So, yeah, I might be voting Marianne Williamson in the primary when it comes up, but let's face it, she's gonna get 2%, and then I'm endorsing Biden. I already am basically endorsing Biden now. And, I feel like I should try to justify my decision to vote for Biden, especially given how I haven't exactly been a fan of him in the past. If you regularly read my blog, none of this is new, but for those I have not encountered before, this might serve as a solid basis for why I am voting for Biden this time around.
1) The Donald Trump Problem
Yes, Trump literally is a threat to democracy. I did not take him as seriously as a threat in 2016 and 2020. I know the democrats screamed about that a lot, but that's politics. I was a republican in 2008, I remember how the GOP screamed Obama was gonna be the end of democracy and he was a communist and he ended up being a middle of the road inoffensive centrist democrat. People say crazy crap when they're running for office. Trump says crazy crap to rile up his supporters. Democrats say crazy crap to rile up their base, with "Trump being a threat to democracy" being a common talking point. But I like to see myself as immune to that BS and a free thinker.
I knew a trump presidency would suck. I have no illusions of the GOP being crazy these days. But...I thought, hey, if Trump won, he would be so awful, he would be destroyed in subsequent elections and so would the party. I kind of assumed the American people had enough sense to NOT like this guy and to not support him again. In 2020, it seemed very obvious that Biden was gonna be a shoe in....but then on election night I had 2016 flashbacks as I watched the map go red and states I saw as easy Biden wins going to Trump. Biden did win, but it took several days to find out, and the results were very narrow. Trump and Biden both got insane turnout, and the scary thing is the Biden people BARELY beat Trump. Trump seems to have crafted a durable coalition and has shown that he ain't messing around. Biden winning only came with insanely high turnout, FAR higher than Hillary's in 2016. But his support was mostly tenuous, with most people not really liking him. I'll come back to this point in a bit.
Anyway, after the election, Trump decided to be a sore loser. He started crafting narratives about how the democrats "stole" the election, and how Trump actually won, and blah blah blah...and yeah, no, get over it, Donny. But he didn't get over it. And on Janaury 6th, he managed to rile up his supporters into an attack on the capitol. Things went nuts for HOURS and no national guard was there to stop it. After watching this dude crack the heads of BLM people all year, it was like...where the heck is the national guard?
Well, the facts came out and in 2022 we had the congressional hearings on the subject. And the democrats made a very thorough, and convincing case that yes, this was intentional, yes, Trump wanted it to happen, and yes, he also withheld the national guard and delayed their response for hours.
This election cycle, Donald Trump is an accused felon. he is facing 91 felony counts. Some related to this. Some related to election fraud. Some related to him having nuclear secrets at Mar a Lago and refusing to return them. Donald Trump is a scumbag. He makes Nixon look like a choir boy. He's a threat to democracy, and while our checks and balanced worked last time, I could see this guy literally breaking democracy this time like tyrants like Hitler and Putin have tried to do (and succeeded) in the past. This guy CANNOT be allowed to take office again, and as such, I am a bit more willing to 'vote blue no matter who."
2) Biden has actually been a decent president
So, when I purity test, I have metrics. I have specific policies I want accomplished, and I grade candidates by their intentions to enact such policies. When I actually size Biden up, he's been mildly progressive. The dude wanted a $15 minimum wage, child tax credit (AKA UBI for kids), pro union legislation, free community college, student debt forgiveness, build back better (AKA mini green new deal), universal preK, universal child care, parental leave, and probably a bunch of other stuff I can't even think of. Let's face it, Biden was never gonna meet all of my standards, no one ever does. I feel like if I were president I'd likely betray a few of my own purity tests too due to the practicality that comes with the office. Biden is no Bernie. He's no Yang, but he's...something. And that counts for something.
He gets even better when you get away from my core economic purity tests. On social issues, dude has been solid. On foreign policy issues, I couldn't do it better myself. Like literally. He actually scores like a 66/100 on my big picture metric, and is one of the highest candidates in that regard. On my economic purity test he's more like a 30/100, but given how no one but marianne williamson is remotely close to perfect (with williamson only getting there by shoehorning UBI in at the last minute), that's still something.
So...when I think about it...has Biden "earned my vote"? Yes, he has. He's done what I consider to be at least the minimum necessary to earn my vote. And as such, I'll stick by him.
3) There is no one else
So, while a few people in the democratic primaries did exceed Biden in my opinion, for the most part, there isn't anyone else who I like more. If I were to go for a third party candidate, I'd go for someone like Cornel West or Jill Stein. But am I passionate about them either? No. If anything I like Biden better. For every advantage a third party candidate has over Biden, like support for medicare for all, they also seem to do worse at something else, like being horribly inexperienced, or not having a competent and realistic foreign policy.
Even on economics, as I start to differentiate myself both from the liberal center and the socialist left, I really aint super impressed by the alternatives. NONE of these third party guys are UBI guys/gals. If they support it at all its shoehorned in with little to no intention of implementing, because most are green new dealers. Meanwhile on the environment, build back better is ACTUALLY more up my alley. And yes, again, third party candidates do support medicare for all, but at the same time, they're worse at almost everything else.
Which brings me to my next point
4) This is a bad year for democrats
In 2016, it seemed like the future of the democratic party was safe and secure. Obama had this coalition of the ascendant, and it really did seem like the collapse of the GOP was inevitable. They were becoming too extreme. They were becoming unelectable. The only thing holding them together in congress was a lot of gerrymandering. The electoral college was shifting in a way that they were losing ANY path to the white house.
And the democratic base wanted something more. They wanted someone like a Bernie Sanders. They wanted a new new deal. Young people were extremely progressive, and sick and tired of Reaganomics.
But then Hillary came in, feeling entitled to the presidency, and still in 1992 mode, believing that the answer was to ignore the left, shift hard to the center, and appeal to romney voters. This was a horrid strategy, and it seemed very fitting to protest vote the democrats. As I said, i could lose one election, but if we gained the next 40 years, that would be worth it.
But....Trump not only didnt bring an end to the GOP as we knew it, he kind of breathed new life into them. People LIKE that orange psychopath. And in 2020, Trump's near loss convinced me his coalition has insane amounts of staying power. Now states that used to be bellweathers for the country as a whole, like Florida and Ohio, are safely pro Trump. The Blue wall is now purple. The southern states the clinton/biden strategy worked on getting purple is KINDA working, but not really. I mean those states are still kind of out of reach for the most part, but some of them like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are technically "in play."
But this coalition isnt stable at all. Much like going into 2016, the dems are demotivated, they're unhappy with Biden, and that trump coalition is STILL fired up. And now, when I run electoral scenarios, Biden seems...like he's in trouble. He cant motivate his base, he's losing in poll after poll, and honestly, the country has moved on from 2016. A lot of voters who were swing in 2016 and wouldve potentially gone bernie, are now ride or die on trump. Meanwhile, Bernie isnt motivating people any more. He's too old, and his policies seem less popular, especially in the post COVID era.
We really have moved on from 2016. In 2016, it seemed like the future of the left is inevitable. In 2024, Im watching Biden get Jimmy Cartered, as the country blames him for everything that isnt his fault, turns on left wing policies, and meanwhile the left is just....demotivated. We are in trouble. And this is a year to come together to rally the party. If Biden's coalition implodes at this point, those on the chopping block are the left. We will lose support and influence, and the country's overton window will shift back right. In part due to the popularity of the GOP and in part because left wing policies arent motivating voters. All of that stuff I mentioned in point 2? It will disappear and never be mentioned again, if we lose here. The dems will "play it safe", run to the center, and we'll never get anything.
And before people think the problem is Biden:
5) There REALLY IS no one else!
Look, I'm a numbers guy. I do my own election predictions. You've seen my predictions. Bad news for Biden, and all, right? Well, if you replace Biden, it gets worse. Harris does worse. Newsom does worse. Whitmer does worse. Biden currently has an 18% chance at the white house. Harris probably would have like a 6-9% chance or something like that based on the one prediction I did. Newsom and Whitmer would probably do so bad they'd have a 0% chance. Biden IS the most electable candidate. There IS NO BETTER CANDIDATE IN 2024 THAT THE DEMOCRATS CAN RUN THAN BIDEN. No one polls better, no one can save us. I mean, if it turned out the problem was Biden and there was someone else more progressive waiting in the wings who would be 5-10 points higher in the polls, yeah, go for them. But there isn't. Biden is the best chance we got.
Ugh...Biden it is...I guess...
This basically sums up how I feel about this election cycle in general. Say it with me: "ugh, Biden it is...I guess..." It doesnt sound very good, it doesnt feel very good, it's not inspiring. Biden aint my ideal candidate. But he's okay. And the more I look around at the field. I look at Trump threatening to dismantle democracy. I look at third party candidates not being inspiring themselves. I look at Biden's milquetoast platform that aint bad...but yeah even I would like better. I look at the situation the country is in, and how people feel, and where we're going, and how people are thinking going to the polls, and I look at the prospects of the democrats dropping worse if we replace this 81 year old centrist democrat, and I'm just like...I guess we're stuck with him.
I would like better. Don't get me wrong. I'm progressive. I want someone better than Biden, but as I keep saying, 2024 isn't our year. There isn't really anyone better (even Williamson would likely be worse in some ways, and i doubt she's electable either). We're stuck with Biden. And if we dont elect this guy, that psycho Trump will win again. It doesn't feel very good. it doesn't sound very good, but that's where we're at as a country.
As such, I endorse Joe Biden for president, and may we have better luck in 2028.
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