Election Update 11/5/24: my final, FINAL predictions

 Okay, so, I discussed the meat and potatoes of this in other articles, and my predictions arent that much different than last night, but I wanted a nice and easy place to access all of my final predictions that isn't messy. So, this is gonna be abridged, if you want to read my rationale in detail, check out yesterday's article.

Presidential (official)

My model officially has Donald Trump winning with 251-287 and a 54% chance of winning. I feel obligated to provide the full raw results, after what happened in 2020 with my actual prediction being so far off. 

Presidential (unofficial/personal)

However, I think Harris is going to win, 276-262. There are a lot of reasons I think this. I think the polls are probably underestimating Harris. I think there's a lot of herding and right wing poll bombing going on. I think the selzer poll indicates that the WWC vote is likely trending more blue in the rust belt. I think that the MSG rally pissed off the latino population in eastern PA, and living in one such city that is majority latino, the vibes here are very anti Trump. So I don't think he's winning PA. I also suspect NV will flip based on its tossup nature, it going blue in 2016 and 2020, and other predictions I've seen.

Senate

I think the senate is very easily going into the hands of the GOP, with them winning 48-52 with a 86% chance of them taking it. I'm letting my senate predictions stand as they are. No adjustments.

House

I think that the house is a tossup, but my official prediction is a 218-217 democratic lead with them having a 57% chance of taking it. However, my house forecast is experimental, so treat it as 50-50. It should be noted margins are 1/5/15 as I'm reusing this from a prediction contest.

Governors

Not much worth noting. I think Josh Stein will stomp Mark Robinson in NC, and in NH I think that the republican will win, probably by a margin of 1.5-2. It should be noted the yapms map is 1/5/15 as I am reusing this from a prediction contest.

Conclusion

So, in short:

Model prediction- 257-281 Trump, 54% chance

Personal prediction- 276-262 Harris

Senate prediction- 48-52 Republican, 86% chance

House- 218-217 Democrat, 57% chance

Governors- Stein wins NC, Ayotte wins NH, see map for details