Discussing the most likely scenarios to happen

 So, I now simulated 103 predictions for that project on this blog, but let's face it. My simulator is kinda garbage. Still, let's look at the most likely ways that this election can turn out. 

The most likely scenario: Simulation 69

This is basically what my election prediction currently predicts as the most likely scenario. If the election follows the odds perfectly, this is the scenario that we will get. Basically, 251-287, WI and MI go blue, the other 5 swing states go red.

The most likely Harris win: Simulation 101

I actually had to make the simulator spit this one out. It didnt show up in my sample of 100, and despite that, I still think it's among the most likely scenarios, and I'm rooting for this one to happen. 

But what if Harris doesn't win PA?: Simulation 79

Technically the most likely version of this includes North Carolina and not Georgia, but it can work with Georgia too. if Harris can't win Pennsylvania, she will need to win some combination of the other four states. Nevada and North Carolina are the most likely path, but that simulation did not come up in my sample of 100. Still, again, works with Georgia too. ANY win not involving PA is going to require either NC or GA, with either NV or AZ. NV/NC is the most likely combination, AZ/GA is the least likely one, and NV/AZ won't win it at all.

Most likely Trump win after winning PA: Simulation 8

After PA falls, WI and MI are next. I wanted to post maps of both, but only the MI map came up here.

Most likely Harris win after winning PA: Simulation 18

Nevada is the most likely to fall after going Pennsylvania. It is becoming more of a lean R with the rest of the sun belt, but of the 4 sun belt states, it's the most likely to flip.

Most likely Trump win not involving PA: Simulation 26

While there are many maps that could show this, the most likely outcome is Trump will simply bypass PA and go after Michigan or Wisconsin. In this scenario, he wins both, but PA is the lone swing state that goes blue.

The Trump "blowout" map: Simulation 61

It's very well possible due to polling error that all 7 swing states will go for one candidate. Trump is the more likely candidate to experience a blowout scenario since the center of gravity is in his favor and WI and MI are technically only "tilt D", but if he overperforms, it can happen. 

However, Harris can also experience such an outcome. It's far less likely, but still within the margin of error.

The Harris "blowout" map: Simulation 102

It would require overcoming about 3 points of polling error for this outcome to happen, but it's also well within the realm of possibility. The simulator didnt spit it out much, but it also seems to trend toward moderate outcomes as it treats each states as its own simulation, with national trends not taken into consideration. But yes, national trends happen, if systemic overperformance are possible. Hence, this map. 

The most likely tie: Simulation 103

This is one of the least likely combinations involving the 7 swing states, given it would involve the reddest going blue and the bluest going red, but this scenario is the most likely 269-269 tie, especially given Nebraska CD2 is now functionally safe D. Most 269-269 scenarios are very hard to come by with the current polling these days, but if I had to guess which would occur, I would say it's this one.

Most likely 306-232 outcome: Simulation 5

Given 306-232 was the electoral outcome both for 2016 and 2020, some like to joke 306-232 is inevitable. Well, if that's the case trump wins, because the most likely scenario is Harris winning Nevada and Trump winning the other 6 swing states. i know for an exercise someone asked about harris outcomes and yeah, the ones my simulator spat out aren't exactly likely.

Conclusion

So, I wanted to showcase around 10 or so scenarios that of the sample of simulations I produced and screenshotted, would be the most likely. While most scenarios did come up, some of them required me fishing for results, and I still sometimes lacked results that I felt were very likely. Still, I do acknowledge that in a sample of 100, there are simply so many ways the election can go that it's possible some scenarios just arent gonna pop up. At the same time, many scenarios my simulator spat out were nonsensical garbage.

On the one hand, that works to my advantage since the actual outcomes might not be any of these maps, but some map that you WOULD need a random number generator powered simulator to spit out. At the same time, that simulator is also gonna spit out a lot of garbage. I wasn't able to adequately improve my simulator this year to my liking, and what i got is a very rudimentary one. Still, it does work well enough to generate outcomes that I would say are some of the most likely scenarios. It's not perfect. But it works "well enough" for 2024. 

Anyway, we'll see what the actual outcome is. And then we'll see if my simulator predicted it, and if it matches any of the ones here (including ones that i mention but that didn't come up).