Sunday, November 3, 2024

Revised maps for if the selzer poll is accurate

 yeah so I kinda screwed up the maps in my OG article on this, but I did create a revised map for if the selzer poll is actually accurate. For this, I set iowa to a baseline of R+7 like was expected for a competitive rust belt, and also applied a 10 point offset for Kansas. So this map should have no double dipping.

This is bascially it. D+10, we turn Texas, we turn Florida, we turn alaska, we even make missouri a tossup, it's insane. I struggle to believe this is actually accurate because this is beyond even my 95% confidence interval. 

Even half of this would be a relative electoral blowout for harris.

I do think it helps, as I said I could see a localized improvement in the rust belt of maybe 1-3 points, but i don't actually think the selzer poll is true since if it is then the republicans are gonna face an apocalyptic beating, and it would basically mean literally all polling is not only wrong, it's so wrong it's not even within a reasonable margin of error. This is like FDR vs Alf Landon 1936 territory or something.

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