So, time for your late March election update. I've decided we've finally had enough changes that it's worth doing a new update. It was either this week, or the next, and I decided to do it now.
2 way: Trump +2.0%
5 way: Trump +2.3%
Not much changed in the macro. Trump's up by about 2 in both situations.
So there's a lot that's the same, but also some differences. In net, still around the same story as before. Trump has a 83.6% to win the election, while Biden as a 16.4% chance, with Michigan, once again, being the deciding state. However, the most likely result is going to either be 313-225 Trump, or 312-226 Trump, depending what NE2 does. I did receive some flak from my last forecast from some I shared it with on the basis that "NE2 is getting bluer and bluer each election cycle, it's gonna go blue", but idk, it's been kinda swingy, in the past it went red, and we have NO IDEA what it's doing this time. Currently, I'm tying it to the national environment. It went 2 points bluer than the actual result, so I'm going to assume it goes 2 points bluer here. Since we're at 2 points for Trump in the general exactly, I have it at a coin flip. Could be more blue than I anticipate, but how do we really know? These are just assumptions, and you know what they say about the word ass/u/me. So, no idea what's going on there.
Now, other changes. I added Alaska as it was Trump +12. I dont expect it to ever be really in play but since I'm doing stuff up to +12 on my chart this time I'm including it. Iowa is more red, but a lot of other states are shifting to be less red. A new +6 Trump poll in florida pulls my average from +10 to +8 in the state, and a lot of the swing states everyone is looking at that went Biden this time are shifting to be a bit bluer. States like Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona were like in the 6-8 range for Trump, now they're in the 4-6 range. In some ways that makes Biden's job easier. Assuming he gets NE2, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and fails to get Michigan, he could still turn it around with 1-2 of those other states. Even though Biden's chances aren't great, look at Trump's in 2016 and 2020. Biden has about the same chance Trump did in those election cycles. If Biden overperforms by say, 3-4 points, then NE2, PA, and WI all go blue, Michigan can shift blue, but even if it doesn't, we could still see GA, NC, or a combination of AZ/NV winning it for Biden instead. There is a significant statistical difference between being down 5 points and being down 7. If you're down 7, it's basically over. You're talking like a 3-6% chance. Here we're in the ballpark of a 10-15% chance. Not great, but...better.
If we continue to see movement like this over the next 8 months, MAYBE Biden can win. Idk. We all know he ain't resonating. He's out of touch on the economy, people are hurting with inflation while his accomplishments haven't made most peoples' lives better. There's the gaza thing dragging him down among the far left. He's not in a good position. It can change, but we'd need a 4 point shift just to make it 50-50 at this point, and a 6 point shift to bring him back to 2020.
As far as third party analyses...well, it's the same thing, just shift the results of the states about 2 points and you get that result. Of course with PA, MI, and WI we end up with about the same result, with about the same probability overall. I just don't feel like doing the chart this time.
But yeah, that's this month's update. Next one will probably be mid-late April.
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