get. PA is probably swinging left, I can't see Trump winning here if my crappy city is basically the last campaign stop. People HATE trump here. As I said, people were booing his motorcade when he burned rubber up my street going to the airport. Ya know? So...yeah. And nevada, that's the one state that swung LEFT significantly today that I felt was on the edge to begin with, so yeah. 

But yeah back to the topic at hand. Trumpers....are sadly treating polling as an information war. They're trying to push right wing polls to cheerlead for their side, and it's quite clear the same few polling industries, looking at you, trafalgar, insideradvantage, TIPP, and atlas intel, are constantly bombing the averages. Some of them have been pushing new polls in the same states every day this week, and it seems like their entire goal in the past few days has been to shift the entire forecast to the right. 

And it's just so obvious. Like....okay, we had that D+3 poll out of Iowa. Well, suddenly these jokers are doing polls in iowa to push up the average in trump's direction. It really does seem like they're not treating polling as the honorable industry that it should be, finding the truth, and instead they're just using it to push their propaganda. Probably so trump can turn around and point to polls being off in his favor so he can scream it was rigged.

It's a joke. It's pissing the academic in me off. I mean, polling is an academic thing for me. I look at pollsters, i trust them at their word, and if they abuse that trust for political gain, well, it's ruining the craft. It really is. And then there's the fricking herding. It's like no one takes this seriously any more. They're all falling off a cliff and posting ridiculous and fake results and it's a joke. They're turning the industry into a joke. 

Honestly, this happened last time too, but as it turned out, those right wing pollsters were most accurate, so i ended up regretting messing with my forecast last time and promising to follow it this time.

This time, I'm presenting the data as is, but I'm also giving my own informal opinion prediction. Because error exists, and I dont think the actual data is reliable. Hence why I'm going 276-262 Harris instead of 251-287 trump. I'm not gonna jump the shark going like 319-219 Harris. I actually have no case to make for the sun belt going blue. But rust belt? Yeah i think it's gonna go blue. And I think the non swing states are more off in the republican direction too. 

Honestly, I expect the results to be more democratic than the data shows. How much? idk, but I'm going with D+1 officially. We could see up to D+4 though IMO. If we end up with D+8 or god forbid D+10 a la the selzer poll, then the polling industry needs to take a hard look at themselves, stop the bull####, and actually come back around and do things PROPERLY. None of this herding crap, and I hope to god the above outlets I called out just go out of fricking business and get stricken from the averages. Because this is fricking BS. It's ridiculous. I'm just gonna say it.

We'll see what reality is tomorrow. But yeah. I hope Trump gets his butt kicked, and I hope he doesn't come back. Let's close this dark chapter of american history. I'm ready to be done with this BS. 

Yeah, I really feel confident saying Trump ain't gonna win PA

 So, this may come as a surprise, but I'm literally in ground zero for the end of both campaigns. Both campaigns visited my city today, and while I didn't go to either one, I had an interesting event happen about an hour ago.

So, when I was finishing up my election prediction, my parents started talking about a bunch of cop cars outside. Now, I live in the ghetto, so it's not really surprising to see cop cars outside. So I didn't think anything of it, but what was weird was where they were. It was like they were blocking off the street. Okay, weird, right?

So, I finish my prediction, and when I'm on my way downstairs, i think, wait, trump is in town today, maybe those cop cars are for his motorcade? Of course, before I could finish the thought and get downstairs, my parents start going on about how trump just drove by the house. I didn't see him, we dont have any pictures. So you'll have to take my word for it, but uh yeah. Well, neighbor has a blurry mess of a pic. 

Anyway, what's more interesting about this is the reaction he got. Apparently, according to my parents and neighbors, people were booing him and throwing trash at the motorcade as he drove by. And it seems like no one on my block likes trump. Everyone is for harris. I mean, it's inner city, so it's expected, but why is this important?

I live in a majority latino city. And most latinos here are...puerto ricans. Hence why there's so much focus on my city today. Everyone is making their final pitches here to try to win over the latino vote who trump alienated with MSG last week. ANd yeah, the energy here is...well, it's not positive for trump. His rally didn't fill the arena he was at. You know how he doesnt have that big of a crowd size, and even worse, the residents in my city hate the guy and greet him with hostility. Yeah. So....

Trump is 0.3% ahead in the polls? yeah. I don't care. If it really comes down to PA, and even more so it comes down to MY CITY in PA, I'm just gonna call it for Harris. Harris was seen knocking on doors and getting positive reception from voters, while trump couldn't even drive up the street without getting booed by everyone he drove by. So yeah, confidently calling PA for Harris. 276-262, Harris wins, gg, try not being a racist piece of trash next time (see what I did there?). 

Election update 11/4/24 (SEMI FINAL)

 So, we've made it. Election day is tomorrow. So I'm gonna START making my final prediction. Now, in other years, I would use the old fashion charts where I would fill everything in myself and do all the calculations, and THAT would take me hours. But as we know, I now have excel charts and I use them for my predictions. With that said, I will post charts now, but I may edit and update them tonight and tomorrow as needed to reflect the final count. 

Tomorrow I may either just update this article or post final charts to make my predictions finalized. I really do like to wait until last minute to get ALL of my predictions in. 

Presidential

Okay, so, I've put a lot of thought into how I'm going to do this, and I decided I'm going to do TWO predictions. My formal prediction is going to be my model's prediction, based on polling. But then I'm gonna make a second, informal prediction because well, polling is crap this year, and let's face it, error happens either way anyway. 

 

So, formal prediction: my model has Donald Trump winning 257-281 with a 54% chance of victory. It's EXTREMELY narrow, and it is basically tied. PA is the deciding state, and it's a true tossup, with us having no clue what's gonna happen there. Still, the polling gives Trump a slight edge there. 

Now, I'm going to be honest, at a 54% chance, with Harris still having a 46% chance, this race is a tossup. Anything can happen. We can have movement up to 8 points in either direction and it can still be accurate. If Trump overperforms by 1 point, he wins Wisconsin and Michigan. He overperforms by 4 and he gets New Hampshire and possibly Minnesota. He overperforms by 8 and he can theoretically get Oregon, Virginia, and New Mexico. I don't think he will overperform more than that, that's outside of my 95% confidence interval, but it can theoretically happen...about 2.5% of the time. 

In the other direction, one point and Harris wins Pennsylvania and Nevada, giving us a 276-262 win. 4 points and she wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. 8 and she can take Iowa, Kansas, Maine CD2, and Florida (Ohio and Texas WERE within this range, but RCP changes the averages last minute so now they're out of the margin of error). I don't think she will outperform that. By the way. That selzer poll? The way people were framing it, it had her overperforming by 10. That's why that was so bonkers. 

Informal prediction

With all of that said, what about my informal prediction?

Well, here's the thing. I think that the energy is on Harris's side. I think that the early indicators trending toward a Harris overperformance. The selzer poll seems to indicate that she will overperform in the rust belt, although I highly doubt it's by the truly bonkers amount predicted. I think that those comedian's comments about puerto ricans and other races ended up tanking trump's chances in PA, given the large latino vote here. I think that polling this year has significant issues with herding, and while I feel obligated to stick to my model for my official predictions, unofficially? I highly suspect that they're herding toward 50-50, where we're getting massive discrepancies in the swing state and popular vote polling (harris should be about 2-3 above the tipping point state). I also suspect that they overtuned their models to overrepresent trump voters, trying to avoid making the same mistakes as 2020. 

In addition, the campaigns' internal polling seems to indicate a pro harris direction. Trump is already crying it's rigged in PA, and as some have pointed out, you don't do that if you're winning. I also heard that Trump is possibly struggling in NC, which is why he's trying to shore up down there last minute rather than spending ALL of his time in PA. You don't do that unless you're afraid of losing it. On the flip side, I've heard rumors out of the harris campaign that they're feeling confident and their polling has her winning over voters by double digit margins last minute. The reason? Again, that fricking Madison Square Garden rally. That unforced error really seems to be the October surprise. Well, that and she finally improved her messaging somewhere to focus on improving peoples' lives rather than doing the Liz Cheney crap. 

So that said, how do I think the swing states are gonna go?

Michigan & Wisconsin- I think polling is persistently underestimating Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin. My model shows them within a point, but I think they're probably up more like 1.5-2 points. Maybe even more, but I'm not gonna push it. I am relatively conservative in my predictions in the sense that I'm not gonna get super ballsy about them. But I did notice that when I tried my anti herding measures last week MI and WI should've been a good point left of where they were, and the selzer poll really kinda sealed it for me. 

Arizona & Georgia- On the flip side, I think polling is about right on Arizona and Georgia. I think that they're solidly lean republican, and probably going R by a margin of 2-3. Maybe even more. The polling seems to range from a dead heat to being up by a lot. The point is, harris isn't favored down here at all, and I would give these to Trump.

North Carolina- I would say this one is like Georgia in a sense, but a little further left. I think the R+1-2 is accurate. I think that it's going further left than it otherwise would because of the Mark Robinson thing. I think he's really tanking trump down there, and he's the reason it's not up for Trump by 3-4. But still, I'm not gonna get overly confident. I think it will still go lean R, but I'm not sure.

Pennsylvania- I think that given its combination of rust belt and northeast nature, it's gonna go Harris. On the west side of the state you got the more rust belt midwestern vibes where the selzer poll predicts an overperformance. On the east side, you got a lot of latinos and puerto ricans who are PISSED over the MSG thing. And it is making up their minds, and they are trending toward Harris. So my opinion? It's gonna go to Harris. Idk the margin, I'd be inclined to say maybe by 1, but idk, it could be anywhere from 0.1 to 2. 

Nevada- This is the one I'm having the hardest time predicting. It's not a rust belt state so it doesnt get a power boost for harris. And while the democrats won it in 2016 and 2020....it does seem like it's not going super smoothly for harris. Nevada has been all over the place. Sometimes it polls like a D leaning state, other times an R leaning one. For most of this election cycle, it's been performing closer to an R leaning state I'd say, polling most similarly to NC, AZ, and GA, so I'd be inclined to put it in that category as a tilt R.

EDIT: Nevada shifted further toward the democrats, I'm now shifting my prediction to tilt D. This shifts my informal prediction from 270-268 Harris to 276-262 Harris. 

As such, I'm going to say this, even though my model has Trump winning, informally, I think Harris is gonna win 276-262. 

Here's the map for that. 

So yeah. This is effectively D+1 relative to my formal prediction. I don't wanna overdo it and get overconfident, although I do think that Harris can overperform even this. She overperform by 2, 3, or even 4 in my estimation. This could flip North Carolina, and even Arizona, and Georgia.

But I don't see it winning Iowa or anything like that, unless the polling is so massively off Ann Selzer was somehow right about everything, and I ain't basing my entire prediction off of a single poll. No. I do think Harris will overperform in the rust belt, but I'm gonna say by 1, and maybe more, but we don't know exactly. I don't think this will trend to the south though. 

If I'm wrong on any states here, I'm gonna guess Nevada or maybe North Carolina. Nevada since it's a tossup that can go either way IMO, and north carolina, because I've seen some subtle signs that it could overperform for democrats. Still, I'm pretty comfortable with guessing 276-262 at this time. I think that's the map we're most likely to see.

Simulations (Presidential)

Doing 100 simulations, I get:

35 Harris

61 Trump

4 Ties

So, originally, I had it 48-49 in favor of Trump, but then RCP cleaned up their averages, a lot of non swing states swung right by 1-2 points, and now Trump is winning most outcomes. Oh well, this simulator is experimental and not really indicative of my final forecast, it's just for fun.

Senate

 

 Yikes. So....the senate I'm far less rosy about the democrats' chances. I've basically been predicting 49-51R for most of this cycle, outside of when I was huffing 538's copium about Dan osborn winning nebraska. It can still happen, it's just a long shot. 

And now we are losing Brown's seat in Ohio. This keeps getting better and better (for the republicans).

So, formal prediction, republicans control the senate with 52 seats, and they have an 86% chance of pulling this off. Yeah. Wish I could be more optimistic there, but we're losing WV due to Manchin retiring, we're losing Tester's seat. And now we might lose Brown's. To be fair, that's still 50-50, but the energy has been going that way for a while. 

If we overperform slightly we could keep brown's seat, but the energy has been going toward brown for a while now, and I'm not about to go against my own model on that one. It can happen, but I'm going to say I agree with my model, as that is what the evidence is telling me. I do think we stand a solid chance of defending the rest of the rust belt seats though.

Still, if we weigh possibilities. D+1, nothing changes because Ohio swung so far right. D+4, we finally flip Ohio but fall short of flipping anything else. D+8 we flip Texas, Florida, Nebraska goes to Osborn, and we even keep Tester's seat in Montana. I don't see that as particularly likely. 

On the flip side. R+1 does nothing but solidify Moreno's win in Ohio. R+4 wipes out the rust belt trio and arizona. R+8 gives them Nevada. If I had to guess, I'm guessing the odds as are. I mean, it's fricking Ohio, man. It's a red states these days. Even if it is rust belt, it's very hostile toward democrats, and we're lucky brown is holding on the best we can. When he's out, we're never getting that seat back (this alignment). 

EDIT: And since more polls now have Ohio going R+1, I'm just gonna call it for Moreno/republicans here. No informal prediction.  

EDIT2: Now it's up to 1.7, yeah, I'm gonna give it to the GOP, it's lean R now.

Simulations (Senate)

Doing 100 simulations, I get:

Democrats-0

Republicans-98

Ties-2

I originally had a much more optimistic batch with only 86 republican outcomes, but then RCP cleaned up their averages, thing swung right, and now republicans won 98 outcomes.

House

So, I'm gonna say it up front, I'm gonna say that my house forecast is experimental. I have no idea what I'm doing with that. I built as much of a forecast as I could, but if I don't have polling data, I can't predict well. I did try to compensate for using the generic congressional vote and the cook PVI to estimate the lean of the districts and where things will go, but that's an imperfect measure.

So, here's my prediction:

So, i apologize for my house forecast being hard to read, the chart is really huge and hard to fit on my screen, but basically, I have the house in a dead heat, with the democrats winning 218-217, with a 57% chance of doing so. Much like the presidency, the house is a tossup, but I do have it slightly leaning toward democrats. Still, anything can happen, and you should take it with a grain of salt. Treat it like a 50-50 tossup.

Here's a map, although margins might be wonky as I made for a contest.

Simulations (house)

So 100 simulations for the house:

Democrats-49

Republicans- 51

The simulator seems to favor republicans slightly more, although in the final forecast with more republican seats up for grabs, it's kind of evening out. As I said, it's 50-50 just about. Treat it as a tossup.

Governors

So I havent been paying attention to the governors races, as most of them don't involve my state and hardly any are competitive. But for the aforementioned contest, I made this map.

The only two I really have anything to say anything about are the North Carolina and New Hampshire ones. New Hampshire seems to be lean R in their race. North Carolina is pretty much safe D (regardless of margins shown here, keep in mind i normally operate on a 1/4/8 system, this map is designed for a 1/5/15 system), because Mark Robinson is a perverted black Nazi and he's actually tanking NC so bad Trump can actually lose it.

Conclusion

With all of that said, that's my (semi) final forecast for 2024. I might touch up this stuff tomorrow if I get new data tonight or tomorrow, but suffice to say, the presidency is up for grabs. My model's official forecast is 257-281 Trump, but I'm informally going with 276-262 Harris since I think PA and NV will go blue.

The senate is a lot more in stone, with the GOP expected to win by 52 seats. 

The house is a tossup, but I'm tentatively giving it a 218-217 win for the democrats, but yeah, treat it as 50-50.

Governors, who cares, look at the map.

Revised maps for if the selzer poll is accurate

 yeah so I kinda screwed up the maps in my OG article on this, but I did create a revised map for if the selzer poll is actually accurate. For this, I set iowa to a baseline of R+7 like was expected for a competitive rust belt, and also applied a 10 point offset for Kansas. So this map should have no double dipping.

This is bascially it. D+10, we turn Texas, we turn Florida, we turn alaska, we even make missouri a tossup, it's insane. I struggle to believe this is actually accurate because this is beyond even my 95% confidence interval. 

Even half of this would be a relative electoral blowout for harris.

I do think it helps, as I said I could see a localized improvement in the rust belt of maybe 1-3 points, but i don't actually think the selzer poll is true since if it is then the republicans are gonna face an apocalyptic beating, and it would basically mean literally all polling is not only wrong, it's so wrong it's not even within a reasonable margin of error. This is like FDR vs Alf Landon 1936 territory or something.

So..I've been thinking...

Trump's internal polling sounds bad, given he's whining already about PA being rigged. Harris's polling sounds good, with rumors coming out that the last minute crowd is breaking for Harris by double digits (something like 55-44 IIRC...). The selzer poll predicts a harris landslide if applied to the rest of the rust belt. And even if it's off by its full margin of error (about 3.4 points, so almost 7 points both ways), it still has harris overperforming by like 3, which is enough to comfortably win PA, MI, and WI. I'm not sure if the poll translates to sun belt demographics well as southerners are just built differently politically, but quite frankly, we don't need the sun belt if we win the rust belt. It's nice to have, but it was always less essential. Still, if we see a harris +3 trend nationally, we should comfortably carry NV and NC, with AZ and GA being more tossups. 

And you see where I'm going with this? This is where things stand now. 

Trump is ahead, but nominally. I've been suspecting the WI and MI numbers are too conservative for Harris, and they should be 1-1.5 points further left or so. PA seems...accurate based on the polling, including the anti herding measures I've attempted to use to estimate where the states really are (basically averaging the most extreme polls in each direction). That puts PA at exactly 50-50 (R+3 and D+3), but WI and MI should be D+1.5 or so here. Still, if the internal polling is leaning toward Harris and say, the real Iowa number is like R+5 (assuming R+7 is the baseline for a rust belt tossup), we could be seeing a real situation of like D+1-3 or something. Idk. If I had to guess, and be bullish on Harris, im not gonna do it to insane levels. But I would do it on a level of D+1-3 to my current forecast. D+1 flips PA, D+2 flips NV and NC. D+3 flips AZ and GA. 

Let's look at that in practice:

D+1:

D+2:

 D+3:

 When i think about it, I guess the D+1 is the most likely scenario. Why? Because let's face it, these effects may be limited only to rust belt states. Sun belt seems to be a different beast and polling is far less hospitable there. if I do my anti herding measures there, if anything, I might expect them to be just as or more red than my official forecast. So...given D+2 would flip NV and NC, I would say that's out, even if the margins up north are more blue. And D+3...well, I'm not gonna dare say this flips AZ or GA.

But could this mean Harris wins the rust belt? Sure. It might even mean she wins it quite comfortably. We could see D+3+ in the rust belt and then the sun belt is what we expect. NV is always a wild card, I could see that maybe flipping blue too, although not with current polling pulling it so far right so fast. 

So yeah. If I had to guess, while my official forecast currently shows 251-287, I think the real result is likely to be 270-268. 

I will make my final determination on Monday/Tuesday, but yeah. I'm leaning toward actually predicting 270-268 in Harris's favor here. I am increasingly bullish on a harris overperformance in the rust belt based on last minute factors, and those last minute factors matter. I said it the whole time, the side that has the energy at the end of the campaign is the side that's gonna win. That's why i was freaking out over trump surging all of october, but in november, we're starting to see the rust belt shift back left, even as the sun belt continues to shift right. And the selzer poll could actually be correct. Keep in mind the herding situation is making polling less reliable than it is. Maybe that poll is that asch experiment person who tells it like it is while everyone else just herds to avoid being called out if wrong. You know? So...yeah. That's how I see it. I dont actually think Harris is gonna win iowa, although this poll does bring the polling average down there. It's possible. I'd actually kinda give it low key swing state status based on the fact that that poll changes iowa from a likely to solid R to lean R. 

So yeah. That's where I'm at.

I think in my final forecast, I'll do one prediction just based on polls, but much like my earlier 2008 and 2012 predictions, which actually ended up being far better than i remember and actually better than the polls only version of my forecasts, I think I will do a second forecast of what I think what will happen, and unless something changes my mind in the next 2-3 days, I'll probably go harder for Harris, while still remaining cautiously optimistic.

I mean, let's be real here. I don't see a D+10 relative to my forecast tsunami happening, heralding the age of blue texas and blue florida and 400+ electoral count victories. But something like D+1-3 in the rust belt seems very plausible. Could mean we hold the rust belt seats in the senate better as well.

We'll see. I do just wanna say, I think Harris is gonna win regardless of what the polls overall say, because polls can be wrong in either direction by several points, and the signs are pointing toward a Harris overperformance. My formal forecast has Trump at a 54% chance. That's a coin flip. Harris still has a 46% shot, and again, the signs seem to be indicating that a pro Harris outcome is likely here. 

So yeah. 270-268. Seems to be where I'm heading with this.

So much for the Selzer poll...

 So...election prediction communities have been hyping up this selzer & co poll coming out tonight out of iowa, treating it as a bellweather of sorts. Basically, since iowa has a lot of midwestern white working class voters, basically, as goes iowa, goes the rust belt. And for some reason, people were placing tons of weight on this poll. They've argued that R+7 is the baseline for a tossup in the rust belt, with R+8 or better looking good for Trump, and R+6 or worse looking good for harris. People have been speculating about it for days, and tonight, it came out.

It's....Harris +3. 

And everyone is just like...WHAT?! This poll is cooked. Because if it's accurate, then that means that Trump is screwed, and we're looking at a blue tsunami like we can't believe.

If we applied a D+10 filter to my predictions, this is what they would be.

That's...a blowout. A massive blowout. It would imply that the 95% threshold has been exceeded and my results are just wrong. Which means the entirety of polling is wrong.

I admit, the polls have been relatively cooked this year, with all of the herding and stuff, and I guess if you dont herd maybe your results look this nuts. Idk. But yeah. This...is probably not happening. 

Another poll came out of emerson in iowa today with R+9, which is bullish on trump, but that isn't necessarily any better. if we averaged the two together, which is what RCP's polling average now is, we get R+3. And yes, im switching back to RCP data, I was going 538 as they had more polls and i thought the LAST selzer poll at R+4 was a little sus, but yeah this is just so bonkers it's gonna break the average no matter what site I use. It's like Kansas now. 

Speaking of which, just a weird speculation, but I'd expect KS to be R+15, it's R+5. Maybe white working class voters ARE overperforming by 10 for dems and we just dont see it because rust belt polling in the swing states is screwed? Who knows. Polling has been weird this year. Maybe we just dont know how to poll non swing states. idk. 

Either way, I'll say this. if this poll is worth a fraction as much as the polling community was making it out to be, maybe the GOP really is that screwed. Maybe we are in for a massive D overperformance. Keep in mind, even if we overperform by 4, what the IA polling average now is relative to the R+7 baseline that people would expect, that's still a very comfortable win for Harris. 

Idk. Maybe we are seeing the first rumblings of a harris victory here. I know I've been hearing rumors about how Harris internal polling has all the last minute voters going toward her, with many pissed off over the MSG rally last week. So maybe Harris is gonna win, and the polls are gonna be off like this is 2022, rather than it being 2016 or 2020. Maybe this is a reverse 2016 for democrats. Maybe allen lichtman and his keys were right all along. We don't know. This is screwy. I generally take the data and use it to predict results. But if the data is wrong, I'm gonna be wrong too. 

Really, a harris landslide is the victory we deserve. Trump is a fascist and has had so many campaign ending moves this election season that it's baffling harris isnt ahead. Even if people have malaise for the dems, it's like...yeah i get it you want change, but that doesnt mean you burn your house down to get it. 

Still, I'm gonna say, the last minute signs are making me more bullish on harris just like the last minute signs in 2016 made me more bullish on trump even if i still predicted a clinton win.

It's possible the data predicts a narrow trump win and then harris randomly overperforms by several points. That second map there could be the real election map. idk. I'm kinda getting hyped up with hopium here.

Yes, Trump is a fascist

 So....there apparently is some hullabaloo over on TYT over whether Trump is a fascist. Cenk thinks he is, and Ana did this weird "well ackshully fascism requires like a state of military mobilization" or something. And uh...yeah. The left is up in arms over Ana saying this, and while I try to be charitable to Ana, she's wrong on this.

Like, I dont use the term lightly. And I know where she's coming from. People debated whether Bush was a fascist too, and guess what, he wasn't. I dont like to call conservative opponents fascists. under normal circumstances it's in bad faith and it's the left wing equivalent of the right calling all liberal politicians communists. Honestly, it's tacky and in bad faith to make those kinds of comparisons without having valid standing in doing so. 

But Trump, he's different. He's a literal threat to democracy, and there have been many parallels to the third reich and mussolini's italy made against him that are disturbingly valid. And you know what? I decided to consult the dictionary to decide, whether he fits the definition of a fascist.

So according to Merriam Webster's dictionary, fascism is:

a populist political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation and by forcible suppression of opposition

 So let's go over this line by line.

 a populist political philosophy, movement, or regime

Trump is definitely an economic populist.

  that exalts nation and often race above the individual

 This part is a little iffy. Trump is a nationalist and a racist, and promises to do large scale deportations of illegal immigrants (sometimes assumed to be code for ethnic minorities in general), but I wouldnt say that nation or race is placed above the individual. There is some jingoism in the GOP, and a lot of faux patriotism, but I'm not sure if it's above the individual. 

As far as race, while Trump isn't necessarily like, so racist he started going on exactly like hitler does about like you know the white race blah blah blah, he definitely has his contingent of supporters who do. And he has kinda played footsie with the to a disturbing degree, having people like Steve Bannon or Stephen Miller. None of this is a smoking gun in and of itself, but he's flirted with this stuff to a disturbing degree, more than most republicans have. 

It should also be noted that if you play with technical academic definitions definitions of the term fascist, then you may be missing the big picture. The nazis didnt start out with the concentration camps. They started with demonizing minorities, deportations, and allowing systemic harassment akin to Kristalnacht and stuff. And as the minority report points out, maybe we shouldnt say someone isnt a bank robber unless they get out of the bank with the money or someone isnt a murderer because they didnt actually succeed in killing someone. We should go according to intention, not their success.

So...the fact is, the fact we can make as much of a comparison to Trump as we can to EARLY mid 1930s nazi germany is disturbing in and of itself. And maybe we shouldn't fool around with waiting for him to meet the technical definition because by then it's too late and we're screwed.

, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader

 Trump WANTS to be a dictator, and he wants to centralize power as per project 2025. 

and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation

 I'm guessing they mean like....minorities treated differently from whites here? While our institutions held against trump in his first term, it's very well possible in his second, we will see a rolling back of stuff, especially if the GOP controls the entirety of the government and goes along with him. 

Again, i'd rather not wait to find out.

by forcible suppression of opposition

 If he could forcibly suppress his opposition, he would. he has used repressive force against protesters, i think he would suppress the media if he could, and he certainly has called for locking up political opponents like clinton in 2016 before. And let's not forget january 6th.

Final prognosis

I don't think Trump fits the COMPLETE definition of fascism and he lacks some of the finer points, like an outright racist ideology that goes beyond just being a bloviating jack### who is prejudiced against people who doesnt like and wanting to deport illegal immigrants. if anything trump has, despite his very obvious racist rhetoric and racism associated with his campaign, tried to court minority groups like latinos. 

But that's the thing. He's an unsophisticated racist, meaning he has no outright fascist, white supremacist ideology. He's too boorish in some ways to meet the definition of fascism. Fascists are more "sophisticated racists", meaning they have this grand theory of everything about why white people are better and everyone else is trash. I think Trump lacks that, although some of his supporters sure don't, nor do some people he's employed in his administration before. So are there fascist influences in his administration despite him not being an outright "fascist" himself? Sure. 

But beyond that, yeah, he's a populist. Yeah, he has nationalist and racist qualities. A lot of his policies seem out of the early stages of nazi germany's playbook. And he IS authoritarian, he DOES wanna be a dictator, and while i dont think he has a sophisticated ideology, and he's basically out for himself, that doesnt fully disqualify him. it just means that he's too stupid to pull it off.

And thankfully, that's the best thing about Trump. He's a complete and utter idiot. He was an incompetent moron who despite having these clearly dictatorial and authoritarian tendencies, he was too stupid and unsophisticated to pull it off. Not that he didn't try.

And the fact that he DID try to subvert american democracy and clearly does say the unhinged things he says and does clearly want to install himself in power and suppress other peoples rights should concern people.

Quite frankly, Trump fits about 60-70% of a fascist. Mainly because he's too stupid and unsophisticated to match the other 30-40%. but at the same time, the trump administration isnt just about trump. He has people behind the scenes like the project 2025 people and even a lot of outright fascist people who are feeding him policies and will use him to get what they want. And a lot of what his second term looks like really does look like it's straight out of the hitler playbook. 

Honestly, electing Trump is like playing with fire. You get him in, he undermines and threatens liberal democracy and our institutions and starts doing these mass deportations and taking away peoples rights and liberties, and yeah, we will backslide into an overtly fascist direction. Let's not kid ourselves. Trump is close enough to a fascist to be a fascist. And even if we can disagree on some finer points on the definition because he's too unsophisticated and boorish to fit the definition to a T, he's still fronting a full on fascist agenda going into his second term.

Election day on Tuesday people. Vote like your lives depend on it. Because they do. THIS IS NOT A DRILL. 

Keep in mind, was i freaked out about trump in 2016? Not really. I just saw him as a boorish populist and figured him winning was a fluke. I was more concerned with the democrats forcing centrism on us and crushing the chance of the left to actually have a candidate worth a darn. In 2020, even then I wasnt TOO concerned. I still thought "gee if you like the guy something's wrong with you", and i thought Biden would win by a landslide. 

But then he only barely won and trump's coalition was viable. Then january 6th happened and after letting that stew in my head a couple years, I've decided, yeah, this guy is full stop dangerous. And he actually has a coalition that could win. And he's going full mask off on the authoritarianism. And he is literally fronting fascists.

So there's been a lot of escalation from 2016, this isn't fun and games any more. He isnt just an idiot who won by dumb luck. This is a guy who is dangerous and has a coalition of illiberal authoritarians with fascist tendencies that they wanna force on the people. And our best chance of beating him, is doing so at the ballot box.

So...let's get to it. PA is ground zero. As you can tell by my predictions, it all comes down to PA. So to my fellow Pennsylvanians, get out there and VOTE. And yes, vote for Kamala Harris, she's the only one who can beat trump. And this election is kind of important as the stakes are higher. This is literally possibly the most important election of our lives. It's the crossroads between remaining free and putting the hands of the country into the hands of a possible fascist with no checks and balances, given they'll also probably control congress, the courts, and trump will be purging the administrative state and filling it with those loyal to him. So this is a defcon 1, bona fide threat to democracy. Our institutions contained him last time. But if he wins again, they may fail. I'm not kidding. We're literally at the part of the angst music videos where voting for trump is like shooting the tvs. 

So...yeah. That's my closing argument against Donald Trump. Don't vote for him.

Discussing the most likely scenarios to happen

 So, I now simulated 103 predictions for that project on this blog, but let's face it. My simulator is kinda garbage. Still, let's look at the most likely ways that this election can turn out. 

The most likely scenario: Simulation 69

This is basically what my election prediction currently predicts as the most likely scenario. If the election follows the odds perfectly, this is the scenario that we will get. Basically, 251-287, WI and MI go blue, the other 5 swing states go red.

The most likely Harris win: Simulation 101

I actually had to make the simulator spit this one out. It didnt show up in my sample of 100, and despite that, I still think it's among the most likely scenarios, and I'm rooting for this one to happen. 

But what if Harris doesn't win PA?: Simulation 79

Technically the most likely version of this includes North Carolina and not Georgia, but it can work with Georgia too. if Harris can't win Pennsylvania, she will need to win some combination of the other four states. Nevada and North Carolina are the most likely path, but that simulation did not come up in my sample of 100. Still, again, works with Georgia too. ANY win not involving PA is going to require either NC or GA, with either NV or AZ. NV/NC is the most likely combination, AZ/GA is the least likely one, and NV/AZ won't win it at all.

Most likely Trump win after winning PA: Simulation 8

After PA falls, WI and MI are next. I wanted to post maps of both, but only the MI map came up here.

Most likely Harris win after winning PA: Simulation 18

Nevada is the most likely to fall after going Pennsylvania. It is becoming more of a lean R with the rest of the sun belt, but of the 4 sun belt states, it's the most likely to flip.

Most likely Trump win not involving PA: Simulation 26

While there are many maps that could show this, the most likely outcome is Trump will simply bypass PA and go after Michigan or Wisconsin. In this scenario, he wins both, but PA is the lone swing state that goes blue.

The Trump "blowout" map: Simulation 61

It's very well possible due to polling error that all 7 swing states will go for one candidate. Trump is the more likely candidate to experience a blowout scenario since the center of gravity is in his favor and WI and MI are technically only "tilt D", but if he overperforms, it can happen. 

However, Harris can also experience such an outcome. It's far less likely, but still within the margin of error.

The Harris "blowout" map: Simulation 102

It would require overcoming about 3 points of polling error for this outcome to happen, but it's also well within the realm of possibility. The simulator didnt spit it out much, but it also seems to trend toward moderate outcomes as it treats each states as its own simulation, with national trends not taken into consideration. But yes, national trends happen, if systemic overperformance are possible. Hence, this map. 

The most likely tie: Simulation 103

This is one of the least likely combinations involving the 7 swing states, given it would involve the reddest going blue and the bluest going red, but this scenario is the most likely 269-269 tie, especially given Nebraska CD2 is now functionally safe D. Most 269-269 scenarios are very hard to come by with the current polling these days, but if I had to guess which would occur, I would say it's this one.

Most likely 306-232 outcome: Simulation 5

Given 306-232 was the electoral outcome both for 2016 and 2020, some like to joke 306-232 is inevitable. Well, if that's the case trump wins, because the most likely scenario is Harris winning Nevada and Trump winning the other 6 swing states. i know for an exercise someone asked about harris outcomes and yeah, the ones my simulator spat out aren't exactly likely.

Conclusion

So, I wanted to showcase around 10 or so scenarios that of the sample of simulations I produced and screenshotted, would be the most likely. While most scenarios did come up, some of them required me fishing for results, and I still sometimes lacked results that I felt were very likely. Still, I do acknowledge that in a sample of 100, there are simply so many ways the election can go that it's possible some scenarios just arent gonna pop up. At the same time, many scenarios my simulator spat out were nonsensical garbage.

On the one hand, that works to my advantage since the actual outcomes might not be any of these maps, but some map that you WOULD need a random number generator powered simulator to spit out. At the same time, that simulator is also gonna spit out a lot of garbage. I wasn't able to adequately improve my simulator this year to my liking, and what i got is a very rudimentary one. Still, it does work well enough to generate outcomes that I would say are some of the most likely scenarios. It's not perfect. But it works "well enough" for 2024. 

Anyway, we'll see what the actual outcome is. And then we'll see if my simulator predicted it, and if it matches any of the ones here (including ones that i mention but that didn't come up).

Election Update 11/1/24

 So, this is the last NORMAL update. The next update I'll do on monday, and then I'll revise it tuesday as the data changes before the polls close. That will be the FINAL update, similar to my 2016 and 2020 final updates.

Presidential

So, I dont trust the national popular vote average at all. I suspect herding there. I mean, this entire election cycle, the popular vote has been 1.5-2 more D than the tipping point vote and then they converge last minute? Nah, pollsters are hedging their bets and dont wanna be wrong. It's dishonest, it's hacky, and i condemn it. People should post the data, whatever it is, don't do funky things with it, and let it speak for itself. That's how you get truth. These guys are just copying off of each others' homework. Bleh.

Heck, the same can be said for the election in general. I don't trust the polls much at all right now. I think most pollsters are herding, although attempting to counter for that by looking at the polling ranges and averaging the two most extreme results...gets me an average not all that different from what we see here. WI and MI are more blue, but otherwise it's kinda close. 

So the electoral college. I would say outside of the swing states, and even among the sun belt, we're seeing a shift toward trump. MN,NM,NH, and VA have all become a bit less left leaning. IA, TX, FL, OH and ME2 are all a bit more right leaning.

As far as the swing states go, we're seeing a bifurcation that goes in the direction I've suspected the race would fall all along. The sun belt is going red. AZ and GA have been on that trend for weeks. NV and NC in the past couple days have started following. But at the same time, a path remains available for Harris. WI and MI are now in the blue column (and if anything I think the polling underestimates their margins due to my "anti herding" exercise, and these states are actually lean D, not tilt D). And that leaves PA.

PA...it all comes down to us (I say this, as someone from this great state). This election is probably either gonna be 251-287 Trump, or 270-268 Harris. Other outcomes are possible, see my simulation exercise, and a systematic overperformance in either direction will radically change the map.

If Harris overperforms even by 1 point, it's 270-268 Harris, gg no re. If Trump overperforms by 1 then WI and MI fall to trump and he sweeps all 7 226-312. If Harris fails to take PA, she's gonna have to rely on some combination of the other 4, with NV/NC being the easiest path. This is significantly less likely than just winning PA. 

And of course, this is why Trump is already throwing up signals of the vote being rigged in PA. He's trying to push his "big lie" again by casting doubt on the election results, meaning if PA doesn't go to him, then he's gonna throw a hissy fit and scream the whole thing was rigged again. And I saw a poll yesterday saying 72% of trump supporters WONT accept the result if trump won't win. So yeah, he's gonna try to pull a January 6th again. Just you wait. 

But yeah. Still, despite Trump having the advantage, it's a very thin one. It comes down to a 0.4% average in his favor in one state. If Harris overperforms, she wins the election. It really is almost 50-50 here. And even though I kinda like to count the sun belt out, you technically can't. Because if Harris overperforms by 3 points, she sweeps all 7 states herself. See the exercise i did the other day. 

And yeah, that's where we're at. 

Senate

We're screwed in the senate. The most likely outcome is 49-51R, the osborn polling dropped since switching to RCP's numbers, and it's in the same category as texas and florida. We would need an 4+ point overperformance to win it, while if the GOP did that to us, we'd be wiped out and the senate would be like 44-56R. The GOP has the same likelihood of crushing us and wiping out the rust belt + arizona, as we do of taking texas, nebraska, or florida. We're screwed here. I'm just gonna say it. 

House

In the house things seem...cautiously optimistic. We actually have a nominal lead in the house right now, with us winning 218-217 with a 51% chance, but...let's face it, it's 50-50. Still. Just like with the presidency, we have a shot here. 

Simulations

I did 100 for each...

Presidency- 47D,53R,0T

Senate- 2D,96R,2T

House- 24D,76R

It's weird, for the presidency the race is a lot closer than it was in my simulation of 100 screenshotted outcomes. Not sure what's up with that. I did them in samples of 10 so that may have made a difference, but yeah it will prefer trump in the short term, but if you keep spamming the button in one session it comes out even.

And yeah, it's about as split as you'd expect. The race really is 50-50 roughly.

The senate, on the other hand, has the GOP dominating the outcomes. As I said, the odds of us winning the senate, or even cracking a tie, are REALLY BAD. And the simulator makes it even worse. 

As for the house, it keeps favoring the GOP despite a nominally tied forecast. Might be the probabilities of individual states. I keep saying it but on the chart the GOP simply has more of a chance to flip stuff, since i assume states are safe if not considered "in play" and backed by actual polling data.

Conclusion

Well, it looks like in the house and the presidency, the race is coming down to the wire. In the electoral college, the fate of the free world is in the hands of Pennsylvania and the other rust belt states. In the house, the chamber is split almost 50-50 and I expect a close result either way.

The only thing I'm certain about this point is the senate looks REALLY BAD for democrats. They CAN win or tie this thing. They still have that 1 in 7 chance, but it would require a massive overperformance and I just dont have enough hopium to predict that. It's within the possible range of results my prediction implies, but that outcome is not likely. I'm just gonna call it for the GOP there. 

And yeah. That's where things are at. I'll start my final prediction on monday, although I may edit it as the day goes on or into tuesday if the data changes. You know how it is.

100(+) simulations until election day: Day 5 part 3 (final)

 So...I'm going to be honest. I'm tired of this. So this is gonna be the last iteration of this. I did 10 more random simulations, and then I fished for my simulator for 3 more that I wanted to come up but didn't. And yeah. Beyond that, I'm gonna be done with this exercise. I might go through the 103 final simulations I made and pick out the ones I feel are the best, but other than that, TIRED OF SIMULATIONS. Seriously, this was fun at first, but it got tedious. 

So, let's get this over with.

Simulation 91

WI, PA, but no michigan. Surprised this one didn't come up before. But yeah, very possible map.

Simulation 92

Another weird map with blue kansas that will probably never happen (seriously, i despise that kansas R+5 poll, it's causing weird stuff that should never come up to constantly come up).

Simulation 93

One of those cases where the lack of nevada screws us.

Simulation 94

Another random combination. 

Simulation 95

Standard 226-312 map but with Maine CD2 randomly going blue. Probably won't happen but...interesting.

Simulation 96

Losing PA and NM. 

Simulation 97

Another loss for Harris...

Simulation 98

Here Harris does pretty good.

Simulation 99

Another worthless blue kansas map (curse you RCP)

Simulation 100

Blue texas = Trump BFTOed.

Okay, so...that said, I'm done. Those are the random 100. And before I continue, let's do the tally.

The final tally

66 Trump, 33 Harris, 1 Tie

This seems more lopsided than when I just spam the button 100 times, but yeah, it seemed to give me a 2:1 ratio of Trump/Harris outcomes. I would normally expect a slightly more equal distribution than that, like maybe 60-40. Ah well. We'll see what we get tomorrow when i do my election update. 

Anyway, I will include a couple bonus maps to finish this off. These ARENT random. These are maps that I expected to come up, but didn't come up randomly. And I wanna throw them into the pile.

Simulation 101

This is the standard 270-268 Harris win map. If harris wins, this is the most likely win. I'm surprised it never came up. It's not even that uncommon. But yeah. I kinda feel stupid NOT having this one in the mix.

Simulation 102

Here's your standard "Harris blowout" win. Again, I know it's not exactly super likely right now given many swing states, especially in the rust belt, are going more "lean trump" now (which might also explain why the simulator is acting as it is with all the 240-260 Harris EV simulations), but yeah. This is actually like one of THE most common possible election maps. The simulator doesnt recognize it as such. because it's brute forcing outcomes.

Simulation 103

This is what I deem the most likely tie, now that NE2 is basically considered safe blue now. It's a weird sun belt combination of states, and if anything it's the complete opposite outcome with harris getting the most trump leaning states and trump getting the most harris leaning, but this CAN happen. I'd expect the 276-262 outcome for harris before this one (see simulation 18), but this map technically can happen, and barring weird things with faithless electors throwing the entire thing into a meat grinder, this is what i consider the most likely tie.

With that. I'm done with this exercise. Let's see if my simulator actually predicts the actual outcome. But after doing this, I'm done with simulations. Heck, I'm really getting tired of election coverage in general, and I kinda can't wait until election season is over at this point. Can it just be november 5th? Pretty please? I'm ready for this to be over.