So....I've been using the 11/4 election update for my final forecast, and I've had to edit it extensively twice. The first time was due to new polls coming in, and me having to change the averages. But then some of it was also RCP cleaning their averages. They axed a lot of old polls and now the non swing states are often up to 2 points redder than they were this afternoon. We're talking MN, VA, TX, OH, stuff like that. Not a huge deal but it is a shift right.
Honestly, I dont think this is organic. Now, part of it may not be RCP's fault. The thing is...republicans ARE poll bombing the averages last minute. For some reason these trumpers seem to wanna treat polling as an information war to made their side look ahead to give the impression things are going more in their favor than they are. In 2020, i tried to correct for this, recognizing it, only for my forecast to be wrong. This time, i presented the data as is, but I did point out my actual forecast, my opinion, is D+1. And I stand by that. 257-281 Trump is what the data says, but I think 276-262 Harris is what we'll get. PA is probably swinging left, I can't see Trump winning here if my crappy city is basically the last campaign stop. People HATE trump here. As I said, people were booing his motorcade when he burned rubber up my street going to the airport. Ya know? So...yeah. And nevada, that's the one state that swung LEFT significantly today that I felt was on the edge to begin with, so yeah.
But yeah back to the topic at hand. Trumpers....are sadly treating polling as an information war. They're trying to push right wing polls to cheerlead for their side, and it's quite clear the same few polling industries, looking at you, trafalgar, insideradvantage, TIPP, and atlas intel, are constantly bombing the averages. Some of them have been pushing new polls in the same states every day this week, and it seems like their entire goal in the past few days has been to shift the entire forecast to the right.
And it's just so obvious. Like....okay, we had that D+3 poll out of Iowa. Well, suddenly these jokers are doing polls in iowa to push up the average in trump's direction. It really does seem like they're not treating polling as the honorable industry that it should be, finding the truth, and instead they're just using it to push their propaganda. Probably so trump can turn around and point to polls being off in his favor so he can scream it was rigged.
It's a joke. It's pissing the academic in me off. I mean, polling is an academic thing for me. I look at pollsters, i trust them at their word, and if they abuse that trust for political gain, well, it's ruining the craft. It really is. And then there's the fricking herding. It's like no one takes this seriously any more. They're all falling off a cliff and posting ridiculous and fake results and it's a joke. They're turning the industry into a joke.
Honestly, this happened last time too, but as it turned out, those right wing pollsters were most accurate, so i ended up regretting messing with my forecast last time and promising to follow it this time.
This time, I'm presenting the data as is, but I'm also giving my own informal opinion prediction. Because error exists, and I dont think the actual data is reliable. Hence why I'm going 276-262 Harris instead of 251-287 trump. I'm not gonna jump the shark going like 319-219 Harris. I actually have no case to make for the sun belt going blue. But rust belt? Yeah i think it's gonna go blue. And I think the non swing states are more off in the republican direction too.
Honestly, I expect the results to be more democratic than the data shows. How much? idk, but I'm going with D+1 officially. We could see up to D+4 though IMO. If we end up with D+8 or god forbid D+10 a la the selzer poll, then the polling industry needs to take a hard look at themselves, stop the bull####, and actually come back around and do things PROPERLY. None of this herding crap, and I hope to god the above outlets I called out just go out of fricking business and get stricken from the averages. Because this is fricking BS. It's ridiculous. I'm just gonna say it.
We'll see what reality is tomorrow. But yeah. I hope Trump gets his butt kicked, and I hope he doesn't come back. Let's close this dark chapter of american history. I'm ready to be done with this BS.
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