Saturday, March 23, 2024

Reality checking progressives: no, ranked choice voting won't guarantee we win elections

 So, I just saw some leftists arguing AGAINST ranked choice voting on the basis that it won't necessarily win the left progressives, and might actually favor moderate candidates over them. Their argument comes from this study, which cites that:

-Extreme candidates were not considered more electable than moderate candidates

-Moderate candidates were considered pretty electable

-Conservatives were more likely to favor extreme candidates than liberals were

Honestly, I see these results, and say "no crap." I mean, Yang has long argued that while RCV is a way to break the duopoly, it's also a way to allegedly "save america" by encouraging moderates to be elected over relatively extremist candidates. Keep in mind, yang isn't just about UBI and human centered capitalism these days, his forward pitch was framed as moderate and he actually abandoned a lot of his original ideals for the sake of breaking the duopoly and "saving democracy" from extremist ideologues like Trump. Generally speaking, more moderate candidates in a ranked choice environment are going to have more appeal than more extreme candidates, and I recognize this. 

So why support ranked choice voting? It's more about the principle of the matter. As it stands, lefties are typically forced to work within the democratic party whether we want to or not. If we run as democrats, we basically rely on their infrastructure, and then they screw us every step of the way and then promote their preferred candidate, who wins by virtue of being the default option. The media is complicit in promoting candidates to raise public awareness of them, while suppressing candidates the party leadership doesn't want to get any attention.

And then when the general comes around, and people point out their dissatisfaction, they turn around and say we have to vote for them or else, basically forcing left wing voters into a moral dilemma of voting their principles or voting for the "lesser evil", with most choosing the lesser evil, at least on the left (we can come back and visit the differences between conservatives and liberals later, as there are some cultural differences I've discussed in the past). 

Basically, I support ranked choice voting because I'm the kind of person who, when I don't get my way, I like to take my ball and go home. I hate this gaslighting bullcrap the democrats do of making us vote for lesser evils, especially after they stop leftie candidates from getting any attention at all. I hate the cult of voting for the lesser evil, and the culture of voting blue no matter who. I was gonna discuss it later but I might as well discuss it now. When I was conservative, this culture didnt exist on the right, you were encouraged to vote your conscience and while there was some lesser evilism in the minds of hardline conservative voters in 2008 and 2012, if you voted third party, that was fine. We actually had a culture, with the rise of the tea party, to drive the moderates out of our presence, and to run them out of office. I remember this dude named Arlen Specter, who basically was our Kyrsten Sinema at the time. Basically, he was called a RINO, he tried switching parties to save himself from a primary challenge, and then he ended up losing and getting run out of office. We held our moderates to account and drove them out of office, and then I left the GOP because they got too extreme for me and I changed my ideals due to various shifts I made in 2012. But then in 2016 the culture I came across on the democratic side was a lot different and voters were a lot less willing to confront moderates and run them out of office, if anything they embraced moderates and were openly hostile toward progressives, which is why I got disillusioned from them. The reason I am so willing to vote third party is because as an ex conservative, I know not to take crap off of candidates who pull that crap on me, and I know the proper response to someone trying to hold democracy hostage is to basically run them out of office and punish them for even trying that crap. Only reason I concede now is because trump is a special case, and because in some ways I like Biden over the current crop of leftists, but I digress. 

Either way, even if I would support Biden this time, I support more choice. I want ranked choice voting. I want anyone who wants to to run for office on their ideals and for people to just vote for the best candidate for the job. I understand that the best way to dethrone democrats who rely on lesser evil voting is by not voting for them, but by voting for your principles. And that's what RCV offers, nothing more, nothing less. I would be able to vote my principles, vote for who I want to vote for, even rank the choices as per my preference, and THEN, whoever wins, wins.

It doesn't mean that my preferred candidate will win. It just means my candidate will be able to compete on more even ground. If voters are unhappy with one party, they can seamlessly shift to another and vote for their old party as their 2nd or 3rd choice or something. But it would allow us to vote our principles. None of this lesser evil crap. We all get our say, and whoever wins, wins, that's democracy.

To leftists unhappy with this, I have to ask, do you care about democracy or not? Or do you just wanna win at all costs? I have to ask because sometimes leftists scare me when they talk like this. I can see why communism ended up being so oppressive just looking at leftists online, because a lot of them dont care about democracy and our institutions doing their job, they just wanna win at all costs and if they have to force their ideas down the throats of a populace who doesn't actually like or agree with them, then so be it. And that scares me. 

I mean, again, RCV just stops frickers like the DNC from denying us our democratic vote. It stops us from being forced to compete in their rigged primary system and then being told we have to support their crappy neoliberal candidate or else. Nothing more, nothing less.

If leftists wanna win in a system of ranked choice voting, they have to actually win by their own merits. They have to sell their vision to the public. They have to convince the voters why they should vote for them, and not the other guy. All RCV does is even the playing field and stop parties from using their institutional power to bully voters. It doesn't mean we'll win.

Heck, given the cultural differences between the parties, that's why the right will be more likely to vote for extremists than the left. because a lot of people on the right actually believe in the more extreme candidates. On the left, most are moderate. Even when there was RCV in the democratic mayoral primary in NYC, Eric Adams, the establishment candidate, still won. The progressive candidate came in third, and Yang came in fourth. Heck, realizing Yang didn't have a lane in the democratic party is why I supported him leaving it. let him start his own party with his own platform, let him compete outside of the DNC's ecosystem. I doubt he would win, but ya know what? Because I'm normally a principled voter, I would vote for him. And if we had RCV, he would be a top option for me (well, before he moderated so hard he made Joe Biden comparatively attractive). 

The fact is, progressives arent a majority of voters. Most voters are conservatives and moderates. Progressives are maybe 16% of the population (1/6th). And that's enough to start a party, but it won't win you a majority any time soon. But you know what? If we took "electability" and lesser evilism off the table, it would allow people who would otherwise vote for a progressive, but votes for a moderate for strategic reasons to vote their principles. But that doesn't guarantee a win.

In terms of democracy, I want a system where I can vote for who I actually want. Even if I'm forced to vote between several lesser evil candidates (like I would this election, where I'm not super thrilled with Biden but also not with his opposition on the left either), I would still be able to rank candidates as I want, and let the best person win. I won't necessarily win. Progressives won't necessarily win. hell, this election, I think progressives have little to no sway in part due to a lack of charismatic candidates, and in part because they're getting too extreme and batcrap insane. I mean, literal socialism? The free palestine stuff? No thanks. 

And you know what? Even in candidates with more open voting systems, the left is having issues winning. Europe is shifting to the right, mostly over immigration and a backlash to neoliberalism. if anything the leftist governments I saw get elected in the mid-late 2010s mostly showed themselves to be ineffective so now they're trying something different and people are lurching to the right. Maybe in 5-10 years things will shift back the other way, but yeah. In germany, the most popular party is actually the CSU/CDU which is center right and the equivalent of our moderate republicans. And this is in a country whose spectrum ranges from the communist die linke to the borderline fascist AFD. Labor in the UK has been destroyed in large part by the conservatives under boris johnson, who manages to give trump and biden vibes at the same time. In france, their latest election ended up being between neoliberals like macron and the far right front nationale, with the communists being in third place. Leftists arent really doing well even in multi party systems. But that's okay, because you know what? We live in the society we vote for. I just want to ensure it's the PEOPLE giving their preferences, and not some party holding the system hostages and forcing us to vote for them, because that's REALLY offputting and alienating to me. I dont wanna be forced to vote for the dems in every election? Even if i genuinely believe Biden is the best general election candidate THIS YEAR doesn't mean I will think the democrat is the best every year. In 2016 and 2020 I voted green. In 2028, I believe my vote is up for grabs and if the democrats want it they have to earn it. I dont like giving a hostile party a vote just to stop someone I hate more. I wanna vote FOR something, not against.

But if people dont think the same way as I do, then that just means we have to try harder next time. Figure out why we lost and figure out how to gain more votes. Quite frankly, even in European multi party systems, my own ideas are largely unrepresented by the parties that be. Again, even in Germany with their 6 party system, there really isn't an option that I'm really like "yeah this really represents me". If I had to vote for anyone it would be SPD, given they seem to be the moderate, reasonable left wing party (as opposed to die linke, who seem to be communists, and the greens, who are hardcore SJWs), but I really would like a basic income or human centered capitalist type party. Still, none of us are gonna even be close to getting what we want as long as the democrats control the process here in the US. And that means breaking the duopoly, and that means supporting systems like RCV. RCV doesn't mean that we'll win. It just means we actually have a chance to win, while as of right now we're completely at the mercy of a hostile party that is run like an oligarchy and doesn't give a crap about any of us, but we have to vote for them or else. Ya know? 

So, TLDR: the point of ranked choice voting is to give is a chance to compete on an even playing ground. It doesn't mean we'll win. It just means we have a shot. What we do from there is up to us. if democrats manage to keep outvoting me in a system of fair competition, well, what more can I do other than try to convince people that my ideas are better than what the dems offer? The point is, I can't even realistically do that right now, because even if I convince people to WANT to support my ideas, they'll still vote for the democrat to avoid getting the republican and put "electability" above all else. 

If left wing candidates truly arent electable in a ranked choice voting system, it's because more people genuinely want the moderate over us. And that means we gotta do better next time. 

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