So....I'm kind of happy with how RCP has presented their data, as it seems like they ARE kinda manipulating and massaging averages to make them more right wing. Not to mention the right wing pollsters just doing it in general. So I figured, what if I used 538? Well, here's the alternative at 538.
Here, I would have 270-268 Harris with a 52% chance of victory. Better, i guess. And the non swing states are 1-2 points bluer like I'd expect.
To be fair it doesn't make a huge difference and given my informal prediction is D+1 on the RCP data, that does a decent job correcting for whatever nonsense they're doing to bring it in line with 538's data, but yeah. Honestly, I do think 270-268 or 276-262 are the most reasonable outcomes. And I don't think texas is up by 9 suddenly. And minnesota is only up by 4 for the dems.
Let's compare to my own prediction:
Yeah, my own forecast adjusted from RCP's data is basically within a very tight MOE with 538's. It doesnt make a huge difference but it is the difference between a harris win and a trump win. Keep in mind the raw RCP data is 251-287 with NH only up by 3, MN by 4, and VA by 5. Meanwhile Texas and Ohio are suddenly R+9. It's crazy. R+7, that's fair, R+9? Nah, no reason for such a sudden jump. I feel like the data is being manipulated there.
Well, we'll see tomorrow what reality actually is.....
No comments:
Post a Comment