So...I'm going to be honest. I'm tired of this. So this is gonna be the last iteration of this. I did 10 more random simulations, and then I fished for my simulator for 3 more that I wanted to come up but didn't. And yeah. Beyond that, I'm gonna be done with this exercise. I might go through the 103 final simulations I made and pick out the ones I feel are the best, but other than that, TIRED OF SIMULATIONS. Seriously, this was fun at first, but it got tedious.
So, let's get this over with.
Simulation 91
WI, PA, but no michigan. Surprised this one didn't come up before. But yeah, very possible map.
Simulation 92
Another weird map with blue kansas that will probably never happen (seriously, i despise that kansas R+5 poll, it's causing weird stuff that should never come up to constantly come up).
Simulation 93
One of those cases where the lack of nevada screws us.
Simulation 94
Another random combination.
Simulation 95
Standard 226-312 map but with Maine CD2 randomly going blue. Probably won't happen but...interesting.
Simulation 96
Losing PA and NM.
Simulation 97
Another loss for Harris...
Simulation 98
Here Harris does pretty good.
Simulation 99
Another worthless blue kansas map (curse you RCP)
Simulation 100
Blue texas = Trump BFTOed.
Okay, so...that said, I'm done. Those are the random 100. And before I continue, let's do the tally.
The final tally
66 Trump, 33 Harris, 1 Tie
This seems more lopsided than when I just spam the button 100 times, but yeah, it seemed to give me a 2:1 ratio of Trump/Harris outcomes. I would normally expect a slightly more equal distribution than that, like maybe 60-40. Ah well. We'll see what we get tomorrow when i do my election update.
Anyway, I will include a couple bonus maps to finish this off. These ARENT random. These are maps that I expected to come up, but didn't come up randomly. And I wanna throw them into the pile.
Simulation 101
This is the standard 270-268 Harris win map. If harris wins, this is the most likely win. I'm surprised it never came up. It's not even that uncommon. But yeah. I kinda feel stupid NOT having this one in the mix.
Simulation 102
Here's your standard "Harris blowout" win. Again, I know it's not exactly super likely right now given many swing states, especially in the rust belt, are going more "lean trump" now (which might also explain why the simulator is acting as it is with all the 240-260 Harris EV simulations), but yeah. This is actually like one of THE most common possible election maps. The simulator doesnt recognize it as such. because it's brute forcing outcomes.
Simulation 103
This is what I deem the most likely tie, now that NE2 is basically considered safe blue now. It's a weird sun belt combination of states, and if anything it's the complete opposite outcome with harris getting the most trump leaning states and trump getting the most harris leaning, but this CAN happen. I'd expect the 276-262 outcome for harris before this one (see simulation 18), but this map technically can happen, and barring weird things with faithless electors throwing the entire thing into a meat grinder, this is what i consider the most likely tie.
With that. I'm done with this exercise. Let's see if my simulator actually predicts the actual outcome. But after doing this, I'm done with simulations. Heck, I'm really getting tired of election coverage in general, and I kinda can't wait until election season is over at this point. Can it just be november 5th? Pretty please? I'm ready for this to be over.
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