TLDR: my answer is....if we can get a better candidate.
But let's be honest, we have four possible options right now. Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Dean Phillips.
Polling wise, the argument that any of these guys are in a better position to beat trump is NOT demonstrated. Phillips is NOT polled, but the other three are, and MAN do they do bad. As we discussed in my recent election update, they're down 5-6 points vs even Biden.
Heck, we just had a new round of polling from pennsylvania, my home state, that wasn't included in my most recent analysis covering this.
In the most recent emerson poll, Biden is down by 2 points to trump in PA to Trump. Harris is down by 9 in the same poll. Newsom is down by 15. That's TERRIBLE. It could be potentially due to not being as well known, although that's Newsom's excuse, what's Harris's?
We dont know how Dean Phillips does but im not inclined to believe he could do better. I'll still support him in the primary as I believe in his vision more than Biden's, but yeah he doesnt have a strong electability argument here. And it seems like the establishment aint taking him seriously at all. Because the democratic party is a "political machine" and he didnt put his time into the patronage system they got going on there.So they're just gonna continue to blackball him. It seems like the shortlist to replace Biden, if that's a thing, is Whitmer, Newsom, and Harris, and all three poll god awful.
Now, after analyzing them, I have mildly positive opinions on 2 of the 3. None of them are amazing, but Harris and Newsom are arguably better than Biden on policy. Newsom in particular, in retrospect, impressed me a lot with his multiple UBI trials in his state under his watch. But, at the same time, Newsom is...divisive. The left seems to hate him because he abandoned medicare for all. And the right would DESPISE him if he ran for president because this dude is LITERALLY giving free healthcare to illegals in his state. And given how touchy people are over the border crisis, yeah, that's political suicide. Maybe it works in california, but that's gonna create a metric crapton of resentment among citizens who are gonna ask "where's my free healthcare?", if they even want "free stuff" at all (I'm for free stuff, but not for illegals). I would vote for him, but yeah....no, I think this dude would be a liability and would alienate wide swaths of voters.
Harris, idk, people seem to just hate her. I kinda get it. She exudes fakeness. Shes the reason I developed the term fauxgressive because in 2020 she was trying to "hello fellow kids" the Bernie crowd to bait and switch them with more moderate policies while still pretending to be a progressive. In retrospect, I like her and her policies somewhat, but yeah, she seems to be that uncanny valley of everything where no one likes her. I also have to wonder if there is some implicit racism/sexism as she does tend to be a somewhat bossy woman and in 2020 people were tone policing the crap out of her when she was trying to assert herself when Pence was talking over her ("I'm speaking! I'm speaking!"). Again this stuff doesnt bother me, because Im not a snowflake and I vote based on policy about all else, but eh....she's...better than Biden.
But that's the thing. Even if I personally like either of those guys better than Biden, that doesnt mean the country does, and the polling is clear.
And then there's Gretchen Whitmer. After researching her, she's a full on corporate democrat, and i REALLY dont like her AT ALL. She's a clear downgrade from Biden and if they put her up, she's the one candidate in the consideration that WOULD cause me to look at Cornel West's campaign more closely. Not that she'd win. her numbers are awful too, and she just doesnt have anything going with her to endear voters to her.
As such, I guess we're stuck with...Joe Biden. I mean if that's the short list of alternatives, Biden does clearly have the best numbers despite his age, and replacing him might not be a good idea.
And again, I do plan on voting for Dean phillips, i actually like him. He also is for UBI trials, and he has come out in favor of medicare for all. He's a strong candidate in his own right. And he's endorsed by someone who's name actually has SOME weight for me, that being Andrew yang. So yeah. I still will vote that way.
But strategically? Eh, Biden is probably best. I think he's the one who has the best shot at beating Trump, no matter how narrow that is. Biden seems to be the only one who can potentially unite the party in November, and honestly, we seem stuck with the guy. So I guess that forcing Biden to resign ISNT a good idea. And I can't be for it, despite concerns about his age, mental fitness, or polling numbers.
I just wanted to put that out there early since it seems the establishment is flying trial balloons between polling other candidates and certain news pieces calling for Biden to resign. I could see them trying to replace Biden, but yeah Im not fully convinced it's a good idea or that the candidate that would replace him would be in a better position to beat trump. And electability is kinda a valid concern when youre running against someone as dangerous as Trump is, so yeah.
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