Are ya winning son? NO!

 So...I didn't get around to doing this aspect of my election forecast because of rapidly changing polling last night and then today I really just didn't get around to posting this part, but I was thinking of doing a follow up article on different election scenarios. 

I did kind of describe these scenarios in my semi final update yesterday, but I was going to take my main election map and modify it in 6 different ways to estimate various levels of over and under performance. D+1, Harris flips PA and NV. D+4, she wins all 7 swing states, D+8, we might be looking at like blue florida, iowa, etc. On the flip side, R+1 flips wisconsin and michigan. R+4 doesnt flip much but throws NH and MN into tossup territory. R+8 means we lose virginia, new mexico, etc. I mean, I discussed these, but i didn't post maps. 

So...this is what we do know. 

I called florida for Trump by 8, he won by 14

Ohio, called Trump +9, he won by about 12

Texas, also Trump +9, currently Trump +14

Virginia was too close to call, I called it D+5, we currently have that but it took HOURS to call

Minnesota is too close to call, currently D+3, I called D+4

New Hampshire I called D+4, currently too close to call at D+5

New Mexico, I called D+7, currently D+5, too close to call

Maine, I called D+8-9, currently D+6, too early to call

NEW FRICKING JERSEY, I took it off my map as it was like D+16, it's D+5, too close to call

Swing states:

North Carolina already called for Trump, I called it R+1, currently R+3-4

Georgia already called for Trump, I called it R+1, currently R+2

Pennsylvania is the big one we absolutely can't afford to lose, my model had it R+<1, I called it D<1, currently R+2.5

Michigan, too close to call, I called D+1, currently R+6

Wisconsin, too close to call, I called D+<1, currently R+4

Arizona, too close to call, I called R+3, currently R+<1 (the one case of good news)

Nevada, too close to call, and too early to make any pronouncements about

Meanwhile in the senate,

Ohio, called it R+2, won R+4

Florida, called it R+4-5, won R+13

Texas, called it R+4-5, won R+10

Virginia, called D+10-12 or something, D+7-8

You guys get the picture yet?

Well, okay, how about I post a picture?

This is the R+4 map i never posted in that hypothetical article i wanted to post but didn't. And this is the scenario that most closely aligns with the current state of things.

Here's another picture. This is the Biden map when Biden dropped out.

Died 7/21/24, born 11/5/24, welcome back Joe Biden's electoral college map.

...yeah....

If things keep going as they are, these are basically the projected map. We're probably getting something close to the 226-312 scenario here. That's...how I see it. This is bad news for us. 

And right now, GA, is called, that's 235, NC is called, that's 251....

.....if PA falls, Trump gets 270. And we're behind around 3 there. This is not good. This is not good at all. 

I've kinda realized we were losing since around 10 PM or so. I've had these thoughts swirling for hours, and now I'm posting them.

So yeah, I think we're cooked. I wish I had better news. But that's where we are.