So....Biden would've probably done 4 points worse than Harris

 So, I saw a poll today that seems to indicate that if Biden was the nominee, the popular vote would've been R+7. We're currently at R+3. 

So.....remember the R+2.5 map I had? We would've had R+6 or so, so something between my R+4 and R+8 predictions. So something like this, except with blue oregon and maybe red new jersey. YES YOU HEARD THAT RIGHT, MAYBE RED NEW JERSEY, idk, it would probably look whiteish blue on here. 

And that tracks, because Harris performed about 4 points above Biden. I mean, to show the probability thing again:

Harris had a 46% chance, because she was down by 0.4% in PA. When Biden dropped out, he was at 13%, because he was down 4.5% in PA. So yeah.

Now, the above map isnt fully accurate, it's an approximation based on my polling model. 

VA would still probably be white-blue, kinda like NJ should be. But other states could flip. Maybe it would look more like the R+4 map:

People REALLY didn't like joe biden. No original source, but I saw a graphic showing that one of harris's big killers was being too similar to joe biden, and joe biden's popularity was like 30 points underwater.

Really. I don't want to hear from anyone that not replacing biden would've helped us. Nor do I wanna hear that it was racism and misogyny. Yes, there are some real racist and misogynist frickwits out there who voted trump. I've heard the anecdotes of young trumpy men going "your body MY choice" too, and it's disgusting. But I really dont think this is because harris was a woman, or because she was black. This was because she was too similar to joe biden. The guy who would've done even worse.

I mean, I'm GONNA post it again, this is the literal Joe Biden map:

This is where we were when he dropped out. And it's THIS map that should be given a D+2.5 offset. Let's just look at that for a second:

Again, these maps are APPROXIMATIONS. Random variation makes stuff....vary. I'd need to make up an entirely new chart with the final results if I wanted something more directly comparable, but still, these results are telling. 

The point is, Biden....just really ended up screwing us. he got into office. He was already a milquetoast centrist. He failed to pass anything, inflation happened, he addressed it properly for what he did, but he didn't do anything that directly connected with people, nor did enough to raise their standard of living, and the democrats ran a campaign on "well ackshully the economy is good, vote for me" and lost. 

And Biden staying in the race would've screwed us. Just look at his chart, NY, NJ, IL being swing states? That's REAL. That happened. With Harris. NJ is D+5, IL is D+8, NY is D+11-12. We lost badly.