So...election prediction communities have been hyping up this selzer & co poll coming out tonight out of iowa, treating it as a bellweather of sorts. Basically, since iowa has a lot of midwestern white working class voters, basically, as goes iowa, goes the rust belt. And for some reason, people were placing tons of weight on this poll. They've argued that R+7 is the baseline for a tossup in the rust belt, with R+8 or better looking good for Trump, and R+6 or worse looking good for harris. People have been speculating about it for days, and tonight, it came out.
It's....Harris +3.
And everyone is just like...WHAT?! This poll is cooked. Because if it's accurate, then that means that Trump is screwed, and we're looking at a blue tsunami like we can't believe.
If we applied a D+10 filter to my predictions, this is what they would be.
That's...a blowout. A massive blowout. It would imply that the 95% threshold has been exceeded and my results are just wrong. Which means the entirety of polling is wrong.
I admit, the polls have been relatively cooked this year, with all of the herding and stuff, and I guess if you dont herd maybe your results look this nuts. Idk. But yeah. This...is probably not happening.
Another poll came out of emerson in iowa today with R+9, which is bullish on trump, but that isn't necessarily any better. if we averaged the two together, which is what RCP's polling average now is, we get R+3. And yes, im switching back to RCP data, I was going 538 as they had more polls and i thought the LAST selzer poll at R+4 was a little sus, but yeah this is just so bonkers it's gonna break the average no matter what site I use. It's like Kansas now.
Speaking of which, just a weird speculation, but I'd expect KS to be R+15, it's R+5. Maybe white working class voters ARE overperforming by 10 for dems and we just dont see it because rust belt polling in the swing states is screwed? Who knows. Polling has been weird this year. Maybe we just dont know how to poll non swing states. idk.
Either way, I'll say this. if this poll is worth a fraction as much as the polling community was making it out to be, maybe the GOP really is that screwed. Maybe we are in for a massive D overperformance. Keep in mind, even if we overperform by 4, what the IA polling average now is relative to the R+7 baseline that people would expect, that's still a very comfortable win for Harris.
Idk. Maybe we are seeing the first rumblings of a harris victory here. I know I've been hearing rumors about how Harris internal polling has all the last minute voters going toward her, with many pissed off over the MSG rally last week. So maybe Harris is gonna win, and the polls are gonna be off like this is 2022, rather than it being 2016 or 2020. Maybe this is a reverse 2016 for democrats. Maybe allen lichtman and his keys were right all along. We don't know. This is screwy. I generally take the data and use it to predict results. But if the data is wrong, I'm gonna be wrong too.
Really, a harris landslide is the victory we deserve. Trump is a fascist and has had so many campaign ending moves this election season that it's baffling harris isnt ahead. Even if people have malaise for the dems, it's like...yeah i get it you want change, but that doesnt mean you burn your house down to get it.
Still, I'm gonna say, the last minute signs are making me more bullish on harris just like the last minute signs in 2016 made me more bullish on trump even if i still predicted a clinton win.
It's possible the data predicts a narrow trump win and then harris randomly overperforms by several points. That second map there could be the real election map. idk. I'm kinda getting hyped up with hopium here.
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