So, voting for democrats, or voting for a third party? What should I do? That's the eternal debate I've faced every election cycle I've been on the left, minus 2012 where I just voted Obama because I hadn't fully thought out my views yet. And since 2016, I've mostly voted third party, for the greens or something like that, over the mainstream democrats. Some of it was out of spite, and a lot of it was out of a genuine desire for the left to move further left. But honestly, for the most part, most leftist candidates have been kinda cringe for me. I really had the eternal debate even as early as 2016, where I asked, do I suck it up and vote for Hillary who I despite but who I know is actually kinda practical on policies, or do i just vote my conscience for Jill Stein, who I knew was kind of an idiot and had no idea what she was doing policy wise, but it served as a good virtue signal? in 2016, given my distaste for Hillary, virtue signal won.
However, things have changed. I have made metrics to give me a good idea of who I should vote for for president, and I do tend to hold candidates accountable. In 2020, I found centrist candidates lacking and leftist candidates to be objectively better by those metrics. But as the battlegrounds changed from 2020 to 2024, and I fine tuned the metrics, I find that hey, leftists don't really scare that much higher than centrists these days, if they score higher at all. We see this with how I gave Biden a 66 on the primary metric I'm using this election cycle, whereas Jill Stein is down to a 45, and Cornel West is a bit higher at 50. Candidates like Marianne Williamson is a bit higher, at 77, but still not amazingly higher than Biden. In 2020, Biden was like a 40, and Bernie was around an 80, so what gives?
Well, let's look at the metric and see what differences we can really find
The metricThe primary metric I use to judge candidates for president is intended to be a snapshot of every single aspect of what I value for the job, ranging from support for my top policies, to support for other policies, to ideology, to commitment to progressive goals (as I define them), to their competence, and even, this time around, whether they are running as a democrat (since stopping Trump is a major goal of mine that overrides a lot of what I'd normally care about). Basically, it's 100 points, and I rate every potential candidate out of 100. Now, no candidate actually gets 100, it's intended to represent an ideal, and most people fall short of the ideals in some way. I only score an 87 due to my lack of experience and the fact that I suspect I might make some political compromises I wouldn't in an ideal reality. Bernie is actually the archetype of the perfect candidate, and much of the metric was designed around him, although to be fair I do diverge from him on issues like UBI and the like.
Generally, if you score above 80, that's very good. Scoring above 70 is normally a vote clincher, and, even above 60 can still be rather solid. Most centrist dems scored between 40-60 in 2020, although we can see, they are doing somewhat better this time.We'll see why going over the metrics itself.
Basic income support- 10 points
Basic income is an issue I believe in strongly enough to give a purity test to. Very few people score well on this, since very few people are for UBI. 10 points means you have some sort of sustainable UBI plan that guarantees an income near the poverty level. 5-9 means you might have some sort of flawed plan or a lukewarm commitment to the idea but still nominally support it. I also give partial credit (1-4 points) for things like expansions to the child tax credit, UBI trials, that sort of thing.
For reference, both centrists and leftists kinda suck at this one. Leftists tend to not support UBI or are lukewarm with it at best. Most are more interested in a green new deal or job's program, and as such, I rate them accordingly. Centrists ironically sometimes get partial credit. I gave Biden a couple points for his child tax credit expansion, for example. I gave Gavin newsom credit for the various UBI trials he signed off on in his state. Dean Phillips also got the same treatment here.
So ironically, sometimes centrists actually outperform leftists here.
Medicare for all support- 10 points
This is my other big purity test issue I deemed enough to make its own category. Look, we need medicare for all. And I hold people to that. Now, to be fair, given the difficulty of funding medicare for all on top of UBI, I can be flexible. hence why a public option gets a decent amount of partial credit, from 3 points all the way up to like 8, if it's like a really good one. This shift has allowed me to be a little more favorable to centrist candidates like kamala harris, whose healthcare plan is reminiscient of medicare extra for all.
What matters to me ultimately is support for some sort of universal healthcare guarantee. I can be flexible on implementation somewhat. Medicare for all was a hard purity test in the past, but now I can be swayed to support a more moderate plan if it still meets my goals. This has allowed some moderate candidates to gain a little support.
Other economic issues- 10 points
Here, I just give an overall view on their economics other than UBI and M4A. Other purity tests like free college, climate change, housing, etc. are included here. As are stuff like $15 minimum wage, union support, etc. Centrists can actually rack this up decently if they're not for full on UBI or M4A if they're otherwise quite progressive on unions, a $15 minimum wage, and have moderate plans on college, housing, and climate change. It's why Biden does so well here. he might not meet all my standards, but he kinda sorta gets there enough where he can at least score decently here. Meanwhile a leftist will often blow this one out of the park, but only do a little better. The marginal value of outflanking centrist dems to the left here only amounts to maybe 1-3 points, especially as centrists move left to appeal to Bernie voters.
Social issues- 10 points
Honestly, this is a metric where centrists and progressives both do good, and sometimes centrists do moderately better. Leftists tend to go hard into wokeism, which actually works against them a bit here. Meanwhile shifts right (center) on immigration, identity issues, and guns are actually kind of welcome. However, shifting right on the wrong issues (like abortion) can hurt somewhat. Still, leftists and centrists generally score fairly similarly to each other here.
Foreign policy issues- 10 points
In previous elections, this kinda felt unnecessary to really discuss. I didnt care much about foreign policy, I'd classify myself as somewhat noninterventionist, given the big issues of the day were Bush's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Basically, my goal was "don't mess up", meaning, dont get us entangled into more wars, but also dont do something stupid that makes us look weak.
In 2024, however, we've shifted. Biden finally pulled out of Afghanistan. And while that withdrawal was messy, it was necessary, like ripping a band aid off. So I give him credit for that. However, now the big issues are Ukraine and Israel. On Ukraine, I'm full on supportive of funding arms for Ukraine, but not fighting ourselves, which is..exactly what Biden is doing. And on Israel, I'm nominally pro Israel, but at the same time, I dislike Netanyahu's treatment of Palestinians in his war in Gaza. I still believe we should support him, allies need to stick together, but I do have distaste for it, and I'm not super sympathetic to Palestinians for various reasons.
As such, when I look at foreign policy, and I see Joe Biden and centrist dems, this is like...EXACTLY WHAT I WANT. Meanwhile, the left is losing the plot. They don't wanna send arms to Ukraine, they are going completely bugnuts CRAZY on the palestine issue, and they're making THIS their line in the sand.
I'm sorry, but this is where I diverge from the left significantly. I LIKE Biden's foreign policy, that's my jam. Being a sane, moderate dude who tries to keep the US safe and gives arms to allies, but stays out of conflicts himself. Who leads from behind, and let's others do the fighting for us. I dont want to get involved in everything, I aint really a full on interventionist. I dont want troops on the ground mostly. But...I do still believe in helping and enabling allies. And Biden does that.
Quite frankly, the left has a very foolish and short sighted view of the world. They can't make the hard decisions needed to act in America's best interests. They're blinded by morality and often a sense of "DAE America is actually bad?" Leftists can be good at a lot of things, but their blind morals and empathy are an issue at times. We need to be practical. And to some extent, we need to get our hands dirty with foreign policy to actually keep us and the parts of the world we are allied with safe. The world isnt always a nice place, and I'm not saying we shouldnt try to make it better, but again, logistics. And when you think stuff through, I just go back to realizing "oh crap, Biden's right" and let him do what he's doing.
So centrists are going to score very well, and leftists are going to bomb here hard.
Ideology/Worldview - 20 points
This is a big thing I deem very important, and it's kind of a combination of the above metrics, but more philosophical and abstract in nature. I am looking for people who think like me, on economics, on social issues, on foreign policy. As I see it, people who are similar to me philosophically, are going to make similar decisions to me, because their minds will work similarly. This doesn't always work. Take Yang. He's a UBI supporting human centered capitalist but then he implodes because he keeps selling out his issues to work with others. Which brings us to the next metric in a minute, but first, to finish this up. I'd say, generally, economics is gonna have the biggest impact here, although diverging opinions on social policy or foreign policy will have impacts. Centrists end up doing kinda meh on it. I give them like a 8-12 depending on how progressive they are. Sometimes more toward 12 these days as they ARE moving left and we ARE seeing some bernie ideology in there. Leftists often score higher, up to 16 (keep in mind the differences on work, UBI, etc.), although lately with the foreign policy thing, and the wokeness, that is dragging them down closer to like 13-15. So....we can see...how the center is moving left, and the left moving too left is actually hurting is, to the point that they're scoring more similarly than they would otherwise. And then if the person in question professes hardcore communism that can hurt them more. So....centrist dems score okay, but then leftists are starting to score only...okay. See how it ends up breaking even somewhat?
Consistency/commitment to progressive goals- 10 points
What good is support for progressive goals if you dont stick by them? Originally, this was intended to differentiate between Bernie and what I called a "fauxgressive", someone who faked left, but would run to the center post election time. However, it also just tests for the ability to follow through in general. If you stick to progressive campaign promises, you do well, if you pull a yang and you wonder what happened to UBI, M4A, and human centered capitalism in his platform (you knew this was coming), then yeah. I'm not gonna think very highly of you here.
And of course, to some extent, it's commitment to MY goals. So if you say you're for UBI but you're lukewarm about it, I will note that here.
Leftists generally score a little higher here, although Biden hasn't done bad at all. Again, gap is closing.
Experience/competence- 10 points
I mean, look, we need people in office who know what they're doing. Moderate, establishment democrats tend to have experience in lower office. They were congresspeople, mayors, governors, etc. Leftists CAN have experience, like, say, Bernie or Warren, but many don't. And that lack of experience comes through in mediocre policy implementations (if they even know what they're doing, a lot of them have NO clue). I mean, I'm not saying it isnt possible for people to learn on the job. But ultimately, I do give an edge to candidates who know what they're doing, like Yang. A huge issue with virtually all lefties in the 2024 race is they do HORRIBLE here. Dean Phillips was a congressperson, but Cornel West, Jill Stein, Marianne Williamson, they aren't people with good experience at public policy. At best they're emulating Bernie (for the record outside of UBI most of my policies come directly from Bernie's 2020 campaign), and at worst, they have no idea what they're doing. And it's often difficult to if they even know what they're doing.
So the center does well here and the left...bombs.
Not acting as a spoiler- 10 points
Look, donald trump is a threat to democracy, and I'm going to favor candidates who run as democrats over candidates who don't. This is why Marianne Williamson and Dean phillips often get better ratings than people like Jill Stein and Cornel west. It's not the whole reason, but we can see why Biden would be favored here. It's gonna favor Biden. Because stopping trump is a priority.
As such, let's compare a generic 2024 establishment democrat vs a generic 2024 leftist:
Basic income support:
Establishment dem- 2 points
Leftist- 3 points
The establishment dem is gonna have nominal support for a child tax credit expansion. So might the leftist, but no guarantee. At best they might discuss about maybe investigating UBI but no real promises to implement it.
Medicare for all support:
Establishment dem- 3 points
Leftist- 10 points
This is the one area the leftist excels on. Medicare for all support is a common tenet of leftist economic platforms, while centrist dems tend to maybe virtue signal a public option but not do a ton on it.
Economic issues:
Establishment dem- 8 points
Leftist- 10 points
The leftist edges out the establishment dem, but the establishment dem will likely have strong union support, support for a $15 minimum wage, some student debt forgiveness, free community college, a decent climate plan, and maybe some action on housing. I mean, they're not bad. They are moving left and Bernie's mark on the party is being felt here. Just a few years ago, none of this stuff was the standard of any democratic politician. So the establishment has triangulated enough to narrow the gap here where being further left is no longer enough for the leftists to claim credit for in the big picture scheme of things.It helps, but only by a little.
Social issues:
Establishment dem- 9 points
Leftist- 8 points
The establishment dem and the leftist are very similar. But the establishment dem's moderation helps a little more as they're not gonna lean as much into identity politics and wokeness. Other than that, both are largely agreeable to me but may run afoul of my ideals on some policies like guns or maybe immigration if they go too far left.
Foreign policy issues:
Establishment dem- 9 points
Leftist- 2 points
I generally think most establishment dems know what they're doing. Leftists though? Nah man, leftists are insane. So insane that it completely counteracts their typical M4A advantage with me.
Ideology/worldview:
Establishment dem- 11 points
Leftist- 14 points
An establishment dem is gonna be kinda meh for me, but these days, factoring in their mild advantages on social issues and massive advantage on foreign policy, I'm going to kinda come around to liking them. They lose on economics, and in 2020, admittedly economics was a bigger issue for me where the difference widened. But again, liberals are moving a little to the left here. And leftists still aren't perfect. If anything their failures on foreign policy and wokeness have been dragging them down slightly, and keep in mind they're STILL not what I really want on economics. They have an advantage, but it's not a massive one.
Commitment to progressive goals:
Establishment dem- 5 points
Leftist- 8 points
Establishment democrats do propose mildly progressive legislation and have done a decent job sticking to campaign promises. They're not perfect, nor will I get everything I want from them, but they're not full on selling out. Leftists do better here. But again, still not perfect, due to being fair weather on UBI and me not being sure their policies are actually pragmatic.
Experience/competence:
Establishment dem- 8 points
Leftist- 3 points
Again, establishment dems come from experienced backgrounds and seem very professional with their approach toward politics. I expect them to generally know what they're doing, with even relatively inexperienced candidates being decent at the job. Leftists, however, seem to come from outside of "the system" and very few want to work their way up. To some extent this can work out well on other metrics. Sometimes the system and corrupt people, make people less able to be effective toward change, and the like, but a lot of them really don't seem to know what they're doing. It's all feels and vibes and many of them don't even have policy details to their policies. I kind of feel like the presidency has a learning curve and you should be ready for it. Not just running a campaign based on feels.Of course many of these guys run just to raise awareness to issues, which I can respect, but then it's up to the establishment candidates to actually try to make workable versions of these policies to discourage people from voting for lefties.
Not playing a spoiler:
Establishment dem- 10 points
Leftist- 0 points
While some leftists can run within the democratic party, for the most part, a lot of them aren't. And that does run the risk of throwing the election to the republican. During a normal election cycle, such an action might be seen as justifiable. I mean, the goal is to get the democrats to notice us and make them address issues we care about and are passionate about. but it is a risky strategy, and with Trump being a literal existential threat to democracy, I gotta pass on this strategy somewhat this time. And yes, this does mean democrats, including leftist ones like Williamson, will get an advantage over those who don't run as democrats.
As such, let's really tally up the total here and see how this works in practice:
Establishment dem- 65/100
Leftist- 58/100
As such, the establishment dems just seem to...have it more together than the leftists. I mean, let's go over every individual point that I think is relevant here.
1) The establishment dems have shifted left
Ladies and gentlemen, we have been heard! Somewhat. The whole point of protest voting in 2016, was to push the dems left and get them to notice us on certain policies. And while they haven't conceded on everything, they are offering a good enough package of economic policies to blunt the natural advantage leftists have on economics.
2) The left doesn't embrace UBI
This makes a big deal...for ME. UBI is my #1 policy, and sadly, the left isnt really much closer to implementing it than the center is. That does kind of kill my appeal. With the dems shifting left on other policies, the only one on the economic front that really stands out as a grabber is medicare for all. Even then, if the dems pushed a really good public option, they could still win me there reasonably well too. But yeah, less jobism, more UBI.
3) The left is leaning into a lot of cringey ideas
I've said it before, I'll say it again. Lay off the literal socialism. Lay off the wokeness, and lay off the extremist foreign policy stuff.
ESPECIALLY the foreign policy stuff. The left going all "America bad" and being super pro palestine and making this a huge issue is actually really hurting them in my eyes. It doesn't make me more likely to vote for them, it makes me LESS likely. As the dems move somewhat left, the left is also moving left, where the dems are treading into territory I find somewhat comfortable, while the left is leaning into stuff I don't really like. I don't want LITERAL SOCIALISM OR COMMUNISM. Wokeness turns me off. The free palestine stuff turns me off. And having an obnoxious purity testy attitude on ALL that stuff majorly turns me off. It might not always show up in the metrics given how flawed the center still is, but even when the center isn't amazing, the left is struggling to really differentiate themselves in a positive way. For everything they do right, they do something else wrong, and it actually backfires and hurts them MORE.
4) The experience/competence issue (or lack thereof)
Look, I know the centrists poisoned the well with the terms "pragmatism" and stuff like that in 2016, with them using them in bad faith vs Bernie to promote mediocre ideas while Bernie's ideas were perfectly doable, but as the left is forced to move on from Bernie, as Bernie is in his 80s and working WITH the establishment dems (and is THE reason, the democratic party IS as far left as it is now), the left is experiencing some brain drain. It doesnt have a crop of candidates who can fill Bernie's shoes. Most leftists these days are feels and populist vibes and anti capitalist rhetoric with no practical way to accomplish anything policy wise. Leftist candidates DO NOT have prior experience in lower office, they do NOT even have decent policy credentials. When they explain their policies I often am somewhat negative toward certain details of them, and many of them this cycle dont even give details in the first place.
This hurts them, bad.
5) The risk of running third party
Look, I'm gonna say it, I respect Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips for trying to run within the party, and I still plan on voting for Marianne in the primary here in April, despite her shortcomings. But as far as a third party candidate goes? I'm not really feeling a protest vote. Trump is dangerous, he really is bad, he really is a threat to democracy, and stopping him is a top priority of mine. I'm not gonna protest vote unless the dems are pissing me off, and/or the left can do a better job. I dont think it's impossible for the left to overcome a 10 point advantage if the right candidate comes along, but for the reasons above, they haven't. For every advantage they still have, they have another liability, and at best it's kind of a dead heat between them and the establishment dems. And with me being reluctant to vote third party this time unless the candidate is REALLY REALLY crazy good, well, you can see how that plays out.
The fact is, this election cycle, going for Biden, the establishment candidate, IS the right move. He has triangulated left enough to earn my vote and has considerable advantages over outsider leftist candidates that really are playing a role in this election. The fact is, 2024 isnt 2016 or 2020. The establishment HAS moved somewhat left. The left HAS gotten too far left and still doesn't embrace my one signature policy that could get me on board. The left seems to run on feels and progressive wish lists, and is going ride or die on palestine, even though that's a whole ton of cringe, and yeah, they're just not differentiating themselves in a positive way from the Joe Biden administration. Sure, they support medicare for all and are to Biden's left on economics, but their lack of experience and policy expertise and cringey foreign policy takes, are just as large liabilities. Even without the 10 point advantage I give the establishment dems, we're still talking 55 vs 58. It's close. Sure, the left would have an edge in that scenario, but nothing that really makes me enthusiastic. And given the threat of Trump, yeah, that tips it for the center.
So...that said, to all the leftists who read this, sorry, you might think I'm a sell out or whatever, but you still gotta earn my vote and this time you haven't. The above gives a list of reasons why, and what you need to work on. Try again in 4 years, this time, I'm solidly in the pro Biden camp.
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