Okay, so, I was watching a video about the economy and someone dropped this gem on me.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Hit "max" for date range. Now, I don't understand the full implications of this, I'm not that much of an expert. I understand econ 101 and the phillips curve but when it comes to money markets and the like you might as well be speaking greek to me. But...the long story short is this: you see that line? You see that dip? That's something called a yield curve inversion. It has something to do with long term interest rates being lower than short term or something. Anyway, when this happens...you see what follows? That grey line? That's a recession. The bigger the inversion in the graph, the bigger the recession that follows.
We've been in an inversion since we recovered from COVID. This inversion is the worst and most pronounced since the 1980s. When that line starts to recover, BOOM, the economy is, most likely, going to go into a recession, possibly on par with 2008 and its financial crisis.
Now, remember what I always say, inflation favors republicans. Because democratic policy involves spending money to improve peoples' lives, and the general solution to inflation is austerity (although this wave was weird and actually due to price gouging). And that's the chief reason the dems were screwed this time, the economic fundamentals just worked against them to such an extent they'd rather try 4 years with a fascist than a democrat. But if the bottom is about to fall out, well....let's face it, can trump handle a recession well? NOOOO. Could Harris? Well, I doubt she'd have the chops either. We'd likely get a Obama style performance out of her which is adequate, but we wouldn't have the agenda we really need.
By 2028, assuming democracy lives that long, um....we might be in a deep recession, and hopefully dems will learn from previous cycles and run a fricking populist agenda like FDR did.
Donald Trump is basically Herbert Hoover. And yeah, last time we tried tariffs in the US like trump did, it was during the hoover years. And it didnt fricking work, which is why we stopped doing it for 80 years.
Hopefully voters will FINALLY wake up and regret voting for this idiot again. Let's hope. This is the one possible ray of sunshine in all of this.
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